Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Filling in for Tippy since I don;t see him around. Previous discussion Models have trended colder overnight meaning that most of us will stay frozen. 12z runs will be rolling out shortly. La Epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 north baby, north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 South, baby, south. north baby, north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 north baby, north Why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why. For some reason he has pretended that Bedford, NH is Quebec this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No need to fight about this one. Almost everyone does well with this kind of storm. I'm glad it is colder so that Kevin, Jerry, Scott, Ginx, Will etc have a chance to go historic this winter. For Bob to me mostly frozen all the way down there is awesome...hell even the Cape gets into some fun! Meanwhile up here in the not too far north we benefit from better ratios via deformation even if qpf is a little lower. HPC btw, hasn't reduced qpf at all right up to Jeff?Dryslot. And even NNE is getting a good snowstorm which they need. Eric does well, Jeff does well... Well maybe not all the way up Toot's fanny....but pretty far north. All for one and one for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 No need to fight about this one. Almost everyone does well with this kind of storm. I'm glad it is colder so that Kevin, Jerry, Ginx, Will etc have a chance to go historic this winter. For Bob to me mostly frozen all the way down there is awesome...hell even the Cape gets into some fun! Meanwhile up here in the not too far north we benefit from better ratios via deformation even if qpf is a little lower. HPC btw, hasn't reduced qpf at all right up to Jeff?Dryslot. And even NNE is getting a good snowstorm which they need. Eric does well, Jeff does well... Well maybe not all the way up Toot's fanny....but pretty far north. All for one and one for all! No complaints here Mark. It's all good. whatever falls. I'd like to minimize the amount of rain, if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what are the chances KCON gets more than 1" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For some reason he has pretended that Bedford, NH is Quebec this season. You could say the same about SNE pretending it's NNE, too. It's time to shift winter back where it belongs. toot toot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 north baby, north This. I do agree with what Will said in the other thread... I think a lot of folks on the mix line, may not necessarily go over to all sleet, but snow growth will likely take a big hit with the warm air at H7. It might not be sleeting but snow grains and putrid snow growth will likely occur north of the sleet line for a time. But given model QPF of roughly .1"/hr, you could still be pouring snow grains or needles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No complaints here Mark. It's all good. whatever falls. I'd like to minimize the amount of rain, if possible. Not convinced we see any rain from what I see. Unless you live on the South coast and Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No complaints here Mark. It's all good. whatever falls. I'd like to minimize the amount of rain, if possible. Lol, just looked at your sig....58 inches! geez, thats the same as me. Gotta love it. Did you see srefs? I haven't seen the map yet and don't know where to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You could say the same about SNE pretending it's NNE, too. It's time to shift winter back where it belongs. toot toot this is the year of the SNE winter, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No need to fight about this one. Almost everyone does well with this kind of storm. I'm glad it is colder so that Kevin, Jerry, Scott, Ginx, Will etc have a chance to go historic this winter. For Bob to me mostly frozen all the way down there is awesome...hell even the Cape gets into some fun! Meanwhile up here in the not too far north we benefit from better ratios via deformation even if qpf is a little lower. HPC btw, hasn't reduced qpf at all right up to Jeff?Dryslot. And even NNE is getting a good snowstorm which they need. Eric does well, Jeff does well... Well maybe not all the way up Toot's fanny....but pretty far north. All for one and one for all! Its is looking good Mark, We may not be in the jackpot, But i don't quite have that fetish that others have, I will just take the snow that we get to add to our snowpack to keep sledding season moving along.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Lol, just looked at your sig....58 inches! geez, thats the same as me. Gotta love it. Did you see srefs? I haven't seen the map yet and don't know where to find it. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/model_s.shtml Just started to look at them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what are the chances KCON gets more than 1" QPF? if you believe the Euro, GFS, Nam, SREFs, etc, then I would say they are quite good. The question is ratios. Dendrite/Brian and Scott, think we have a shot at deformation snows which are high ratio. 12+ is looking good at this point....but do we get a shot at 24? That is the question...with deformation someone up this way has a good shot at 2ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let's see if the typical off hour over-correction pattern is valid again. IE, it's colder than the 0z, but not as cold as the 6z. EDIT: Right out of the gate at 6 hours the tail of the s/w the 6z developed is still there on the 12z near the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFs are outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFs are outstanding. Seeing that SLP develop and scoot S of LI is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What are SREFs saying? SREFs are outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bob, Juju master....now I know were gettin buried. All is well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....9/model_s.shtml Just started to look at them now. Significantly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 H850 freezing line seems to remain south of here on the 9z SREFs. What a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What are SREFs saying? Looks like maybe pinging to near PYM and PVD to HFD or so. Can't be sure from these primitive NCEP graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always liked the good ol' ETA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Problem with the SREF's is they quite often represent what the 6z/18z NAM showed....not sure they have much bearing on what we are about to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this is the year of the SNE winter, sorry. A lot of Litchfield County and a sliver of far western Hartford Co. aren't having the winter of their lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm messing with Bob's link. I can see the loop which concentrates the appetizer over sne with light up here... a little dissappointing, but looks robust for sne. But I dont know how to see those overall aqf maps for 12 hour periods and the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 H850 freezing line seems to remain south of here on the 9z SREFs. What a winter. Why's everyone looking at the H85 line? Isn't the warm air push with these things almost always closer to H7 or H75? Folks could be sleeting with H85 temps of 0C to -3C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like maybe pinging to near PYM and PVD to HFD or so. Can't be sure from these primitive NCEP graphics. Gawd do I hate those graphics. You have to friggin' trace the 0c line all the way from UT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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