powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 BTV just went 12-20" in their Winter Storm Warning... 20" seems a bit high for up here. I still like 10-12", maybe 14" if we get lucky. No way we touch the upper half of their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah if places start or go quickly to ZR it's going to be a problem. If we are half PL and half ZR it won't be that big of an impact I don't think. Significant accumulating snow on Wednesday in CT seems unlikely for most places other than along the CT border. those in-between deals are such a pain because of reality/perception issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 UPTON has issued their updated snow forecasts, seems kinda high since we have more chance of FRZ than anything else from what I have read here. They are usually conservative with their amounts so seeing a chance of 8" (while oddly depressing to me) seems high before end of Wednesday along with ice. Are we still thinking it will be plain rain at the coast and how far inland would that rain be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think it's time to lock and load a 12-24'' total from Tuesday to Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bouchard bumped the higher snow totals a tad south, I cant access his new map, I just saw it on tv. This is the old one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've got a pretty good feeling about this. Maybe I'll jinx it and get gas for the snow blower. Mike! Such optimism! We must be doomed.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 UPTON has issued their updated snow forecasts, seems kinda high since we have more chance of FRZ than anything else from what I have read here. They are usually conservative with their amounts so seeing a chance of 8" (while oddly depressing to me) seems high before end of Wednesday along with ice. Are we still thinking it will be plain rain at the coast and how far inland would that rain be? Upton just dramatically reduced its snow totals for SE CT and Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking around at forecasts, there are some big numbers being floated around. BOX's map, ALY's 15-30" warning, even BTV seems excessively high for up here. On the models it does look like there is a limitation as far as how much snow can possibly fall (duh) but when this system passes us in New England it looks to be zipping right along. There's really only a 6 to maybe 9 hour (at the most) period of moderate to heavy snow on Wednesday for all involved... it is going to need to rip at like 2"/hr for at least some portion of that time in order to get to some of these higher forecast numbers. It is still a SWFE and while a tremendous amount of moisture will fall out of the sky thanks to strong isentropic lift, some of these forecasts would lead you to believe we have a stalled coastal low. I still like the lower end of the ranges forecast by the NWS offices, even up here. Snow growth should deteriorate, too, as the -12C to -18C dendritic layer lifts thanks to warming at H7-H75. Amazingly complex, yet interesting storm to try and forecast. I agree, its going to take everything going perfectly to get 20" amounts. Nevermind 30" (from ALY)...I'm sure there will be a little extra moisture wrung out in the terrain favored areas, but the duration of the Wednesday snowfall bothers me for huge amounts. 12/16/07 was basically a 6-8 hour snow burst which is kind of what this upcoming Wednesday portion looks like now...and the max amounts in that were like a foot tops...and snow growth was amazing. If someone gets that plus 6" on Tuesday, then 18" is the storm total...that's under optimum conditions. I'm sure we'll see some higher jackpots where someone gets under perfect bands and the nozzle of the fire hose...but I think the lower end will be the norm and those higher amounts will be the exception. The only caveat is if this lingers longer than models show. There is potential for like 3-5" of fluff on Wed night...but that's not a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks Scott. I feel pretty good about my call yesterday. So far I don't see any need for big changes. have you put out a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just read box 354 update, wish they would define what parts of RI/SE mass they think change to rain, would it be just the coast or more inland into PVD? Im guessing based off their last map that the coast areas that see less than 8 inches is where the rain would be Washington County and points east to the coast and cape. kindly let me know if im wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 UPTON has issued their updated snow forecasts, seems kinda high since we have more chance of FRZ than anything else from what I have read here. They are usually conservative with their amounts so seeing a chance of 8" (while oddly depressing to me) seems high before end of Wednesday along with ice. Are we still thinking it will be plain rain at the coast and how far inland would that rain be? For us here in CT at least alot is going to be determined too on how much snowfall accumulations we receive with the first part of the storm (I'm assuming that map is including both parts of the storm). If we can see a good 3-6'' from the first wave then spots along the coast certainly have a shot to pick up another inch or two before the changeover transitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well, warnings from BOX now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I stil can't believe BOX has me at 18", thats rediculous, possible, but I would wait until tommorow morning to put that type of number out, especially where I could ping at some point. You gotta love the timing of this storm though...the only lull is from late tuesday to like 3-5am Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For us here in CT at least alot is going to be determined too on how much snowfall accumulations we receive with the first part of the storm (I'm assuming that map is including both parts of the storm). If we can see a good 3-6'' from the first wave then spots along the coast certainly have a shot to pick up another inch or two before the changeover transitions. Thanks! I should have said in SW area of CT it seems higher than