neweathereye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Those qpf totals are insane....simply insane... over 2ft region wide ......seriously??????????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Roof collapse thread anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe we're looking at two different models At the surface it's a bit colder, but that's negated by the fact that it's warmer in the mid-levels. Definitely sleet up to you, zr S CT. Not on the NAM there's not..it's south of HFD. Very tightly packed thermal gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL at the NAM QPF, I would def shave it down a notch, but the high amounts probably stems from the appetizer that almost becomes the main dish on the NAM. Yeah, it spits out a good 6-12" for most of SNE through 6z Wednesday, followed by 12-18" for much of the interior. Even 70% of the 12z NAM QPF would be a great storm for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Clown map through 66... Delicious.... Widespread 18-120+ from HFd north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM clown maps should be entertaining when they come out in a bit with total QPF like this Maybe with a disclaimer saying: For entertainment purposes only? I know enough to get me by, but is this even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not on the NAM there's not..it's south of HFD. Very tightly packed thermal gradient It looks like it might briefly sleet at BDL on the NAM which means you probably would too. Its verr marginal and wouldn't last long, but it should let people keep in mind that just because they have 850 temps of -5C or -6C, doesn't mean they cannot ping in this setup. Considering how the 12z NAM is pretty cold overall, you can see how pellets could get further north and longer duration. The warm punch at 750-800mb is very potent...one of the things that is giving us all the qpf...but you have to deal with potential flirtation with sleet as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It looks like it might briefly sleet at BDL on the NAM which means you probably would too. Its verr marginal and wouldn't last long, but it should let people keep in mind that just because they have 850 temps of -5C or -6C, doesn't mean they cannot ping in this setup. Considering how the 12z NAM is pretty cold overall, you can see how pellets could get further north and longer duration. The warm punch at 750-800mb is very potent...one of the things that is giving us all the qpf...but you have to deal with potential flirtation with sleet as a result. I'm not totally ready yet to rule out a few hours of pockmarks on the face..but I think you would agree it's much less certain than it was when we talked about this on Saturday..and i was adament then that it would stay south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM clown maps should be entertaining when they come out in a bit with total QPF like this looks like a 2.21" bulls eye right over me. That would probably be 16-18" of snow factoring in poor ratios and some minor taint. I think I'll cut that nearly in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL at the NAM QPF, I would def shave it down a notch, but the high amounts probably stems from the appetizer that almost becomes the main dish on the NAM. Yup, and that's why amounts are lower on those maps. NAM is flagging IJD-SFZ-GHG going over to sleet tomorrow for most of the day, rain along the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Out of sick demented curiosity, I looked at the twister snow depth. Boom LOL That's a mashup of The Weather Channel and Hollywood: "It could happen... The Day After Tomorrow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like a 2.21" bulls eye right over me. That would probably be 16-18" of snow factoring in poor ratios and some minor taint. I think I'll cut that nearly in half. Even 9 or 10" of slightly tainted snow is going to act more like 15" or 18" of snow since it will be so dense....not the best scenario for the already choked streets and walkways. Imagine what 16" of dense snow will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Widespread 18-120+ from HFd north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Widespread 18-120+ from HFd north Wow, you're really going big on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like a 2.21" bulls eye right over me. That would probably be 16-18" of snow factoring in poor ratios and some minor taint. I think I'll cut that nearly in half. Your optimism continues to underwhelm me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yup, and that's why amounts are lower on those maps. NAM is flagging IJD-SFZ-GHG going over to sleet tomorrow for most of the day, rain along the immediate coast. Walking the line here once again. NAM clown maps have me around 12-15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow, you're really going big on this one. Scary how that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even 9 or 10" of slightly tainted snow is going to act more like 15" or 18" of snow since it will be so dense....not the best scenario for the already choked streets and walkways. Imagine what 16" of dense snow will do. Considering family history I should probably have a defibrillator on hand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not on the NAM there's not..it's south of HFD. Very tightly packed thermal gradient BDL on 12z gets to -0.1 at 750mb, that's quite close lol Just saying, it's probably safe to assume (right now at least) a few hours of sleet at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z RGEM is pretty decent for the appetizer event too but nothing like the obscene NAM...still a solid 0.35-0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What a freakin winter for SNE. Every single thing (almost..clippers blow and so do lows on inverted troughs in SE MA ) turns into snow gold. Lots of details to work out but look at the big picture. Three days ago this was almost a cutter again. Two days ago it was a big mix situation for all of SNE. A day ago maybe not so much...now 2 days out Blizz Bob and CapeCod04 may be on the fence. Definite classic signal though that parts of western/sw areas can be a lot warmer than eastern areas at the same north/south as the warm air punch -...as Will says is very potent - gets blunted as the low jumps. Classic fun. One of those deals where snow lines crash southeast...or one of those deals where Bob/CapeCod 04 flip for a few minutes and then the line rockets SE again... Forecasters nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does the first slug of this look to have higher ratios (for those who stay snow) than the second? One of the Boston mets (forget who) this morning was mentioning powder for Tuesday, wetter Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just checked the overnight models, dayuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuum what a roll you guys are on though no surprises.....AWT........it snows where it want to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It looks like it might briefly sleet at BDL on the NAM which means you probably would too. Its verr marginal and wouldn't last long, but it should let people keep in mind that just because they have 850 temps of -5C or -6C, doesn't mean they cannot ping in this setup. Considering how the 12z NAM is pretty cold overall, you can see how pellets could get further north and longer duration. The warm punch at 750-800mb is very potent...one of the things that is giving us all the qpf...but you have to deal with potential flirtation with sleet as a result. Will, what do you think your snow depth is currently? I'm started to get excited for your next set of pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just checked the overnight models, dayuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuum what a roll you guys are on though no surprises.....AWT........it snows where it want to snow. still not bad for VT. Great ratios and decent snow growth...temps 10-15. easily a foot of fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Will, what do you think your snow depth is currently? I'm started to get excited for your next set of pictures. Probably around 30"...its settled just a bit the last couple of days. But if we can get 15" of dense snow, its going to look pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i hope it rains fire on you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i hope it rains fire on you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Walking the line here once again. NAM clown maps have me around 12-15". Bob, Everytime you start a thread the qpf goes up..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i hope it rains fire on you all It already did last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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