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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Bouchard was saying that some guidance was putting out 30-40" in NW areas...

Where did he pull that number from?

One of the morning models outputs had #s in that range may have been the NAM.

One thing is for certain, your area out through me, Mike and Sam has been pegged as jackpot for 2 days now. I like that trend.

:snowman:

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I didn't doubt that he had those amounts, I just want to see it rationalized and I have to see that.....can anyone rationalize 18-24" imby because I sure as hell can't.

Not saying this is what I think happens but here's the rationalization.

Round 1 - fluffier 14-15:1 ratios so 8-10"

Round 2 - all snow 11-12:1 ratios 10-14"

18-24"

when a model gives you 1.75" QPF even though it's the NAM and overdone - it is possible.

From a model standpoint - NAM QPF is better for fround 1 so ~ 0.8" QPF GFS better for round 2 so 0.9-1.0" QPF and there u have enough for 18-24" NOT saying it's right or not just arguing for the point of justification.

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Lean colder and snowier..Telling ya

That's an awful way to go for us, especially considering all the data has been going more towards mixing than snow here in CT...I have yet to really see one piece of data that has been saying we here in CT will go colder...this warm layer above 850mb has not been going anywhere.

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way off topic for our area just i just find it amazing that curtis field airport in texas is at 72 right now with a dp of 52 and there undera winter storm warning for tonight! WOW!

i know most people only care about their BY but ill be watching this one all the way across the continent.

looking forward to some live streams from newschannels

history in the making right here. :thumbsup:

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That's an awful way to go for us, especially considering all the data has been going more towards mixing than snow here in CT...I have yet to really see one piece of data that has been saying we here in CT will go colder...this warm layer above 850mb has not been going anywhere.

Stop humping bufkit and the US models and use some climo knowledge and how this winter has gone so far

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Betting on the 24hr nowcast correction colder? I am too... dry.gif

Me to. 18Z's are always amped up,then usually come in colder around 0Z. that Hight ih the Upper mid-West is key to this entire forecast. if it flexes its' muscles then a colder solution will follow; which I think it will. If it comes in weaker then the warmer soultion will follow.:whistle:

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That's an awful way to go for us, especially considering all the data has been going more towards mixing than snow here in CT...I have yet to really see one piece of data that has been saying we here in CT will go colder...this warm layer above 850mb has not been going anywhere.

GFS ENS, I have been riding that train this year,

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One of the morning models outputs had #s in that range may have been the NAM.

One thing is for certain, your area out through me, Mike and Sam has been pegged as jackpot for 2 days now. I like that trend.

:snowman:

Yeah, bring it on! ...time to play catchup, and in a very big way. The snow was hard and fast today, held an edge amazingly and made some nice tight railroad tracks. Taking tomorrow off, first day since christmas, and will be there to enjoy the dumping on Wed.

Absolutely epic!

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