moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Will--you've indicated ip up to NH. I imagine that would hold true for the VT border as well? That would be spot on with what ALY was calling for in their AFD (they had ip into southern vt). Still pretty robust qpf on the GFS though certainly more tame than the ridiculous NAM amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even with a track that far N...BOS is hanging onto all snow through 54h....thats basically like 90% of the qpf before pellets. I just saw that. The column dries out pretty good right after 18z. I'm questionable on that 850 track as the issue arises well to the west. It actually has a pretty big difference in sensible wx during late aftn and early evening. You lose the easterly flow in the lower 8000ft or so, which ends the more prolonged lighter snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This message sent on behalf of the MPTN Department of Public Safety STATUS OF THE STATE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER - MONITORING Good Morning, LONG DURATION DOUBLE BARREL WINTER STORM EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT… SIGNIFICANT RISK OF ROOF & DECK COLLAPSE IS POSSIBLE… This morning's runs of the GFS and NAM models are forecasting a long duration winter storm Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. The GFS and NAM models are forecasting a double barrel system (somewhat similar to the last storm). The weight of this new snow, sleet and rain added to the tremendous weight of the existing snow load on many flat or shallow sloped roofs and decks may pose a significant risk for roof and building collapses during the storm. The following forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and NAM models: Tuesday: Light snow developing around daybreak and becoming steadier during the day. Some sleet and freezing rain may mix into the state by Tuesday afternoon with 2 - 4 inches of snow expected by the afternoon rush hour. Highs in the 20's. Some icing on power lines and trees is possible in Southern and Central CT. A minor impact is expected for the Tuesday morning rush hour with just some light snow. The impact is gradually expected to increase to moderate by the Tuesday afternoon rush hour. Tuesday Night: Drizzle overnight with an additional inch of snow, sleet and freezing rain possible. Lows in the 20's. A minor impact on overnight travel is expected. Wednesday: Snow, Sleet and Freezing rain becoming moderate to heavy around daybreak and continuing into the late afternoon. The mixed precipitation is expected to change back to snow before ending by Wednesday at midnight. Highs in the upper 20's to low 30's. A considerable risk of roof and deck collapses is forecast during the day on Wednesday and continuing into early Thursday as the snow, sleet and rain add more weight to roofs and decks. Considerable icing may also occur causing significant power outages. The outlook for both Wednesday rush hours is for a moderate impact on travel with mixed precipitation melting on most treated and heavily traveled highways, but sticking to the less traveled and treated secondary roads. Storm total snowfall is forecast to range from 3 - 5 inches along the coast up to 14 inches in Northern CT. Approximately 1 inch of sleet and 1/2 - 3/4 inch of icing is also expected during the storm. Forecast confidence is good at this time. However the rain/snow line is going to be fairly narrow (only 150 miles between all rain and all snow) across Southern New England during the storm. If the track of the storm moves 50 miles north or south then we can expect the snowfall amounts and icing to shift north or south with the storm track. The Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to monitor this approaching storm and will issue another update at 2:00 PM. This is an excellent Text forecast. The local tv stations could learn a thing or two and follow this format for their websites instead of the crap they all have and video forecasts that never seem to be updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Ukie is in between the GFS and the NAM for ML temps. Probably has sleet about to or just shy of the pike at its warmest point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Ukie is in between the GFS and the NAM for ML temps. Probably has sleet about to or just shy of the pike at its warmest point. Do you know where it had it last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Eh... i would not take the GFS right now...to much arctic air in place....with that high in place...widespread ice event for SNE.....followed by huge thump of snow Wednesday....wednesday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 4"-8" interior CT for tomorrow, 2"-4" at the coast. Storm total snow 10"-16" far northern CT 6"-10" central CT (OXC/HFD/IJD) 3"-6" coastal CT not being a pain but if central CT gets 4-8" tomorrow you're thinking they can pull out only 2" additional wed.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM and GFS both come in warmer than 06z. Not surprising given the on/off hour runs the past day. This run looks more like 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you know where it had it last night? No, it never came in fully. It was incomplete last night for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM and GFS both come in warmer than 06z. Not surprising given the on/off hour runs the past day. This run looks more like 00z GFS. Yup AWT pingers to the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not being a pain but if central CT gets 4-8" tomorrow you're thinking they can pull out only 2" additional wed.? have you not seen thermal profiles.. part two is 90" sleet and freezing rain for most of CT on NAM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the GFS thermal proflies make complete sense.. in fact it looks cold based on where the low pressure is.. how often are we that cold with a low in Northern Indiana.. the only thing that is odd about GFS is the storm track.. From NE arkansas at 36hr goes NE to Northern Indiana then due East pretty much to Northern PA by 54.. weird Well the track is def going to turn pretty sharply E at some point as the shortwave gets put into the meat grinder of confluence over S Quebec and New England...its just a matter of how soon it starts to get crushed to the E which will make the difference on how far north the sleet line gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not being a pain but if central CT gets 4-8" tomorrow you're thinking they can pull out only 2" additional wed.? Yeah most places go to pingers pretty fast on Wed I think Ice storm threat in S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 have you not seen thermal profiles.. part two is 90" sleet and freezing rain for most of CT on NAM and GFS No it isn't that at all on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Ukie is in between the GFS and the NAM for ML temps. Probably has sleet about to or just shy of the pike at its warmest point. hows it look for nne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yup AWT pingers to the Pike. This should come as no surprise to anyone considering you, Will and others have been suggesting that may be the case since like friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where is the RGEM at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 have you not seen thermal profiles.. part two is 90" sleet and freezing rain for most of CT on NAM and GFS I didn't see that on the NAM at all, maybe the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hows it look for nne? Snowy...can't see full Ukie qpf on the maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Ukie is in between the GFS and the NAM for ML temps. Probably has sleet about to or just shy of the pike at its warmest point. what i dont understand is why does it seem like the cold stays on longer the further east you go such as my area vs Kevin or Hartford,Ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Snowy...can't see full Ukie qpf on the maps though. thanks will! hoping for 8-14+ up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what i dont understand is why does it seem like the cold stays on longer the further east you go such as my area vs Kevin or Hartford,Ct? The Farther east you go you're closer to the cold source/arctic high in Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what i dont understand is why does it seem like the cold stays on longer the further east you go such as my area vs Kevin or Hartford,Ct? Best cold air drainage is coming right down the coastal plain of Maine. The warm punch meets slightly more resistance the further east it goes. Its still mostly a latitude event, but further E might do slightly better than a place west at the same exact latitude in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what i dont understand is why does it seem like the cold stays on longer the further east you go such as my area vs Kevin or Hartford,Ct? Temp gradient lines run W-E with this track rather than the usual SW-NE. And of course big dry cold banked over Vim Tootland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what i dont understand is why does it seem like the cold stays on longer the further east you go such as my area vs Kevin or Hartford,Ct? (1) closer to the cold air source and (2) you're at a higher latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM and GFS both come in warmer than 06z. Not surprising given the on/off hour runs the past day. This run looks more like 00z GFS. At 57 hours the 12z NAM is colder than the 0z NAM (just about or just after the height of part 2) around Boston, Easton, northern RI and northern CT. It's been the pattern all year that the off hour runs over correct and the main runs pull back. The GFS - not really worried about it. Not sure anyone would use it for temp profiles if this were a normal year over the NAM. I think when we see the slight bump east in surface track of the developing low the rest of the models will jump in too. Towards SW MO and NE OK it's colder again this run early on (NAM 24hrs)...the GFS/24hrs is colder at the same time along the TX border. It's just not picking up possibly on the shift east further north. With this track...NNE then a hard right even 20 miles early on will make a big(ger) difference up here. I like that both models shifted the cold air east/southeast to some degree very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 57 hours the 12z NAM is colder than the 0z NAM (just about or just after the height of part 2) around Boston, Easton, northern RI and northern CT. It's been the pattern all year that the off hour runs over correct and the main runs pull back. The GFS - not really worried about it. Not sure anyone would use it for temp profiles if this were a normal year over the NAM. Should have specified, I meant in the mid-levels. Around 750mb 12z NAM is warmer, but you're right--a bit colder at the surface. Basically just leads to a larger swath of sleet/zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I guess it's just a matter of time until the next clown map...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Should have specified, I meant in the mid-levels. Around 750mb 12z NAM is warmer, but you're right--a bit colder at the surface. Basically just leads to a larger swath of sleet/zr. I should have specified too I'm just looking at straight 1000-700 for now. It's so far out and performance has been so poor on all models (oddly aside of the RUC inside of 12-15 hours) on temp profiles I'm not sure speaking specifically makes sense. I like the wedge o' atmosphere approach for right now. But as you and Ryan have noted there are red flags in the layers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 57 hours the 12z NAM is colder than the 0z NAM (just about or just after the height of part 2) around Boston, Easton, northern RI and northern CT. It's been the pattern all year that the off hour runs over correct and the main runs pull back. The GFS - not really worried about it. Not sure anyone would use it for temp profiles if this were a normal year over the NAM. I think when we see the slight bump east in surface track of the developing low the rest of the models will jump in too. Towards SW MO and NE OK it's colder again this run early on (NAM 24hrs)...the GFS/24hrs is colder at the same time along the TX border. It's just not picking up possibly on the shift east further north. With this track...NNE then a hard right even 20 miles early on will make a big(ger) difference up here. I like that both models shifted the cold air east/southeast to some degree very early. I think folks aren't focusing enough on the big picture >overall both models were postive if you want more snow and less ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.