40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS is really juiced up for the appetizer event tomorrow. I was just going to post that for those who really like to cater to their "extreme" fetish and want to rationalize an aggregate 1-2' event, this maybe counter intuitive because it is human nature to focus on the "main event", but you are better served to focus on the appetizer because that is the one that has yet to realize it's full potential....I believe this to be the case because as a general rule of thumb, events characterized by a sw flow at the mid levels of that atmosphere (AKA swfes) have a ceiling of about 8-12" and the main event has already reached that. If this two-headed monster is to evolve into a 1-2' event, then we are going to have to see that 1st event trend into an 8-12"er, as well because the "main event" is not going to grow any larger due to the time constraints inherent to swfes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This happened last time it is a new map, but sometimes when I post it, it reverts to an old map I posted. Issued at 4:53 The attached image should be latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yup... I'm at the 23rd already (we started late for some stupid reason). Been updating my boss with NWS and other maps... hee hee! At this point might as well just keep on going..can only go until June 30th so lets just keep the snow days rolling... WOW wsw goes 18-24" here as well...damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah...location of heavy fzra accumulations will probably be a nowcast...simply cannot nail it down right now. Somewhere could get slammed, but it may be a relatively small area when all is said and done. Also don't know if there's a strong signal for more than 0.25-0.5" of ice accrual right now. That certainly will be enough to down trees/powerlines...but would be far from paralyzing/devastating. I'm just hope the ice stays away from us down here...I had some concerns this morning, things have shifted slightly north with the threat I think. Agreed, the ZR part of this will likely be a nowcast type of thing, we just can't expect the models to nail and pinpoint exactly where this is going to setup, especially since this may not be an incredibly large area. Yeah 0.25'' to 0.50'' probably would not be close to devastating but if we end up seeing signals for total up near 0.75'' or even more on top of what snow we may get that would cause serious, serious issues...but not sure if we see those types of totals but this certainly needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow.. the gfs really sucks for NH and ME.. 6-12 inches verbatim.. this Is What I was worried about yesterday.. if we don't cash in on the first one its Just another moderate snow event.. damn dryslot Expectations lowered to 10-12 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow.. the gfs really sucks for NH and ME.. 6-12 inches verbatim.. this Is What I was worried about yesterday.. if we don't cash in on the first one its Just another moderate snow event.. damn dryslot Expectations lowered to 10-12 here Learn somethings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow.. the gfs really sucks for NH and ME.. 6-12 inches verbatim.. this Is What I was worried about yesterday.. if we don't cash in on the first one its Just another moderate snow event.. damn dryslot Expectations lowered to 10-12 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The attached image should be latest. Nope, sorry, that's the old one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Learn some things. Like proper spacing of words...j/k fixed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That map doesn't appear any different...what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If you look closely the 18z gfs moved the heavier qpf south by 3.27 miles. We should discuss that extensively. Gfs is a little stronger with the first weak low/stronger with the high. Would drop 3/6 even near the coast over here with event two before a change. I guess I should have stayed with 7" total here. I think the nam may need to be burped pre-0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18-24" warning just scrolled over my wx bug.....BOX is either been under siege by Kev, or they view this appetizer as a full-fledged meal in and of itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This seems odd... WeatherBug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I bet we see the QPF distribution evened out better on the 00z GFS as it was on the 12z. Nothing to worry about and 1.25'' is certainly nothing to sneeze at, especially if we get good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This seems odd... WeatherBug I'm gonna guess that this an ACCUtard product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow.. the gfs really sucks for NH and ME.. 6-12 inches verbatim.. this Is What I was worried about yesterday.. if we don't cash in on the first one its Just another moderate snow event.. damn dryslot Expectations lowered to 10-12 here The first wave will bring 4-6" tomorrow up here, then #2 is an easy 6-8" if not 10+. How do you get 10-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This seems odd... WeatherBug Nashua to Laconia is partly to mostly cloudy it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gfs verbatim looks like 5-6" tommorow and 8-12" wednesday...sweet but doesnt really justify an 18-24" forecast. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All you guys ganging up on the same poster is very, very weak!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That map doesn't appear any different...what am I missing? 3 maps... 1 from 12:45, one from 2:30?, one from 4:53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I honestly think that outside of elevation enhanced locations, anything over 18" is a little too bullish. 18z models give 1.25-1.5" (GFS) to 1.75" (NAM) in northern MA 12-18" total is a bit more reasonable IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The first wave will bring 4-6" tomorrow up here, then #2 is an easy 6-8" if not 10+. How do you get 10-12? Excellent ratios tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow.. the gfs really sucks for NH and ME.. 6-12 inches verbatim.. this Is What I was worried about yesterday.. if we don't cash in on the first one its Just another moderate snow event.. damn dryslotExpectations lowered to 10-12 here I think you'd be wrong jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Will can you rationalize that 18-24" call by BOX.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gfs verbatim looks like 5-6" tommorow and 8-12" wednesday...sweet but doesnt really justify an 18-24" forecast. We'll see I guess. NAM/SREF were probably blended in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm gonna guess that this an ACCUtard product. frisbee games breaking out in Salem, NH while you are buried under 10" of sleet. Not sure where that came from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This seems odd... WeatherBug Maybe it is a 3D layered thing... superimpose the snow on top of the sleet/ice for the right effect. Glad it is free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nope, sorry, that's the old one. That was the latest image when I posted, seems like the BOX has trouble changing the images as you or someone else mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I honestly think that outside of elevation enhanced locations, anything over 18" is a little too bullish. 18z models give 1.25-1.5" (GFS) to 1.75" (NAM) in northern MA 12-18" total is a bit more reasonable IMHO. 18.1" here at 1K+ fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM/SREF were probably blended in as well. They must be taking those ONLY then...because mix in the gfs/euro and you get maybe something like 10-16" so mixing them would give you 14-20" tops. But Im not a met and Im not bashing box...I of course hope their right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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