ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Best cold air drainage is coming right down the coastal plain of Maine. The warm punch meets slightly more resistance the further east it goes. Its still mostly a latitude event, but further E might do slightly better than a place west at the same exact latitude in this setup. You'd actually want to see the high further E for the gradient to favor E MA more over W CT...its still pretty much straight latitude on this setup. If the high was more like just NE of Caribou and moving into Nova Scotia., then you'd get more of a SW/NE snow gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MY FIRST CALL UNFORTUNATELY I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE STORMS THAT WILL BE WARMER THAN THOUGHT FOR MOST.. I THINK MOST OF US SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SNOW FROM THE FIRST EVENT THAN THE SECOND EVENT. WESTERN AREAS AND NORTH OF MASS PIKE AWAY FROM COAST :12-18"+ MOSTLY SNOW SOME SLEET COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF PIKE: 6-12" MORE MIXING LIKELY WITH RAIN EXTREME NORTHERN CT RI TO MASS PIKE" 8-12" ALL SNOW AND SLEET CENTRAL AND NORTH CT INTO RI: 4-8" OF SNOW AND SLEET THEN DANGEROUS ICE STORM .25-.50" CT SHORE AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND: 2-4" OF SNOW AND SLEET DANGEROUS ICING JUST INLAND RAIN IMMEDIATE COAST .25" ICE BUILD UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MY FIRST CALL UNFORTUNATELY I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE STORMS THAT WILL BE WARMER THAN THOUGHT FOR MOST.. I THINK MOST OF US SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SNOW FROM THE FIRST EVENT THAN THE SECOND EVENT. WESTERN AREAS AND NORTH OF MASS PIKE AWAY FROM COAST :12-18"+ MOSTLY SNOW SOME SLEET COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF PIKE: 6-12" MORE MIXING LIKELY WITH RAIN EXTREME NORTHERN CT RI TO MASS PIKE" 8-12" ALL SNOW AND SLEET CENTRAL AND NORTH CT INTO RI: 4-8" OF SNOW AND SLEET THEN DANGEROUS ICE STORM .25-.50" CT SHORE AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND: 2-4" OF SNOW AND SLEET DANGEROUS ICING JUST INLAND RAIN IMMEDIATE COAST .25" ICE BUILD UP Much appreciated. There wouldn't be all those pesky IMBY calls if more of you guys posted this type of run-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think folks aren't focusing enough on the big picture >overall both models were postive if you want more snow and less ice All I'm saying is that SWFE always, always come in warmer than forecast. I'm surprised I even have to recall the number of times you've posted a "wtf, where did this sleet come from" post while you're still sitting in the low 20s. In these latitudinal events being further inland doesn't really have the same effect. Signal continues to be there for a pretty significant ice storm in C CT. North of there probably just a load of sleet/snow grains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah most places go to pingers pretty fast on Wed I think Ice storm threat in S CT ok so lets see here the last 2 days you were saying could be a big snow sleet storm and now its trending colder and your saying its going to be all sleet wed . one would think if its colder now and sleet then on sunday and sat when it was warmer we were looking at rain then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All I'm saying is that SWFE always, always come in warmer than forecast. I'm surprised I even have to recall the number of times you've posted a "wtf, where did this sleet come from" post while you're still sitting in the low 20s. In these latitudinal events being further inland doesn't really have the same effect. Signal continues to be there for a pretty significant ice storm in C CT. North of there probably just a load of sleet/snow grains. The question for me is whether or not mid levels warm enough for ZR in the HFD area. PL is a lock for most areas in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Signal continues to be there for a pretty significant ice storm in C CT. im all for that. I might be weird in that but i love a good ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MY FIRST CALL UNFORTUNATELY I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE STORMS THAT WILL BE WARMER THAN THOUGHT FOR MOST.. I THINK MOST OF US SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SNOW FROM THE FIRST EVENT THAN THE SECOND EVENT. WESTERN AREAS AND NORTH OF MASS PIKE AWAY FROM COAST :12-18"+ MOSTLY SNOW SOME SLEET COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF PIKE: 6-12" MORE MIXING LIKELY WITH RAIN EXTREME NORTHERN CT RI TO MASS PIKE" 8-12" ALL SNOW AND SLEET CENTRAL AND NORTH CT INTO RI: 4-8" OF SNOW AND SLEET THEN DANGEROUS ICE STORM .25-.50" CT SHORE AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND: 