dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1st storm, 2nd, or both? Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 There is a wicked warm nose at 800mb on the NAM...so don't get too obsessed with the 850 temps. At 45h, it has BDL kissing pellets despite 850 temps of like -5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It would be nice if there could be some good ratios somewhere in round one to give a boost for whatever transpires in round two. No mention of QPF? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1st storm, 2nd, or both? Both. Even if it is overdone, nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Both Thank you Jeff and Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thank you Jeff and Matt! Should be a great few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thank you Jeff and Matt! John, I had posted the maps from HPC this am and they had shifted the heaviest qpf north as well we were in the 1.25" in our areas... Edit: It is in the previous thread that is locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wow, MEX snow numbers for LCI: 4/8/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 John, I had posted the maps from HPC this am and they had shifted the heaviest qpf north as well we were in the 1.25" in our areas... Edit: It is in the previous thread that is locked Oh, nice, I must have missed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This does have the feel of a storm where qpf ramps up as we get closer....that's just a lot of moisture from gulf and atlantic being thrown over our cold. Those and the coastal bombs tend to do that. On Jan 12 I think I was supposed to be 1-1.25 and got 1.51 I think (according to Brian)...This could be another overperformer. It seems models will signal that in the days leading up, then back off a bit but it ends up coming in higher as long as the basic setup doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 John, I had posted the maps from HPC this am and they had shifted the heaviest qpf north as well we were in the 1.25" in our areas... Edit: It is in the previous thread that is locked I must not have gone back far enough. I will go check it out. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is WICKED juiced. Likely overdone obviously, but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I guess I should like where I'm sitting with the NAM. Too bad I have to throw out the qpf maps. No mention of QPF? WTF? You missed it--it was there. Would this be mostly rain in coastal CT? Might give an inkling of what the spring might be like if we have a fast melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wow, MEX snow numbers for LCI: 4/8/8 Sam do you mind putting that into context? i don't understand how to interpret those numbers. Thanks. What are EEN's numbers? You look to be in a great spot, possibly jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You missed it--it was there. Would this be mostly rain in coastal CT? Might give an inkling of what the spring might be like if we have a fast melt. Coastal CT gets a ton of freezing rain on the NAM run. Only turns to rain near the end for a relatively brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Coastal CT gets a ton of freezing rain on the NAM run. Only turns to rain near the end for a relatively brief time. Yep, this is quickly turning into a worse case scenario down here, praying for pingers. Congrats up north/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still … this is an attenuating system do to the disturbance(s) moving through a strong confluence; so it should be weakening the mechanics/dynamical interaction in the whole field. I am a little concerned how/where the models are generating all this QPF, locally. I remember a couple years ago there was a huge middle Plains blizzard with 25-30” routine totals in 50+kt winds in western Kansas and Nebraska, and a deep associated low, and it was all progged to move E while weakening through a confluence in the OV ...and straight off the MA. It barely snowed an inch in DCA. The whole time leading up to it I was thinking it would be interesting to watch how all that power could be dismantled but guess what … part of me doubting that could happen. Yet, it was remarkable exercise in wave interference and complete decomposition. I tell you what, should we wind up with 4" tomorrow and say only 8 regionally the next, I wouldn't be shocked, nor disappointed. This winter really ...if it ended after this/these immediate two events and lurched into spring, I would still have to give this season an A on the whole. Spectacular 45 days... Anyway, it doesn’t mean a death sentence for this storm(s) – that’s not what I am saying. Just that “I” am a little puzzled by this Meteorologically. There may be something that sticks out in the discrete sigma levels/analysis that shows that this can over-perform over the general synoptic appeal of zipping what is really only a moderate intensity mid-level disturbance through a mighty confluence. Either way ... I am impressed by these individual snowfall products. Simply hard not to rock over in one's chair at the thought of a 15-30" high QPF density snow pack, then staring down the rifle with this thing scheduled? NWS put out specials regarding roof collapses - bravo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All hands on deck for CL&P. Lots of overtime for the linemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Matt mother f'er really wants PVD to sleet it seems..even though the NAM keeps all of interior SNe all snow from belly to belly Maybe we're looking at two different models At the surface it's a bit colder, but that's negated by the fact that it's warmer in the mid-levels. Definitely sleet up to you, zr S CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the ping line may get to TAN briefly on the NAM. Like Will said, sneaky 800-750 warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How is the wind supposed to be on Wednesday? I haven't seen too much talk on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM clown maps should be entertaining when they come out in a bit with total QPF like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The fact that you and I have agreed on this from day 1 should probably open some eyes lol The thing is in the end it's playing out like every other storm in terms of the mixing profile. The Cape/my area does okay on system one, 3-6" we probably get a couple of inches in the second one too. Same old same old. It could still trend colder...there's signs to me even on the 12z NAM that the cold air wants to bleed down but that'll be a situation to resolve in the coming days. I keep looking into IL IN OH and am seeing the same rather brisk cooling trend run to run. I think that will carry here eventually as the entire system is blunted a little in the northward progression before it hooks east. EDIT BTW the NAM 1000-700 profile is colder/same as 6z...red flag IMO..colder solutions are winning out. we usually see a tick back on the main runs, 12z is almost/is as cold here, colder closer ot the event out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sam do you mind putting that into context? i don't understand how to interpret those numbers. Thanks. What are EEN's numbers? You look to be in a great spot, possibly jackpot. 4 = 4" to <6" 8 = >8" So that's 4" to <6" + >16" Here's a site for decoding MEX messages: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/synop/mexcard.php MEX spits out 4/6/4 for EEN... 8" to <12" + 6" to <8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Clown map through 66... Delicious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL at the NAM QPF, I would def shave it down a notch, but the high amounts probably stems from the appetizer that almost becomes the main dish on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Out of sick demented curiosity, I looked at the twister snow depth. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 4 = 4" to <6" 8 = >8" So that's 4" to <6" + >16" Here's a site for decoding MEX messages: http://www.nws.noaa....nop/mexcard.php MEX spits out 4/6/4 for EEN... 8" to <12" + 6" to <8" Thanks So 20+ for me and 16+ for you. I'd think you would do better than me though in this setup especially with confluence to the ne (kinda what Tip was saying)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Some Boston Met Snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the ping line may get to TAN briefly on the NAM. Like Will said, sneaky 800-750 warm layer. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KTAN.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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