Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dude sleet will make your snowpack indestructible. Not a big deal when you consider how well you've done this winter. As long as i can pull at least 10-12 out of this I'll be happy..Box has 13 so we'll go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm shocked the super cold NAM is now trending warmer. Happens every time in a SWFE it's still a pretty good dump in interior MA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah but it's degrees warmer even on storm 1/phase 1 than the others now, which I don't think anyone here was proclaiming would be the outcome. At least not that I read. If it's right mixing issues for many even Tuesday. Well at least here I had less snow south of HFD and more north for round 1 based on the models. I always feel like we see the NAM go way cold and then come around way warm (and closer to reality). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's still a pretty good dump in interior MA though oh yeah for sure up there for round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm shocked the super cold NAM is now trending warmer. Happens every time in a SWFE Wow, up here we now get into this first event on the NAM. However, I said it last night and I'll say it again... its the 18z NAM, toss it. The NAM has been horrific with this so far. GFS has been pretty steady overall, I wouldn't expect much change at 18z from the steady Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I even get .25" qpf with round one on the nam up here in VT..easily 3-6"...bring on round 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As long as i can pull at least 10-12 out of this I'll be happy..Box has 13 so we'll go with that they have a really big challenge ahead of them covering such a big area. i could see some spots on their accumulation map that are in the 10 to 15 zone coming in with half that....but who knows where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's getting ugly. The first event might be pretty good though...having ti a bit warmer might be better for squeezing more snow out of it. But I don't think this is anything other than some model correction. NAM was so cold at 12z that it wants to warm up at 18z...it might over shoot its landing a bit. Look at the trends since Saturday....there's been no trend basically. It got colder, then we warmed a bit Sat night, then we cooled down again last night, and now we've seen slight warmer solutions today sans NAM at 12z. I think this is going to ultimately end up where many of us thought it might...snowier for piek northward with perhaps a bit of sleet taint...more sleet and perhaps some icing issues south of that. But obviously we still have a ways to go. I'm mostly writing this to those people who have been high fiving or hanging themselves over every little ebb and flow of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why do you want us to sleet so bad? Almost all your posts today have been looking for ways for us to get as much sleet as possible Lol, Ryan "wants" you to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM has been a total debacle with this event , starting yesterday. ironically, this rapid cyclogenesis loop is exactly what it was deisgned for lol By the way good call on the wrapped up low, I recall a few days back many were disagreeing with you about that, and you pointed out the arctic air and baroclinic zone for this to act upon. Great call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All this bumping around is making me dizzy. Before this last bump you mentioned, I was looking at 12-18" per GYX. The 12-18 is just the Wednesday event, for tomorrow, if the NAM and GFS are right, at least another 2-4 or more now for an average. But for the NAM, more like a 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The first event might be pretty good though...having ti a bit warmer might be better for squeezing more snow out of it. But I don't think this is anything other than some model correction. NAM was so cold at 12z that it wants to warm up at 18z...it might over shoot its landing a bit. Look at the trends since Saturday....there's been no trend basically. It got colder, then we warmed a bit Sat night, then we cooled down again last night, and now we've seen slight warmer solutions today sans NAM at 12z. I think this is going to ultimately end up where many of us thought it might...snowier for piek northward with perhaps a bit of sleet taint...more sleet and perhaps some icing issues south of that. But obviously we still have a ways to go. I'm mostly writing this to those people who have been high fiving or hanging themselves over every little ebb and flow of the models. It's when we learn to high five the noose that we find peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 they have a really big challenge ahead of them covering such a big area. i could see some spots on their accumulation map that are in the 10 to 15 zone coming in with half that....but who knows where. Reading between your cryptic lines translation is "Kev even though they have you in the 10-15 inch range, i think you'll only see half of that" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJohn Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does anyone have the QPF map for BTV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 oh yeah for sure up there for round 1 The MA/VT/NH border areas are all going to get smoked throughout this event. There's very good concensus for a jackpot north of RT 2 in MA up to RUT-LEB-CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why do you want us to sleet so bad? Almost all your posts today have been looking for ways for us to get as much sleet as possible ??? All you have to do is look at bufkit and forecast soundings to see were sleeting...GFS has it, NAM has it...I'm sure the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM looks all snow for BOS still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 man...what a crushing storm for some of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The first event might be pretty good though...having ti a bit warmer might be better for squeezing more snow out of it. But I don't think this is anything other than some model correction. NAM was so cold at 12z that it wants to warm up at 18z...it might over shoot its landing a bit. Look at the trends since Saturday....there's been no trend basically. It got colder, then we warmed a bit Sat night, then we cooled down again last night, and now we've seen slight warmer solutions today sans NAM at 12z. I think this is going to ultimately end up where many of us thought it might...snowier for piek northward with perhaps a bit of sleet taint...more sleet and perhaps some icing issues south of that. But obviously we still have a ways to go. I'm mostly writing this to those people who have been high fiving or hanging themselves over every little ebb and flow of the models. Check out the dynamic cooling at 18z Wednesday. Agree with the above. Pretty much how I feel as of now. Any 10 mile bump north and south is all noise if you ask me. It may in fact come down to 12/16/07 nowcasting ..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With the 850 low crossing sne possibly, and 700-500 lows crossing sne, it has swfe characteristics. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does anyone have the QPF map for BTV? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.shtml I hate their color scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM looks all snow for BOS still I ain't mad at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like everything is balls to the wall for an aggregate 1-2' here. Lull while we sleep. You aren't seeing over 20" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL who's the poster "ILOVECTBLIZZ" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well at least here I had less snow south of HFD and more north for round 1 based on the models. I always feel like we see the NAM go way cold and then come around way warm (and closer to reality). But it's way warmer than even the 12z GFS for Tuesday event 1. We'll see how it plays out, closer to the storm it's been getting colder but that's west/nw of the low which we'll never be until it's over..so who knows. thermal profiles have been a joke in all models on the border of snow/non snow all winter, no reason to think they're going to nail it now this far out. Just ask BOX how much fun they've had in SE MA/South coast onto Cape Cod with the thermal olympics that have gone on in modeling. Thermals will jump around more than a Romanian gymnast each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Check out the dynamic cooling at 18z Wednesday. Agree with the above. Pretty much how I feel as of now. Any 10 mile bump north and south is all noise if you ask me. It may in fact come down to 12/16/07 nowcasting ..lol. yeah definitely model noise...of course the trick is determining where it actually ends up. not such a big deal for MBY obviously but it's a tough battle for those on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ALY's outlook for western Massachusetts: * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY 2 TO 6 INCHES...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY EVENING... AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 16 INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ALY's outlook for western Massachusetts: * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY 2 TO 6 INCHES...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY EVENING... AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 16 INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 INCHES. la epic for Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ALY's outlook for western Massachusetts: * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY 2 TO 6 INCHES...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY EVENING... AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 16 INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 INCHES. Quite the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My guess is where I work which is Newburyport will get about 6-8'' more than Brookline. Massive thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.