2-4" OF SNOW AND SLEET DANGEROUS ICING JUST INLAND RAIN IMMEDIATE COAST .25" ICE BUILD UP Boy--tough one to forecast. Glad no one relies on my call other than my wife. lol I'll take that 12-18 and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MY FIRST CALL UNFORTUNATELY I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE STORMS THAT WILL BE WARMER THAN THOUGHT FOR MOST.. I THINK MOST OF US SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SNOW FROM THE FIRST EVENT THAN THE SECOND EVENT. WESTERN AREAS AND NORTH OF MASS PIKE AWAY FROM COAST :12-18"+ MOSTLY SNOW SOME SLEET COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF PIKE: 6-12" MORE MIXING LIKELY WITH RAIN EXTREME NORTHERN CT RI TO MASS PIKE" 8-12" ALL SNOW AND SLEET CENTRAL AND NORTH CT INTO RI: 4-8" OF SNOW AND SLEET THEN DANGEROUS ICE STORM .25-.50" CT SHORE AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND: 2-4" OF SNOW AND SLEET DANGEROUS ICING JUST INLAND RAIN IMMEDIATE COAST .25" ICE BUILD UP Nice write up in terms of accumulations for this upcoming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The GFS was a little further north with the mid level lows. As a result, the mid level temps bumped a bit up, but the dryslot races in quicker. Bring the dryslot in quicker, and you lose both the lift and the dynamic cooling. That is also promoting more mid level warming. Lift may be the deciding factor for those just south of the Pike. It may mean the difference between a layer that is isothermal at 0.5C vs isothermal at -0.5C for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 From WBZ Boston (maybe this was already posted? I did not see a time stamp on it) Edit: 10:53AM BOSTON (CBS) – A major winter mess is on the way over the next three days. If you haven’t had a chance to get the snow off your roof or make some extra space in your driveway, do it as soon as possible! Two storms are headed straight for New England this week. STORM ONE Start Time: 8-to-11 a.m. Tuesday End Time: 8-to-11 p.m. Tuesday Precipitation Type: All snow from Plymouth to Providence northward, some mix and rain on the South Coast and Cape Cod Snow Amounts: A widespread 4-to-7 inches of snow, potential for an inch or two more where temperatures are coldest (Worcester County, southern New Hampshire) Commute(s) affected: Tuesday evening Other Concerns: Very few. Not much wind, no coastal issues STORM TWO Start Time: 7-to-9 a.m. Wednesday End Time: Around midnight Precipitation Type: Mainly snow north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Expect a snow and icy mix near and just south of the Pike and a rain and icy mix from Plymouth southward to Cape Cod. Snow Amounts: 8-to-12 inches near the Mass Pike and Boston area. 12-to-16 inches in northern Massachusetts (Worcester, Middlesex, Essex Counties and southern New Hampshire). 4-to-8 inches south of Boston to Plymouth and 1-to-4 inches on the South Coast and Cape Cod Commute(s) affected: Late Wednesday morning, Wednesday evening (BIG TIME), and Thursday morning (the clean up) Other Concerns: The tides are just a minor concern. High tides are at 10:30 a.m. and 11 p.m. Wednesday, only minor splash over and flooding. Winds will be gusty (25-50 mph) at the coast on Wednesday, otherwise the main issue is the amount of snow and ice. Ice could accumulate in spots where it persists, near or just south of Boston most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 im all for that. I might be weird in that but i love a good ice storm Well, you don't own a house or a business. Ice is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 im all for that. I might be weird in that but i love a good ice storm :axe: Nothing worse than ice... looks cool, neat met wise, but man does it stink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 updated ch. 7 map (11:38am): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 From WBZ Boston (maybe this was already posted? I did not see a time stamp on it) Edit: 10:53AM BOSTON (CBS) – A major winter mess is on the way over the next three days. If you haven’t had a chance to get the snow off your roof or make some extra space in your driveway, do it as soon as possible! Two storms are headed straight for New England this week. STORM ONE Start Time: 8-to-11 a.m. Tuesday End Time: 8-to-11 p.m. Tuesday Precipitation Type: All snow from Plymouth to Providence northward, some mix and rain on the South Coast and Cape Cod Snow Amounts: A widespread 4-to-7 inches of snow, potential for an inch or two more where temperatures are coldest (Worcester County, southern New Hampshire) Commute(s) affected: Tuesday evening Other Concerns: Very few. Not much wind, no coastal issues STORM TWO Start Time: 7-to-9 a.m. Wednesday End Time: Around midnight Precipitation Type: Mainly snow north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Expect a snow and icy mix near and just south of the Pike and a rain and icy mix from Plymouth southward to Cape Cod. Snow Amounts: 8-to-12 inches near the Mass Pike and Boston area. 12-to-16 inches in northern Massachusetts (Worcester, Middlesex, Essex Counties and southern New Hampshire). 