Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 By the way good call on the wrapped up low, I recall a few days back many were disagreeing with you about that, and you pointed out the arctic air and baroclinic zone for this to act upon. Great call. thanks Libations no victories yet though Will and Scott's and Debbie's (and others) analysis regarding climo and usual outcomes in this type of event are the way to go from here......this is where new England weather gets way way more complicated than any other region IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah your area is probably pretty safe from too much mixing being so far NE. i'd feel pretty good if i lived in BOS right now. i'm basically just hoping for a few inches tomorrow and a few inches wed. night. and that might be asking a lot. the area i wouldn't want to have to forecast for is basically a rectangle bounded by a PVD to HFD line on the south and the pike to the north. north and east of there seems like a fairly safe bet. even if it mixes it's probably overcome and is 90% snow at least. south of that rectangle, to me, it's tomorrow or bust really....though definitely some ice/sleet issues for CT on wed. inside that rectangle...that area is a major bust zone one way or the other. Agreed. My biggest forecast concern now is how much sleet vs how much ZR on Wednesday. That seems to be the big question along with whether we see any PL taint tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL who's the poster "ILOVECTBLIZZ" the man is good, the man is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 whats up with the 4 rounds of snow? I have no idea - frankly, I find all of this a bit much today, somewhat histrionic and over-reactionary. It is apparent that there is a serious risk in portions of the MV and lower Lakes ... how all that translates into NE is a big question mark with lots of now casting required, but we should not be overstating this for our local region(s) - at least not from what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Was the Euro all snow for round one tomorrow? It was right , because it even had round 2 starting as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL..now there' s a CT Bomb and an ILOVECTBLIZZ..both joined today..interesting your deciples im sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah your area is probably pretty safe from too much mixing being so far NE. i'd feel pretty good if i lived in BOS right now. i'm basically just hoping for a few inches tomorrow and a few inches wed. night. and that might be asking a lot. the area i wouldn't want to have to forecast for is basically a rectangle bounded by a PVD to HFD line on the south and the pike to the north. north and east of there seems like a fairly safe bet. even if it mixes it's probably overcome and is 90% snow at least. south of that rectangle, to me, it's tomorrow or bust really....though definitely some ice/sleet issues for CT on wed. inside that rectangle...that area is a major bust zone one way or the other. Couldn't agree more...felt this way all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro anyone? I gotta take off soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I view the BOX map as being the at the upper edge of the range of plausibility....."if everything breaks right"......I'm almost positive that back will be trimmed back a few inches across the board. I see no reason to deviate from my original thinking as the pike being the focus of a rather large SF gradient. i betcha you are going to nail this one.....seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I view the BOX map as being the at the upper edge of the range of plausibility....."if everything breaks right"......I'm almost positive that back will be trimmed back a few inches across the board. I see no reason to deviate from my original thinking as the pike being the focus of a rather large SF gradient. Ray, look at the updated grids from 1:05 PM. They're calling for 5-7 inches tomorrow; that's why there's a bump in the overall totals. I imagine it'll bump down with the afternoon update... but that's, apparently, the logic behind the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro anyone? I gotta take off soon Euro got sleet possible to Ray and just north of ORH briefly. Snow for you at home. Looked like over an inch total qpf, but I don't have the raw numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks Libations no victories yet though Will and Scott's and Debbie's (and others) analysis regarding climo and usual outcomes in this type of event are the way to go from here......this is where new England weather gets way way more complicated than any other region IMO. absolutely from will east to boston up to kgay north and east thats where the loves at besides the berks and mountains of course. Thats where the cold air gets entrenched, one of those rare cases where Taunton snows while Stafford Springs Pings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1-3, 10-14 looking good with that map. 1-3 may be light for tomorrow, however. Yeah, 18z nam bumped it up, And actually 12z did as well prob more like 2-4" with someone maybe you getting 5" out of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah your area is probably pretty safe from too much mixing being so far NE. i'd feel pretty good if i lived in BOS right now. i'm basically just hoping for a few inches tomorrow and a few inches wed. night. and that might be asking a lot. the area i wouldn't want to have to forecast for is basically a rectangle bounded by a PVD to HFD line on the south and the pike to the north. north and east of there seems like a fairly safe bet. even if it mixes it's probably overcome and is 90% snow at least. south of that rectangle, to me, it's tomorrow or bust really....though definitely some ice/sleet issues for CT on wed. inside that rectangle...that area is a major bust zone one way or the other. And me being 25 miles E of PVD? Maybe a little more Sleet/ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That area of Mass might have 5 feet otg after this event. He always has 5 feet OTG... even in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My final call: Tommorow: 4-6" Wednesday: 7-11" Final: 11-17". I hope the higher end of those work out because WOW this storm is a hype machine. I mean people at school were