Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That has to end at some point....I mean, do you feel comfy with the idea of widespread 1.5"+ with a swfe as the main course... Had it actually verified too low with melted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro ens will be colder for the Saturday elevation event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's interesting to note the role reversal with respects to the GFS and the NAM with regards to this event and the 1/18 wintry mix event. The day prior the 1/18 event I seem to recall the NAM being more bullish on the mid-level warming while the GFS was implying a colder and snowier solution. While it was a bit colder than modeled in the low-levels during that event, the NAM had a better handle on the mid-level thermal profile in that scenario and many areas turned to sleet and freezing rain much earlier than the GFS implied, especially in western zones. The NAM really handled the mid-level warming better in that event, probably due to its superior resolution and physics schemes. This time around, the NAM seems to be a tad colder than the GFS (and the Euro as well) in the mid-levels. After-all, it lead the way with the cooling trend with yesterday's 18Z run. This is a completely different setup than the 1/18 event in that we have a continuous supply of cold air, and not a retreating cold dome that quickly gives away to WAA. I am siding with the NAM's thermal profile based on how difficult it will be to erode this cold away, and that diabatic cooling from the precipitation will likely push the warm layer south a bit as the second event commences. I'd say the sleet line runs into a major brick wall at the POU, HFD, PYM, PVC line. It could reach BDL briefly, but I really have a hard time envisioning it getting much north of there. It's interesting to note how the NAM's superior resolution is leading to nearly opposite outcomes in these two different events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro has a cutter at 192.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's interesting to note the role reversal with respects to the GFS and the NAM with regards to this event and the 1/18 wintry mix event. The day prior the 1/18 event I seem to recall the NAM being more bullish on the mid-level warming while the GFS was implying a colder and snowier solution. While it was a bit colder than modeled in the low-levels during that event, the NAM had a better handle on the mid-level thermal profile in that scenario and many areas turned to sleet and freezing rain much earlier than the GFS implied, especially in western zones. The NAM really handled the mid-level warming better in that event, probably due to its superior resolution and physics schemes. This time around, the NAM seems to be a tad colder than the GFS (and the Euro as well) in the mid-levels. After-all, it lead the way with the cooling trend with yesterday's 18Z run. This is a completely different setup than the 1/18 event in that we have a continuous supply of cold air, and not a retreating cold dome that quickly gives away to WAA. I am siding with the NAM's thermal profile based on how difficult it will be to erode this cold away, and that diabatic cooling from the precipitation will likely push the warm layer south a bit as the second event commences. I'd say the sleet line runs into a major brick wall at the POU, HFD, PYM, PVC line. It could reach BDL briefly, but I really have a hard time envisioning it getting much north of there. It's interesting to note how the NAM's superior resolution is leading to nearly opposite outcomes in these two different events. Nice commentary. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro weenie maps get the 850-700 line up to ASH-2B2 at 18z Wednesday 2B2 is Newburyport. This is opposed to near Revere to Will on the 00z run. At 15z it argues for pingers possibly to the Pike, but it is extremely close. Again, big vv's may help areas that are close to tipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro ens will be colder for the Saturday elevation event Elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Taunton just upped their snow totals in a big way... I wonder why. Kevin hacked their servers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow! 12z NAM went colder here and really wants to keep us mainly all snow, although I could see some sleet mixing in...it pretty much drops the ZR threat, the GFS on the other hand, still has a ZR look to it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 horrible torch to start next week but ec unloads the arctic after it. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Elevation? I could envision either an elevation snow or icestorm out of Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let's revisit this post Wednesday shall we? Lets do it. We need to clearify; how long do you have to mix for me to be right? Half hour? Hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure if this has been posted...but NWS upped their amounts again: 18.3"....my gut says it ends up closer to 1'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's interesting to note the role reversal with respects to the GFS and the NAM with regards to this event and the 1/18 wintry mix event. The day prior the 1/18 event I seem to recall the NAM being more bullish on the mid-level warming while the GFS was implying a colder and snowier solution. While it was a bit colder than modeled in the low-levels during that event, the NAM had a better handle on the mid-level thermal profile in that scenario and many areas turned to sleet and freezing rain much earlier than the GFS implied, especially in western zones. The NAM really handled the mid-level warming better in that event, probably due to its superior resolution and physics schemes. This time around, the NAM seems to be a tad colder than the GFS (and the Euro as well) in the mid-levels. After-all, it lead the way with the cooling trend with yesterday's 18Z run. This is a completely different setup than the 1/18 event in that we have a continuous supply of cold air, and not a retreating cold dome that quickly gives away to WAA. I am siding with the NAM's thermal profile based on how difficult it will be to erode this cold away, and that diabatic cooling from the precipitation will likely push the warm layer south a bit as the second event commences. I'd say the sleet line runs into a major brick wall at the POU, HFD, PYM, PVC line. It could reach BDL briefly, but I really have a hard time envisioning it getting much north of there. It's interesting to note how the NAM's superior resolution is leading to nearly opposite outcomes in these two different events. No folks.. i did not take control of Mitch's computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro weenie maps get the 850-700 line up to ASH-2B2 at 18z Wednesday 2B2 is Newburyport. This is opposed to near Revere to Will on the 00z run. At 15z it argues for pingers possibly to the Pike, but it is extremely close. Again, big vv's may help areas that are close to tipping. Is the 850-7oo mine the sleet line... What is 2B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is the 850-7oo mine the sleet line... What is 2B2 2 ballz 2 weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No folks.. i did not take control of Mitch's computer That was an excellent post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is the 850-7oo mine the sleet line... What is 2B2 2b2 is Newburyport. Well the 850-700 line is usually where sleet may be found, but of course, it is not gospel. It depends on the exact temp profile. IMO it probably would mix with sleet about 10-15 miles to its south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Had it actually verified too low with melted? The EURO...yes, but that was with coastals.....I have a hard time going heavier than it's forecasts in a swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I could envision either an elevation snow or icestorm out of Saturday What is the Euro showing for the weekend? HPC said the GFS idea of an east cost low was an outlier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The EURO...yes, but that was with coastals.....I have a hard time going heavier than it's forecasts in a swfe. Wednesday event is more of a pseudo Miller b than a swfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What is the Euro showing for the weekend? HPC said the GFS idea of an east cost low was an outlier solution. A cold rainstorm for some..ice interior elevated west of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That has to end at some point....I mean, do you feel comfy with the idea of widespread 1.5"+ with a swfe as the main course... We got 1.51 up here Jan 12 when we were in the 1-1.25 range on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2b2 is Newburyport. Well the 850-700 line is usually where sleet may be found, but of course, it is not gospel. It depends on the exact temp profile. IMO it probably would mix with sleet about 10-15 miles to its south So I mix....but only at the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wednesday event is more of a pseudo Miller b than a swfe Regardless, I think 12-18 is a perfect range imby.....12" IF THE euro is right, 18" if the NAM is right. 12-18" is my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who cares about the weekend event, forget it, we have a major event at our hands NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2 ballz 2 weenies LMAO Funny thread, Mitchwxman has no vested interest in the Ryan Blizz Ray sleet b**ch war, Will, Scooter either nice to get some good input. Sorry Ryan but if you look back on your posts you are hissing warm just to get KeV sleet, I mean cmon VVs approaching 20 and you point out a + . 05 layer at 775 on the Nam and say sleet,We will see what happens AFTER round one, thats the whole key, everything else is moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So I mix....but only at the height. And quite possibly, not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who cares about the weekend event, forget it, we have a major event at our hands NOW. It's sunny here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 time to ride the mm5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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