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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part IV


Baroclinic Zone

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I just feel there is not enough talk of a potential dangerous ICE STORM in CT, this holds the potential to be an ICE STORM of mammoth proportions!

There has been talk, Ryan has mentioned the possibility and I heard them talking about it on Channel 3...it's just it's unsure as to whether or not it will happen, the potential has been certainly discussed though.

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There has been talk, Ryan has mentioned the possibility and I heard them talking about it on Channel 3...it's just it's unsure as to whether or not it will happen, the potential has been certainly discussed though.

yeah...location of heavy fzra accumulations will probably be a nowcast...simply cannot nail it down right now. Somewhere could get slammed, but it may be a relatively small area when all is said and done. Also don't know if there's a strong signal for more than 0.25-0.5" of ice accrual right now. That certainly will be enough to down trees/powerlines...but would be far from paralyzing/devastating. I'm just hope the ice stays away from us down here...I had some concerns this morning, things have shifted slightly north with the threat I think.

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I think if they go in for the 1/2 day it is counted as a full day and thus won't have to be made up. That may be factoring into the decision.

Yes I would agree. Half of me wants a snow day but half of me wants to go in for 3 hours so I can go until June 22nd instead of the 23rd lol.

18z gfs looks like .5 with the appetizer

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DING DING DING---WE'VE GOT OURSELVES A WINNER!!!!

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST

THURSDAY...

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...

BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...

CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...

MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO

1 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS

INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY IN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW

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Yes I would agree. Half of me wants a snow day but half of me wants to go in for 3 hours so I can go until June 22nd instead of the 23rd lol.

18z gfs looks like .5 with the appetizer

Yup... I'm at the 23rd already (we started late for some stupid reason). Been updating my boss with NWS and other maps... hee hee!

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Did you mean 12/13/07? 12/16/07 was a Miller B coastal, not a SWFE.

In any case, ratios in 12/13/07 and 12/16/07 were around 11 or 12 to 1. This event has colder temps aloft. NAM has the -10C line at 850 mb over far southern NH for much of the event. Thus southern NH and far northern MA could really cash in with around 15-1 ratios.

I agree that BOX and some media outlets are overdone with widespread 18"+, but I think event #2 will outperform 12/13/07 and 12/16/07 because of better ratios.

I agree, its going to take everything going perfectly to get 20" amounts. Nevermind 30" (from ALY)...I'm sure there will be a little extra moisture wrung out in the terrain favored areas, but the duration of the Wednesday snowfall bothers me for huge amounts. 12/16/07 was basically a 6-8 hour snow burst which is kind of what this upcoming Wednesday portion looks like now...and the max amounts in that were like a foot tops...and snow growth was amazing. If someone gets that plus 6" on Tuesday, then 18" is the storm total...that's under optimum conditions.

I'm sure we'll see some higher jackpots where someone gets under perfect bands and the nozzle of the fire hose...but I think the lower end will be the norm and those higher amounts will be the exception.

The only caveat is if this lingers longer than models show. There is potential for like 3-5" of fluff on Wed night...but that's not a guarantee.

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