am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I do think that it's a strong 4, but the eye just doesn't look cleared out enough to meet my subjective cat 5 test. We need recon. Yeah, I'm not qualified enough in satellite intensity estimation to tell you for sure. I wouldn't argue if you said anywhere between 125 and 140 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Basing intensity off gusts isn't all bad, as gusts probably do most of the on land damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Another example of how big ridge steered cyclones aren't as unpredictable and the best kind of cyclones out there. Euro had it at day 10. Same happens with Cape Verde biggies, usually. This will be a cat 4(SS) almost for sure at LF, high-end cat 4 even...if only there were a warm eddy around it's path... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Another example of how big ridge steered cyclones aren't as unpredictable and the best kind of cyclones out there. Euro had it at day 10. Same happens with Cape Verde biggies, usually. This will be a cat 4(SS) almost for sure at LF, high-end cat 4 even...if only there were a warm eddy around it's path... Agreed-- i9t's why we love our Caribbean Cruisers. This is the kind of chase subject you fantasize about-- a predictable, intense long-tracker. The MW shot you posted is gorgeous-- I'm including it here as an attachment for posterity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If it's 6.7 and missing the warmest part of the eye in its calculation, doesn't 6.9-7.0 seem plausible? I'm not much of a Dvorak expert so I'm just extrapolating. 1632z hit the warm spot and is T6.9 raw. AMSU was 132 kts at 15z and SATCON gave 125 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1632z hit the warm spot and is T6.9 raw. AMSU was 132 kts at 15z and SATCON gave 125 kts. 125kts sounds about right, IMO. Peak of 135kts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 125kts sounds about right, IMO. Peak of 135kts? Omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 125kts sounds about right, IMO. Peak of 135kts? Sounds good to me. 18 hours left over water, the only thing to stop it is if an ERC comes up out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest IR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 You guys-- as much as possible, would you mind posting images as attachments? That way this thread will be a good archive of cyclone porn later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Really impressive looking on satellite this afternoon (EST). The COC appears to be a bit south of the forecast track, but nothing substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 The core is now within range of the Willis Island radar. By the way, here's a link to the Aussie radar network: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/. I'm sure we'll be watching Cairns and Townsville radars very closely tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Aussie ABC radio just interviewed a senior dude at the BoM, and they're probably going to upgrade Yasi to Cat 5 (AUS) with the 5 am EST update (within the next hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Aussie ABC radio just interviewed a senior dude at the BoM, and they're probably going to upgrade Yasi to Cat 5 (AUS) with the 5 am EST update (within the next hour). A reminder, for those of us that forget (ahem)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 A reminder, for those of us that forget (ahem)... Thanks for posting that-- it's such a good graphic for us Yankees. Latest IR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A reminder, for those of us that forget (ahem)... A very respectable storm regardless of which scale you use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 A very respectable storm regardless of which scale you use. Totally. Their Cat 5 starts at the middle of our Cat 4-- and that is a hell of a cyclone by anyone's standards. Next advice is due out in 10 mins or so-- will be interesting to see if they upgrade it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 And Yasi has now maxed out on the Aussie cyclone scale-- a bona-fide Cat 5. The highest category starts when gusts reach 280 km/hr-- and Yasi's estimated gusts are well over that: 295 km/hr (~160 kt!). The latest advice has some very heavy language-- reminiscent of those dire warnings coming out of NWS New Orleans as Katrina approached: SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PORT DOUGLAS AND TOWNSVILLE. THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS. The new track has shifted a hair S, and it looks like poor Innisfail-- devastated by Larry 2006-- is in the crosshairs now. Note that the forecast brings it ashore at the current intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 The new Technical Bulletin puts the intensity at 924 mb/115 kt (10-min), which is ~130-135 kt (1-min)-- so even on our scale, Yasi is now an upper-end Cat 4. The rather dispassionate remarks: Yasi has developed over the last 12 hours. DT based on eye pattern with white surround with an off white eye average over 3 hours. Forecast to remain at this intensity until landfall in a low shear and favourable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The new Technical Bulletin puts the intensity at 924 mb/115 kt (10-min), which is ~130-135 kt (1-min)-- so even on our scale, Yasi is now an upper-end Cat 4. ADT Final T at 1832z is 6.6 (127 kts, 1-min), with an adjusted and raw of 7.0 (140 kts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's not the most symmetric high-end Cat 4 I've ever seen-- the cloud pattern still looks a bit pinched to the SW-- but it's obviously an extremely severe hurricane: the eye has cleared out and is now encircled by the dark-greys: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sexy radar loop from Willis Island, which will probably be in the eye: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar.jsp?lt=radar&lc=041 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sexy radar loop from Willis Island, which will probably be in the eye: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar.jsp?lt=radar&lc=041 complete overwash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 complete overwash? It's hard to imagine anything but. Hopefully it stays up for a while, so we can get some wind and pressure readings from that station! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's hard to imagine anything but. Hopefully it stays up for a while, so we can get some wind and pressure readings from that station! reminds me of wake island during ioke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 reminds me of wake island during ioke Yep-- or Cape Wessel during your lover's passage (Monica, I mean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You guys-- as much as possible, would you mind posting images as attachments? That way this thread will be a good archive of cyclone porn later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks, Ed. As hawt as the cyclone looks, it's never been totally symmetric-- the SW quad has always seemed a bit "pinched"-- and I'm wondering if that imperfection will become more pronounced as the cyclone nears the coast and Queensland's mountainous terrain messes with the inflow-- like we saw as Karl came ashore in MX last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi Well I woke up this morning and it's now a Cat 5....this is scary stuff and although people in Qld get complacent about cyclones this one has everyone worried. I can't believe they are telling people in Mt Isa to be prepared for cyclonic winds. If you check out a map of Qld that is just freaky.....it's way west of the coast and no one out they will probably believe it.....surely it can't get that bad out there?? They are telling us that it is a lot stronger than Larry so that's a bit scary....We have been sitting here this morning and it is starting off to be a beautiful day.....imagine years ago before people like you guys and before all of this technology...this storm would have just hit people from no where.....now that would have been scary... Sometimes I read this link and think you guys are talking a different language (thanks for making it all simple for me Josh)....if people didn't love this stuff like all of you (and of course the BoM etc) where the heck would we all be?? At least we have warning about this monster... Thanks Mardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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