Boston-winter08 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ensemble mean also pretty juicy for round 1...looks like a bullseye of .5-.75 across NCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just created: Looks like lots of agreement between them and TV mets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Especially for tomorrow. There could be a few sneaky heavier bands tomorrow...I was just looking at the 600-800 frontogenesis and it briefly for 2-3 hours gets pretty strong, especially by the time it reaches N CT and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 There could be a few sneaky heavier bands tomorrow...I was just looking at the 600-800 frontogenesis and it briefly for 2-3 hours gets pretty strong, especially by the time it reaches N CT and MA. I think with a healthy burst of waa, that seems reasonable. For the cstl peeps...maybe a little OES enhancement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just created: I won't speak to the rest of that grid but 7" total would have been my exact picky for mby with about 4-4.5 Tuesday and 2-3 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You don't have to worry about an icestorm at uconn or at home., It's mostly a snow event with maybe a couple hrs of sleet I'm glad you posted this because we didn't know how you feel about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WTNH in New Haven is saying 6"-12" with upper levels near the Mass border for tomorrow. Ice storm for Wednesday. Dr. Mel is pretty conservative and these numbers shocked me. No noon forecast on the Judge Mathis show on WVIT . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The BOX map looks pretty good to me, though I might be scared to go 18-20" for extreme N ORH cty and SW NH and out W near VT/MA border...but that idea is def gaining support. They look damn near the jackpot. Probably just my natural conservatism not wanting to forecast 20" if evidence isn't overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WTNH in New Haven is saying 6"-12" with upper levels near the Mass border for tomorrow. Ice storm for Wednesday. Dr. Mel is pretty conservative and these numbers shocked me. No noon forecast on the Judge Mathis show on WVIT . we were on at 11 3-6" S CT 6-10" Central CT 10"-16" far northern CT Ice storm potential southern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just created: Using my mad extrapolation skillz ... I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The BOX map looks pretty good to me, though I might be scared to go 18-20" for extreme N ORH cty and SW NH and out W near VT/MA border...but that idea is def gaining support. They look damn near the jackpot. Probably just my natural conservatism not wanting to forecast 20" if evidence isn't overwhelming. Some of the internal snow algorithms are destroying the higher spots near Gardner and esp sw NH and srn VT. It must be trying to peg better ratios there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 gfs ensembles aren't too shabby for interior SNE,CNE, and NNE all the way to the canadian border in VT and NH. 0.75" line kisses north of BTV and runs ENE from there...with temps cold, all of VT,NH, and SW Maine could get 12-18" with slightly lower amounts right at the canadian border and amounts up to 2 feet from RUT-EEN-MHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Some of the internal snow algorithms are destroying the higher spots near Gardner and esp sw NH and srn VT. It must be trying to peg better ratios there. you should see our NAM forecast algorithms http://twitpic.com/3v7hh3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2 big exceptions to SWFE ending up warmer aloft than modeled are 2/8/1994 and 12/13/2007. All I'm saying is that SWFE always, always come in warmer than forecast. I'm surprised I even have to recall the number of times you've posted a "wtf, where did this sleet come from" post while you're still sitting in the low 20s. In these latitudinal events being further inland doesn't really have the same effect. Signal continues to be there for a pretty significant ice storm in C CT. North of there probably just a load of sleet/snow grains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 we were on at 11 3-6" S CT 6-10" Central CT 10"-16" far northern CT Ice storm potential southern CT That's total, correct? WTNH saying 6-12" from part 1??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 we were on at 11 3-6" S CT 6-10" Central CT 10"-16" far northern CT Ice storm potential southern CT Didn't see that. The shut-in fans of Judge Mathis thank you for not pre-empting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Some of the internal snow algorithms are destroying the higher spots near Gardner and esp sw NH and srn VT. It must be trying to peg better ratios there. Hi! Just the ticket for me shoveling off my in-laws' roof in Gardner...again. Wachusett Whalloper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2 big exceptions to SWFE ending up warmer aloft than modeled are 2/8/1994 and 12/13/2007. 12/13/07 was modeled very well by the GFS and ECMWF...but it was too cold by the NAM. Many around here remember it giving a lot of snow to the southern coastal areas of CT/S RI and it ended up sleeting quite a bit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's total, correct? WTNH saying 6-12" from part 1??? Sorry, Part 1 not Total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's total, correct? WTNH saying 6-12" from part 1??? our forecast is from both parts. from part 2 we are expecting 4"-8" inland, 2"-4" at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you should see our NAM forecast algorithms http://twitpic.com/3v7hh3 WTF?? LOL, Our GFS had almost 3' for srn VT. You can adjust and play around with them. Sometimes I like to go with a blend of two or three models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Some of the internal snow algorithms are destroying the higher spots near Gardner and esp sw NH and srn VT. It must be trying to peg better ratios there. hello, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you should see our NAM forecast algorithms http://twitpic.com/3v7hh3 That's for season totals and not total accum. by Thursday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hi! Just the ticket for me shoveling off my in-laws' roof in Gardner...again. Wachusett Whalloper I have a feeling i'll be on my roof Thurs morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wouldn't change a thing on the BOX map really, with the 6-10" zone the biggest threat for icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you should see our NAM forecast algorithms http://twitpic.com/3v7hh3 Can you post that already opened up? It's showing up as a phishing site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS ensembles dump on sne between 12z and 18z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The BOX map looks pretty good to me, though I might be scared to go 18-20" for extreme N ORH cty and SW NH and out W near VT/MA border...but that idea is def gaining support. They look damn near the jackpot. Probably just my natural conservatism not wanting to forecast 20" if evidence isn't overwhelming. Putting the map up itself is gutsy since it's a two event system. I think so much of what the total is will be driven by what we get tomorrow. I also think--especially if ratios are not great--there will be compaction of the snow from round one which will lessen the final total of "new" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can you post that already opened up? It's showing up as a phishing site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can you post that already opened up? It's showing up as a phishing site Stripers or blues........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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