what from what I was expecting given the warming of the trends. They have lowered it from the 4 am update (only about 2" in some parts of sw/s ct and, but upped them just over the border and western area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey where is the boston snowmap link from BOX? Off to hockey, what falls is what falls not that worried about it either way. With the new NAM thinking 4-5" total may be a reach here but we'll see for the two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think it's time to lock and load a 12-24'' total from Tuesday to Thursday. I'm still happy with 3-6" + 8-16" = 11-22" guess I might as well round it up 12-24" and lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll be able to join in the fun here in Halifax. My highest one storm total is only 14cms this season so far. I need this for my sanity's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Mike! Such optimism! We must be doomed.lol The part of me that I don't want to really listen to is saying "it'll be more, it'll be more". :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WOAH...I just looked at the BOX snowfall map for here...WOW. If those totals were to occur here that would get BDL into the top 5 for snowiest winters on record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bouchard bumped the higher snow totals a tad south, I cant access his new map, I just saw it on tv. This is the old one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree, its going to take everything going perfectly to get 20" amounts. Nevermind 30" (from ALY)...I'm sure there will be a little extra moisture wrung out in the terrain favored areas, but the duration of the Wednesday snowfall bothers me for huge amounts. 12/16/07 was basically a 6-8 hour snow burst which is kind of what this upcoming Wednesday portion looks like now...and the max amounts in that were like a foot tops...and snow growth was amazing. If someone gets that plus 6" on Tuesday, then 18" is the storm total...that's under optimum conditions. I'm sure we'll see some higher jackpots where someone gets under perfect bands and the nozzle of the fire hose...but I think the lower end will be the norm and those higher amounts will be the exception. The only caveat is if this lingers longer than models show. There is potential for like 3-5" of fluff on Wed night...but that's not a guarantee. I believe their comments reflected a 'bonus' Wedn night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks! I should have said in SW area of CT it seems higher than what from what I was expecting given the warming of the trends. They have lowered it from the 4 am update (only about 2" in some parts of sw/s ct and, but upped them just over the border and western area.... I haven't looked at any of the offices snowfall maps yet...I just looked at BOX's now but if they did drop totals than that possible means they could be expecting less from round 1 and a faster changeover in round 2. This is going to be real complex for us here in CT, although I think for the shoreline it's a much "easier" forecast...easier in the sense that you guys will probably get in the 3-6'' range. Up this way though we have to worry about 1) How much snowfall occurs before the changeover or mix and 2) Do you see lots of ZR or more in the way of IP? These are major questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey where is the boston snowmap link from BOX? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ I'm pretty close to the 21.6 value. -monadnocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree, its going to take everything going perfectly to get 20" amounts. Nevermind 30" (from ALY)...I'm sure there will be a little extra moisture wrung out in the terrain favored areas, but the duration of the Wednesday snowfall bothers me for huge amounts. 12/16/07 was basically a 6-8 hour snow burst which is kind of what this upcoming Wednesday portion looks like now...and the max amounts in that were like a foot tops...and snow growth was amazing. If someone gets that plus 6" on Tuesday, then 18" is the storm total...that's under optimum conditions. I'm sure we'll see some higher jackpots where someone gets under perfect bands and the nozzle of the fire hose...but I think the lower end will be the norm and those higher amounts will be the exception. The only caveat is if this lingers longer than models show. There is potential for like 3-5" of fluff on Wed night...but that's not a guarantee. I'm thinking 4-6" of fluff tmw and 8-12" thum from the swfe on Wed for a grand total of 12-18" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey where is the boston snowmap link from BOX? Off to hockey, what falls is what falls not that worried about it either way. With the new NAM thinking 4-5" total may be a reach here but we'll see for the two days. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just read box 354 update, wish they would define what parts of RI/SE mass they think change to rain, would it be just the coast or more inland into PVD? They didn't say because they don't know. No one knows where that line will be. I think we have to wait until tomorrow to know what will happen on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm thinking 4-6" of fluff tmw and 8-12" thum from the swfe on Wed for a grand total of 12-18" imby. cool thing is it probably never really ends in between the two for you. maybe it goes over to some light freezing drizzle or something in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just read box 354 update, wish they would define what parts of RI/SE mass they think change to rain, would it be just the coast or more inland into PVD? Im guessing based off their last map that the coast areas that see less than 8 inches is where the rain would be Washington County and points east to the coast and cape. kindly let me know if im wrong on that. That text doesn't appear to be fully updated to me yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like myself and HubbDave and a few others from NMA / SNH who post here may finally get in on the jackpot action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Round 1 on the 18z NAM Clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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