Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Regardless, I think 12-18 is a perfect range imby.....12" IF THE euro is right, 18" if the NAM is right. 12-18" is my final call. How about for my area? How much you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FWIW, on the NYC forum, there are a lot of comments that the MM5 has come in way colder, showing complete transfer south of LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 its pretty incredible to see the NWS offices in the Midwest throwing out public warnings calling it a 'catastrophic storm' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's interesting to note the role reversal with respects to the GFS and the NAM with regards to this event and the 1/18 wintry mix event. The day prior the 1/18 event I seem to recall the NAM being more bullish on the mid-level warming while the GFS was implying a colder and snowier solution. While it was a bit colder than modeled in the low-levels during that event, the NAM had a better handle on the mid-level thermal profile in that scenario and many areas turned to sleet and freezing rain much earlier than the GFS implied, especially in western zones. The NAM really handled the mid-level warming better in that event, probably due to its superior resolution and physics schemes. This time around, the NAM seems to be a tad colder than the GFS (and the Euro as well) in the mid-levels. After-all, it lead the way with the cooling trend with yesterday's 18Z run. This is a completely different setup than the 1/18 event in that we have a continuous supply of cold air, and not a retreating cold dome that quickly gives away to WAA. I am siding with the NAM's thermal profile based on how difficult it will be to erode this cold away, and that diabatic cooling from the precipitation will likely push the warm layer south a bit as the second event commences. I'd say the sleet line runs into a major brick wall at the POU, HFD, PYM, PVC line. It could reach BDL briefly, but I really have a hard time envisioning it getting much north of there. It's interesting to note how the NAM's superior resolution is leading to nearly opposite outcomes in these two different events. One of the things I've been saying this winter - and this may be another case - past results do not dictate future performance. All that said I agree with your reasoning. My only hold-out is I'd like to see the 18z stay the course and actually tick colder again. We are just outside of the "zone: with the NAM in terms of when it locks a general/rough solution. The GFS/Euro/GGEM/UK, not sure why we'd trust those models with temp profiles with some sort of high to the north. The MM5, ARW, and NMM are all even colder than the NAM. I feel it's going to snap one way or the other, if the NAM is bogus we'll see warmer and warmer solutions...if it's on the right track we'll see a snap colder with each run/series of runs for storm 2. Euro has a cutter at 192.. Sounds like endless winter cancel. No folks.. i did not take control of Mitch's computer Yes but in fairness he's actually providing reasons for his snowier forecast versus just calling for the snowiest outcome all the time. The EURO...yes, but that was with coastals.....I have a hard time going heavier than it's forecasts in a swfe. Ok thanks Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 time to ride the mm5 wouldn't that be somthing if it were to varify, would make the nam look warm. still trying to fig out the forcast on this double barrel situation. Box seems the most agressive ATM, not much being said about an ice threat, or rain for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And quite possibly, not at all. I know.....gun-to-head I don't think I do, but that is my interpretation of that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LMAO Funny thread, Mitchwxman has no vested interest in the Ryan Blizz Ray sleet b**ch war, Will, Scooter either nice to get some good input. Sorry Ryan but if you look back on your posts you are hissing warm just to get KeV sleet, I mean cmon VVs approaching 20 and you point out a + . 05 layer at 775 on the Nam and say sleet,We will see what happens AFTER round one, thats the whole key, everything else is moot. IMO that's being overplayed...the VV's. If it's as warm as some forecast between 700-800 it won't matter. We had epic VV's cold surface temps and cold on either side of an almost identical thin warm layer in the last event and had raging sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MM5 has been colder than a witches tit for every storm, only to come nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's interesting to note the role reversal with respects to the GFS and the NAM with regards to this event and the 1/18 wintry mix event. The day prior the 1/18 event I seem to recall the NAM being more bullish on the mid-level warming while the GFS was implying a colder and snowier solution. While it was a bit colder than modeled in the low-levels during that event, the NAM had a better handle on the mid-level thermal profile in that scenario and many areas turned to sleet and freezing rain much earlier than the GFS implied, especially in western zones. The NAM really handled the mid-level warming better in that event, probably due to its superior resolution and physics schemes.This time around, the NAM seems to be a tad colder than the GFS (and the Euro as well) in the mid-levels. After-all, it lead the way with the cooling trend with yesterday's 18Z run. This is a completely different setup than the 1/18 event in that we have a continuous supply of cold air, and not a retreating cold dome that quickly gives away to WAA. I am siding with the NAM's thermal profile based on how difficult it will be to erode this cold away, and that diabatic cooling from the precipitation will likely push the warm layer south a bit as the second event commences. I'd say the sleet line runs into a major brick wall at the POU, HFD, PYM, PVC line. It could reach BDL briefly, but I really have a hard time envisioning it getting much north of there. It's interesting to note how the NAM's superior resolution is leading to nearly opposite outcomes in these two different events. Makes sense, I hope your right, Ive been teetering back and forth with that sleet line from forecasters and from model to model run. Ill take some brief pinging but hopefully the majority falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How about for my area? How much you thinking? Two event total of 6-12"...large net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's sunny here. You know what I mean This is going to be disastrous at least here in CT...heavy wet snow, mixing with sleet and freezing rain...not going to be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FWIW, on the NYC forum, there are a lot of comments that the MM5 has come in way colder, showing complete transfer south of LI... http://www.americanw...post__p__404859 I think it's A: outside its range and B: I believe that it has a cold bias..pretty