expecting 2 snow days and a delay. I mean, it could happen, but still. My mom said she heard multiple people at walmart that they were concerned about where to put 20+" of snow. She said she told them it was coming on two seperate days and probably wouldn't hit 20" between the two haha. Anyway, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Agreed. My biggest forecast concern now is how much sleet vs how much ZR on Wednesday. That seems to be the big question along with whether we see any PL taint tomorrow afternoon. kind of a scary set-up for parts of your area. you wonder if wednesday is one of those types of days where the transition is pretty quick such that BDL goes from S+ to IP to FZRA in a relatively short time but then is basically stuck at like 24F for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Its gonna be something if places like SNH and SVT and NMA can pull off like 7-8 inches of snow tomorrow like the Nam is saying. Then 2' will Probably happen in a lot of locations there.. MHT won't jackpot, they never do, but that doesn't means that 24 inches can't happen cause some places in NY and VT will see 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Might be warmer, but I like what I see wrt qpf. As we know, that's most important to my weenie eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This to me is setting up like an incredible, dangerous Ice Storm across sections of CT. Two feet of Snow may be less dangerous than the icing that will occur. Snow is Dangerous, ICE is deadly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking around at forecasts, there are some big numbers being floated around. BOX's map, ALY's 15-30" warning, even BTV seems excessively high for up here. On the models it does look like there is a limitation as far as how much snow can possibly fall (duh) but when this system passes us in New England it looks to be zipping right along. There's really only a 6 to maybe 9 hour (at the most) period of moderate to heavy snow on Wednesday for all involved... it is going to need to rip at like 2"/hr for at least some portion of that time in order to get to some of these higher forecast numbers. It is still a SWFE and while a tremendous amount of moisture will fall out of the sky thanks to strong isentropic lift, some of these forecasts would lead you to believe we have a stalled coastal low. I still like the lower end of the ranges forecast by the NWS offices, even up here. Snow growth should deteriorate, too, as the -12C to -18C dendritic layer lifts thanks to warming at H7-H75. Amazingly complex, yet interesting storm to try and forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 kind of a scary set-up for parts of your area. you wonder if wednesday is one of those types of days where the transition is pretty quick such that BDL goes from S+ to IP to FZRA in a relatively short time but then is basically stuck at like 24F for hours. Yeah if places start or go quickly to ZR it's going to be a problem. If we are half PL and half ZR it won't be that big of an impact I don't think. Significant accumulating snow on Wednesday in CT seems unlikely for most places other than along the CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Might be warmer, but I like what I see wrt qpf. As we know, that's most important to my weenie eyes. The 18z NAM looks like 1.8 for you. Not bad. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks Scott. I feel pretty good about my call yesterday. So far I don't see any need for big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking around at forecasts, there are some big numbers being floated around. BOX's map, ALY's 15-30" warning, even BTV seems excessively high for up here. On the models it does look like there is a limitation as far as how much snow can possibly fall (duh) but when this system passes us in New England it looks to be zipping right along. There's really only a 6 to maybe 9 hour (at the most) period of moderate to heavy snow on Wednesday for all involved... it is going to need to rip at like 2"/hr for at least some portion of that time in order to get to some of these higher forecast numbers. It is still a SWFE and while a tremendous amount of moisture will fall out of the sky thanks to strong isentropic lift, some of these forecasts would lead you to believe we have a stalled coastal low. I still like the lower end of the ranges forecast by the NWS offices, even up here. Snow growth should deteriorate, too, as the -12C to -18C dendritic layer lifts thanks to warming at H7-H75. Amazingly complex, yet interesting storm to try and forecast. Remember it includes tuesday...so its mostly 12-15" in the route 2 area for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Its gonna be something if places like SNH and SVT and NMA can pull off like 7-8 inches of snow tomorrow like the Nam is saying. Then 2' will Probably happen in a lot of locations there.. MHT won't jackpot, they never do, but that doesn't means that 24 inches can't happen cause some places in NY and VT will see 30 not sure that reasoning works the way you think it works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And me being 25 miles E of PVD? Maybe a little more Sleet/ZR? i guess i would pretty much include you in that zone of uncertainty. just seems like a really big bust potential either way. i don't know which way i would lean for that area. it's a tough call. going back to what scooter posted a little while ago...if you think about the characteristics of the SWFE...the one thing that always sticks out to me is their propensity to over perform in the initial stages...but that is always countered by how fast the mid-level warming is. seems like it's always a race between 2-3" / hr snows and a 3 mile visibility with IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And me being 25 miles E of PVD? Maybe a little more Sleet/ZR? I was thinking more sleet and ZR as well for our area, Im between you and PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Have the models been trending towards staying nearly almost all snow for BOS lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 18z NAM looks like 1.8 for you. Not bad. lol. I've got a pretty good feeling about this. Maybe I'll jinx it and get gas for the snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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