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Cyclone Yasi


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I do think that it's a strong 4, but the eye just doesn't look cleared out enough to meet my subjective cat 5 test.

We need recon.

Yeah, I'm not qualified enough in satellite intensity estimation to tell you for sure. I wouldn't argue if you said anywhere between 125 and 140 kts.

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Another example of how big ridge steered cyclones aren't as unpredictable and the best kind of cyclones out there. Euro had it at day 10. Same happens with Cape Verde biggies, usually. This will be a cat 4(SS) almost for sure at LF, high-end cat 4 even...if only there were a warm eddy around it's path...

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Another example of how big ridge steered cyclones aren't as unpredictable and the best kind of cyclones out there. Euro had it at day 10. Same happens with Cape Verde biggies, usually. This will be a cat 4(SS) almost for sure at LF, high-end cat 4 even...if only there were a warm eddy around it's path...

Agreed-- i9t's why we love our Caribbean Cruisers. This is the kind of chase subject you fantasize about-- a predictable, intense long-tracker.

The MW shot you posted is gorgeous-- I'm including it here as an attachment for posterity:

post-19-0-24610800-1296581579.jpg

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And Yasi has now maxed out on the Aussie cyclone scale-- a bona-fide Cat 5.

The highest category starts when gusts reach 280 km/hr-- and Yasi's estimated gusts are well over that: 295 km/hr (~160 kt!).

The latest advice has some very heavy language-- reminiscent of those dire warnings coming out of NWS New Orleans as Katrina approached:

SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PORT DOUGLAS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING RECENT GENERATIONS.

The new track has shifted a hair S, and it looks like poor Innisfail-- devastated by Larry 2006-- is in the crosshairs now. Note that the forecast brings it ashore at the current intensity:

post-19-0-23025900-1296587059.gif

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The new Technical Bulletin puts the intensity at 924 mb/115 kt (10-min), which is ~130-135 kt (1-min)-- so even on our scale, Yasi is now an upper-end Cat 4.

The rather dispassionate remarks:

Yasi has developed over the last 12 hours. DT based on eye pattern with white surround with an off white eye average over 3 hours.

Forecast to remain at this intensity until landfall in a low shear and favourable environment.

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Thanks, Ed. :)

As hawt as the cyclone looks, it's never been totally symmetric-- the SW quad has always seemed a bit "pinched"-- and I'm wondering if that imperfection will become more pronounced as the cyclone nears the coast and Queensland's mountainous terrain messes with the inflow-- like we saw as Karl came ashore in MX last year.

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Hi

Well I woke up this morning and it's now a Cat 5....this is scary stuff and although people in Qld get complacent about cyclones this one has everyone worried. I can't believe they are telling people in Mt Isa to be prepared for cyclonic winds. If you check out a map of Qld that is just freaky.....it's way west of the coast and no one out they will probably believe it.....surely it can't get that bad out there??

They are telling us that it is a lot stronger than Larry so that's a bit scary....We have been sitting here this morning and it is starting off to be a beautiful day.....imagine years ago before people like you guys and before all of this technology...this storm would have just hit people from no where.....now that would have been scary...

Sometimes I read this link and think you guys are talking a different language (thanks for making it all simple for me Josh)....if people didn't love this stuff like all of you (and of course the BoM etc) where the heck would we all be?? At least we have warning about this monster...

Thanks

Mardi

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