4-to-8 inches south of Boston to Plymouth and 1-to-4 inches on the South Coast and Cape Cod Commute(s) affected: Late Wednesday morning, Wednesday evening (BIG TIME), and Thursday morning (the clean up) Other Concerns: The tides are just a minor concern. High tides are at 10:30 a.m. and 11 p.m. Wednesday, only minor splash over and flooding. Winds will be gusty (25-50 mph) at the coast on Wednesday, otherwise the main issue is the amount of snow and ice. Ice could accumulate in spots where it persists, near or just south of Boston most likely. This is another good forecast. People need info, not a useless 5 day forecast with a snowflake and an ice pellet that tells us absolutely nothing. Everybody I know immediately goes to weather.com for weather. Yet, it doesn't say much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well, you don't own a house or a business. Ice is not good. :axe: Nothing worse than ice... looks cool, neat met wise, but man does it stink. I've lived through substantial ice storms, such as 2002. They're awesome...and you're correct, I don't own either of those things so that's why they're cool IMO. I still sympathize with those negatively affected by them, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 updated ch. 7 map (11:38am): Channel 7 says: "Latitude gradient? We don't need no stinkin' latitude gradient!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've lived through substantial ice storms, such as 2002. They're awesome...and you're correct, I don't own either of those things so that's why they're cool IMO. I still sympathize with those negatively affected by them, though... You don't have to worry about an icestorm at uconn or at home., It's mostly a snow event with maybe a couple hrs of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Channel 7 says: "Latitude gradient? We don't need no stinkin' latitude gradient!" ??? Thats a solid latitude gradient there except the little weenie jackpot in your BY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've lived through substantial ice storms, such as 2002. They're awesome...and you're correct, I don't own either of those things so that's why they're cool IMO. I still sympathize with those negatively affected by them, though... They are a stunning, sureal mode of precip, but throwing out $200 worth of food, living in a cramped apartment after evacuating from my house for 4 days, many trees on my property destroyed/damaged... and I had it good. No big losses. Many of my neighbors and thousands in surrounding communities were devastated. 12/2008 Hope to never see it again. One cool thing, though, is some of the upper parts of Wachusett are still covered in 1/4" or so of ice from Jan 14 (I think?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Canadian doesn't seem all that different from 00z. Maybe a little cooler at 12z Wednesday, but a hair warmer at 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ??? Thats a solid latitude gradient there except the little weenie jackpot in your BY. I was referring to the jackpot extension that goes close to the CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Canadian doesn't seem all that different from 00z. Maybe a little cooler at 12z Wednesday, but a hair warmer at 00z Thursday. Yeah it actually doesn't look too far off from the 12z GFS...though it has more amped up qpf from the appetizer event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just created: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's just amazing to me how we can have an LP over northern OH and have the 850s crumbling further south at the same time speaks to the magnitude of the HP over quebec and the quick transfer of energy to the coastal low with the temp gradient along the eastern seaboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Canadian doesn't seem all that different from 00z. Maybe a little cooler at 12z Wednesday, but a hair warmer at 00z Thursday. Is it being generous with qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ensembles quite a bit cooler than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is it being generous with qpf? Especially for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ensembles quite a bit cooler than the op. AWT..op is tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GEFS looks good northern of the MA/CT/RI border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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