weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's fine..but it's not going to be a heavy wet snow which is what you are insinuating. It will be a dense, grainier type snow..not heavy wet snow that clings and plasters to everything I see what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z euro has a sick temp. gradient during wed. verbatim the model has like +10C air over ACK at 925 mb...with -10C air over MRG. it's also fairly mild in a pretty thick layer south of the Pike...not sure sleet is as much of an issue as just a lot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's fine..but it's not going to be a heavy wet snow which is what you are insinuating. It will be a dense, grainier type snow..not heavy wet snow that clings and plasters to everything The kind that doesn't accumulate worth sh*t. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z euro has a sick temp. gradient during wed. verbatim the model has like +10C air over ACK at 925 mb...with -10C air over MRG. it's also fairly mild in a pretty thick layer south of the Pike...not sure sleet is as much of an issue as just a lot of ice. It actually gave Kevin some ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Jesus, the SREF has been just ridiculous for the last 3-4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 &&.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... THE FIRST PHASE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST DATA FROM THE DENDRITE LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWS INCREASING LIFT ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z ESPECIALLY IN CT AND WESTERN MA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN DYNAMICALLY BY THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ITS SUPPORTING 150 KNOT UPPER JET. THIS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN ISENTROPICALLY BY A STRONG 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RIDING UP OVER THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OVER THE TOP OF THE COLDER SURFACE AIR...MELTING THE FALLING PRECIPITATION AND TURNING IT INTO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS THEN CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. ALL MODELS BRING LOW PRESSURE...EITHER THE PRIMARY OR /MORE LIKELY/ A COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GGEM WAS FARTHEST NORTH AND THE NAM FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK. WE FAVORED THE GFS BUT WITH SOME MODULATION FROM THE NAM. WE WILL BACK POPS OFF DURING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RETURN TO CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND KEEP THEM GOING THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. PRECIP TYPES ARE BASED ON THE GFS THERMAL PROFILES. THIS FAVORS A CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WEDNESDAY FREEZING RAIN INLAND AND RAIN IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE UPPER TROF LINGERS OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT...SO WE SLOWLY BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO CHANCE LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE LAST NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN. SO WE WOULD EXPECT A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN EASTERN MASS THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS THURSDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS AT -10C TO -12C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE AIRMASS THEN MODERATES FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS -6C TO -8C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SATURDAY... NO REST FOR THE WEARY. ANOTHER SYSTEM BURSTS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL RUNS AGREE ON THE SURFACE LOW MOVING PAST NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY NIGHT WITH A FEW DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING DETAILS. THE GFS IS FASTEST AND DEEPEST...AND SHOWS A PRESSURE FALL OF 24 MB PER 24 HOURS FROM 12Z SAT TO 12Z SUN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ISLANDS. OF COURSE...THIS IS A DAY SIX FORECAST SO EXPECT CHANGES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. FOR NOW THERE SEEMS ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON A SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF OUR AREA SO THAT WE WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND LOWEST POPS AT CHESHIRE AND FRANKLIN CO/S. WE WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES TO GENERATE P-TYPES. SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH MARGINAL COOLING OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT FAIR/DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Jesus, the SREF has been just ridiculous for the last 3-4 runs. is the 15z out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It actually gave Kevin some ZR. yeah that's what it looks like to me for a good chunk of CT. i'm sure it's preceded by some sleet, but that's a pretty robust warm layer with very cold surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 is the 15z out? Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Other comments on this storm: 1) Dry slot potential: more of a signal on the GFS as it is further north than the NAM, but I am wondering if NYC/LI doesn't taper considerably/shut off with the second batch as best frontogenic forcing sets up to the north. Mid level RH maps possibly threaten coastal Ct. with a slot, perhaps fzdz as it continues to crank up around the Pike. Again, this is off the GFS and I don't have access to the non-free Euro. 2) Hang back snows on Thursday. Would not be surprised to have snow or snow showers in NE with lingering upper level energy/troughiness ... perhaps a few inches. But let's order the apps and main course first... and a round of High Lifes too, obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It actually gave Kevin some ZR. Ekster would love that...Double or nothing. I am 100% sure no zr is involved here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bob that's still from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It actually gave Kevin some ZR. DXR ground zero for paralyzing icestorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 [ Well that is highly dependent. If it is very marginal, of course it will help. However if you are +2 to 3C in a warm layer, forget it. It was one or two pubes warmer down here back to maybe exit 4 on 495 and it wouldn't shake until temps dropped. Maybe 1c. Wait until inside of 36h to use it. The MM5 has been very good inside of 12-24, pretty bad outside. It's the NAM magnified in whatever direction it's going all the time. That said the ARW and NMM have not been colder most of the time, they're chilly this time keeping the 0c at 850 south of the 48 hour NAM I'd also argue the SREF's have not been very good outside of 24...erratic as all heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Box's discussion didn't overwhelm me considering were there map is right now seems like they are in different directions, to me if you blended the 2 parts of RI/SE Mass would get 8-10 inches of snow and .25-.5 inches of ice? that can't be right seems like a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is it my computer or does it seem like the NWS site is teetering on the edge of collapse today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just saw the BOX map. No wonder the buzz around here today was 20''. Holy s***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is it my computer or does it seem like the NWS site is teetering on the edge of collapse today? yea havn't been able to get a local forcast all day, goes to the difacto county forcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This was a feature in almost every swfe from '07/'08 and '08/'09. If it weren't for that, they would be Hudson Valley runners. Ha, ok... I guess it's a matter of semantics. Hudson Valley runners, to me, are the quintessential SWFEs, which this clearly isn't. NE terminology FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is it my computer or does it seem like the NWS site is teetering on the edge of collapse today? EXTREMELY slow and errors/timeouts today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ekster would love that...Double or nothing. I am 100% sure no zr is involved here yeah maybe your precip shuts down first. i don't know. the ec just looks like a big ice signal to me, for your area. it has a sizable warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not yet. Try here http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?model=SREF&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&storm=&prevPage=&page=Param&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=index Much faster updating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah maybe your precip shuts down first. i don't know. the ec just looks like a big ice signal to me, for your area. it has a sizable warm layer. So you're thinking mostly zr for 12 hours+ on Wed before a change back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bob that's still from this morning. They got the double && all over that discussion. Hard to know what's changed and what hasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is it my computer or does it seem like the NWS site is teetering on the edge of collapse today? It is. Message received from NCEP. NOXX01 KWBC 311800 FROM - NWSTG SUBJECT - OUTAGE REPORT FYI - THE FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV WEB SERVICE IS CURRENTLY DOWN. NWS ENGINEERS ARE CURRENTLY ON SITE TROUBLESHOOTING THE PROBLEM. WE CURRENTLY HAVE NO ETR AVAILABLE. YOUR PATIENCE IS APPRECIATED. NWSTG/BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah maybe your precip shuts down first. i don't know. the ec just looks like a big ice signal to me, for your area. it has a sizable warm layer. Honestly it isn't terribly different than the GFS. I see it as a sign of ice too. The difference (model wise) between sleet and zr is so minor anyway, why anyone would swear 100% against it is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is it my computer or does it seem like the NWS site is teetering on the edge of collapse today? No...it's them.., their TRS-80s are not built to handle this much traffic I guess...been slow/non-responsive all day. Man, that is a sweet map up our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ha, ok... I guess it's a matter of semantics. Hudson Valley runners, to me, are the quintessential SWFEs, which this clearly isn't. NE terminology FTW. LOL, well I get what you are saying. We just dealt with so many of these during those winters, we (well I should say Will et al) came up with a loose definition of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No...it's them.., their TRS-80s are not built to handle this much traffic I guess...been slow/non-responsive all day. Man, that is a sweet map up our way On one hand I think it'd be incredible but on the other hand I think it may be a bit overdone and I have no idea where the hell I'll put 21''. The former hand is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gray is going with 14-22 total here... Woof. WWA for 3 southern counties for tmmw... rest of the area is 1-3 and 2-4 from north to south. Nice starting point - they can always go up from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.