Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big but potential here. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big but potential here. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ALY's outlook for western Massachusetts: * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY 2 TO 6 INCHES...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY EVENING... AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 16 INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 INCHES. I've noticed in the past that ALY has no problem (as Rev says) grabbing balls and slamming them against the wall. I think the ALB area gets hit hard on the first event and those areas of the Taconics/Berkshires/Southern Greens just east of Albany could very well come in with the jackpot. There's some great SW flow deformation over that area as the warm air collides with the arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 * LOCATIONS: SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY 4 TO 8 INCHES...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY EVENING... AND ANOTHER 2 TO 6 INCHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea, I think with this FEMA involvement on this storm today you are going to see a lot of AFD's going bonkers this evening. It's kind of a free-reign to unfetter the manacles of conservative speak and go for broke. FEMA warnings have alarmed the system - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 But it's way warmer than even the 12z GFS for Tuesday event 1. We'll see how it plays out, closer to the storm it's been getting colder but that's west/nw of the low which we'll never be until it's over..so who knows. thermal profiles have been a joke in all models on the border of snow/non snow all winter, no reason to think they're going to nail it now this far out. Just ask BOX how much fun they've had in SE MA/South coast onto Cape Cod with the thermal olympics that have gone on in modeling. Thermals will jump around more than a Romanian gymnast each run. They've dramatically over-forecast for me EVERY event this winter and I've barely had 30 inches total IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's getting ugly. Are you talking about the NAM or some of the posts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ryan..you sticking with 4-8 tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I view the BOX map as being the at the upper edge of the range of plausibility....."if everything breaks right"......I'm almost positive that back will be trimmed back a few inches across the board. I see no reason to deviate from my original thinking as the pike being the focus of a rather large SF gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ALY's outlook for western Massachusetts: * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY 2 TO 6 INCHES...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY EVENING... AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 16 INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 INCHES. whats up with the 4 rounds of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big but potential here. LOL. Big but potentail - oh no! Not that I've seen advisories for big asses before but never a warning. You think we'll have "blowing" buts with this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They've dramatically over-forecast for me EVERY event this winter and I've barely had 30 inches total IMBY. And IMO they've played somewhat conservative based on a preponderance of model data each time. That's my point...most of these guys have been so far north of the line they didn't notice how horrific forecast thermal profiles have been from the euro to the nam etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ryan..you sticking with 4-8 tomorrow? yeah but I think 3-6" is probably a safer bet for most areas with less at the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big bug potentail - oh no! Not that I've seen advisories for big asses before but never a warning. You think we'll have "blowing" buts with this ? Your anoconda don't want none unless HE"S got buns hun..you can do side bends or sit ups, but please don't lose that butt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big but potential here. LOL. Nice....I ......like 'em and I cannot lie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah definitely model noise...of course the trick is determining where it actually ends up. not such a big deal for MBY obviously but it's a tough battle for those on the line. Yeah, I'm probably one of them. I have a ton of respect for that high north of Maine. It's that dam layer from 800mb to 750mb that is causing the issues. I haven't really changed my thoughts since yesterday. Still thinking I mix with sleet towards the end. Hoping an additional few inches of fluff Wednesday night. I'd hang myself if I lived and died by each model run, but of course we watch them and look for trends. I honestly have a feeling it may come down to a Nowcast issue for some, unless the models trend much colder or warmer. I have visions of 12/16/07 in my head. BTW, check out the 850 jet tomorrow. Very swfe like. You go from 55kts to 15kts in about 10 miles. Very strong convergence signal. Same on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can someone give me a run down of the Euro? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Your anoconda don't want none unless HE"S got buns hun..you can do side bends or sit ups, but please don't lose that butt baby got back...............and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Are you talking about the NAM or some of the posts??? Both, but it was getting nasty further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL..now there' s a CT Bomb and an ILOVECTBLIZZ..both joined today..interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, I'm probably one of them. I have a ton of respect for that high north of Maine. It's that dam layer from 800mb to 750mb that is causing the issues. I haven't really changed my thoughts since yesterday. Still thinking I mix with sleet towards the end. Hoping an additional few inches of fluff Wednesday night. I'd hang myself if I lived and died by each model run, but of course we watch them and look for trends. I honestly have a feeling it may come down to a Nowcast issue for some, unless the models trend much colder or warmer. I have visions of 12/16/07 in my head. BTW, check out the 850 jet tomorrow. Very swfe like. You go from 55kts to 15kts in about 10 miles. Very strong convergence signal. Same on Wednesday. It's a Tip special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL..now there' s a CT Bomb and an ILOVECTBLIZZ..both joined today..interesting Everyone loves you ,.....they're thirsty for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Everyone loves you ,.....they're thirsty for more Hopefully the mods check them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For the Maine peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hopefully the mods check them out. maybe on of them is confuzzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For the Maine peeps. 1-3, 10-14 looking good with that map. 1-3 may be light for tomorrow, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah but I think 3-6" is probably a safer bet for most areas with less at the shore what are you thinking down here at the beach, maybe an inch or so then some light rain? Nam really shifted qpf north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For the Maine peeps. That's a great start! I'm sure it will change some either way before go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 la epic for Pete That area of Mass might have 5 feet otg after this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 By the way good call on the wrapped up low, I recall a few days back many were disagreeing with you about that, and you pointed out the arctic air and baroclinic zone for this to act upon. Great call. thanks Libations no victories yet though Will and Scott's and Debbie's (and others) analysis regarding climo and usual outcomes in this type of event are the way to go from here......this is where new England weather gets way way more complicated than any other region IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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