sure I saw that mentioned somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 IMO that's being overplayed...the VV's. If it's as warm as some forecast between 700-800 it won't matter. We had epic VV's cold surface temps and cold on either side of an almost identical thin warm layer in the last event and had raging sleet. Well that is highly dependent. If it is very marginal, of course it will help. However if you are +2 to 3C in a warm layer, forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You know what I mean This is going to be disastrous at least here in CT...heavy wet snow, mixing with sleet and freezing rain...not going to be pretty. Heavy wet snow? Temps will be in the 20's over all of interior CT regardless of p-type for the entire event..so if it's snow..it ain't wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well that is highly dependent. If it is very marginal, of course it will help. However if you are +2 to 3C in a warm layer, forget it. What time you have this pegged for starting tonight/early tomorrow? I'm thinking maybe 4-:5:00am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THEHEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO BE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS...BUT THE NAM HASA BIT MORE OOMPH IN ITS DYNAMICS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THISCOMPLEX WINTER STORM COMPLEX. BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE RESULT OF THEHIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM CAPTURING MORE OF THE LOW-LEVELFRONTOGENESIS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW EXCELLENT MOISTURE ANDVERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL.WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THEDAY SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wednesday event is more of a pseudo Miller b than a swfe Agreed... show me the SW flow once the coastal takes over. Miller As crush everyone up and down the coast, Miller Bs typically form just in time for PHL/NYC and areas N & E... this is like a HFD and North storm. Miller C? Miller High Life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What time you have this pegged for starting tonight/early tomorrow? I'm thinking maybe 4-:5:00am I'd say 5-6am for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Agreed... show me the SW flow once the coastal takes over. Miller As crush everyone up and down the coast, Miller Bs typically form just in time for PHL/NYC and areas N & E... this is like a HFD and North storm. Miller C? Miller High Life? LOL...plus even coastal areas that mix or flip turn back to accumulating snow and that doesn't happen on a SWFE event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Agreed... show me the SW flow once the coastal takes over. Miller As crush everyone up and down the coast, Miller Bs typically form just in time for PHL/NYC and areas N & E... this is like a HFD and North storm. Miller C? Miller High Life? With the 850 low crossing sne possibly, and 700-500 lows crossing sne, it has swfe characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MM5 has been colder than a witches tit for every storm, only to come nw. Wait until inside of 36h to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How about for my area? How much you thinking? 3-5 first batch then 4-6 with some taint. 7-11 would be my first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With the 850 low crossing sne possibly, and 700-500 lows crossing sne, it has swfe characteristics. Its like a 70/30 or 80/20 hybrid...its basically a SWFE. It tries to get some mid-level Atlantic inflow at the last second...esp up in CNE/NNE but that happens in just about all SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Heavy wet snow? Temps will be in the 20's over all of interior CT regardless of p-type for the entire event..so if it's snow..it ain't wet Take a look at the temperature profile aloft, the only locations that will see fluffier snow will be well to our north, with that temp profile over us this snow is going to be more wet and heavy in nature. Plus we will be dealing with mixing issues...I don't care that the 850 0C line went further south this run, I don't give a damn if it went to freaking FL...the warm layer is above that and virtually has always been...bufkit shows this as do forecast soundings. We may end up avoiding the ZR threat but we see snow/sleet and the snow will be heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With the 850 low crossing sne possibly, and 700-500 lows crossing sne, it has swfe characteristics. Yes, but there is also a popping coastal and very cold air in E. Canada... kind of anti-SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Take a look at the temperature profile aloft, the only locations that will see fluffier snow will be well to our north, with that temp profile over us this snow is going to be more wet and heavy in nature. Plus we will be dealing with mixing issues...I don't care that the 850 0C line went further south this run, I don't give a damn if it went to freaking FL...the warm layer is above that and virtually has always been...bufkit shows this as do forecast soundings. We may end up avoiding the ZR threat but we see snow/sleet and the snow will be heavy. That's fine..but it's not going to be a heavy wet snow which is what you are insinuating. It will be a dense, grainier type snow..not heavy wet snow that clings and plasters to everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gray is going with 14-22 total here... Woof. WWA for 3 southern counties for tmmw... rest of the area is 1-3 and 2-4 from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Chi town gonna rock later!! BLIZZARD CONDITIONS: VERY HIGH QPF TOTALS RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT THE BLOW-ABILITY OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS. HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4SM SATISFYING THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER INCREASING THE THREAT OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW. WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WITH INTENSE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AS INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WORKS IN CONCERT WITH TREMENDOUS UPWARD MOTION RESULTING FROM FAST MOVING...RAPIDLY DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DRY INTRUSION WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8C/KM...WITH SOME OF THAT INSTABILITY LIKELY GETTING TAPPED INTO AND PROBABLY RESULTING IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like everything is balls to the wall for an aggregate 1-2' here. Lull while we sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes, but there is also a popping coastal and very cold air in E. Canada... kind of anti-SWFE. This was a feature in almost every swfe from '07/'08 and '08/'09. If it weren't for that, they would be Hudson Valley runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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