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Cyclone Yasi


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Satellite pictures showed Yasi getting better organized as it approached the coast.

Also, keep in mind that buildings in QLD are built fairly well... generally not like pre-Andrew south Florida.

Intensity estimates from the BoM remained flat in the final hours, however-- and I didn't notice any appreciable changes in the radar presentation as the core came withing radar ranged and approached the coast. (And I was really watching it closely. I posted a frame almost every 10 mins in this thread, so you can see for yourself.)

Point taken Re: QLD building codes-- but still.

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So, kush and I were discussing this offline, and he made a good point-- that it's possible that higher winds squeezed in between Mission Beach (the landfall point) and Cardwell (~25 mi S of the track). (See map below.) (Tully proper was probably at an optimal latitude, but as kush pointed out, it's too far inland. Even a few miles from the coast, winds tend to be much weaker than right on the open coast.)

So... If anyone finds any images from Wongaling Beach, South Mission Beach, Dunk Island, Hull Heads, or Tully Heads, please post them!

post-19-0-94728300-1296777248.png

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This just in from an Aussie storm chasers' forum:

They have just released word that Tully heads is probably the worst hit. Crew have only just got in there to survey the damage but say its the worst scenes of devastation out of YASI.

This makes perfect sense, actually. Tully Heads would have been perfectly situated for the max winds. I'd like to see imagery from there.

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I've yanked on half dead low hanging coconut palm fronds with all my weight before and they didn't even hint at breaking off. It's hard to comprehend that green healthy fronds could ever be so cleanly stripped off by just wind. That's insane.

Yeah, totally!

People who've never touched palm fronds don't realize how tough and stiff they are-- they think they're all soft, like the leaves of a fern. So when you see them waving like crazy-- or getting ripped off-- you know that is some seriously harsh wind.

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http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/4617626/Chef-told-to-endure-storm

Mr Berkett, who has worked on the island as a chef for 10 months, said it looked like someone had dropped a nuclear bomb on the place.

"Basically all the trees on this island have been stripped – it's amazing."

Lighter, wooden buildings were strewn across the island, while the concrete buildings they took refugee in survived the force.

Staff – four to a room – put mattresses up against the windows and door and "just held on". "At 11pm [2am NZT] we started feeling the most of it. We got a break about 1am when the eye passed over, but within 20 minutes the second blast came through and just basically wrecked the place."

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I'm definitely in the solid Cat 4 (US) for Yasi. I think a 125kt storm is a good call. A 135 kt storm reaching peak just before landfall would have done some really serious levelling of buildings. I made my observations about w/p relationships to bring up a point that you don't want to get hung up on them. In short, a storm is going to do as it pleases.

Steve

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20 min eye seems a bit short...they must have missed the fat center and gotten more eyewall than others

Yeah, totally. I think with this kind of situation-- when the cyclone is moving kind of fast-- and the winds in the left eyewall are getting that forward-speed augmentation, locations that just miss the eye to the left-- or who only catch a small piece of it, like these people-- get higher winds than locations that are squarely in the path of the center of the eye. So the fact that the lull was short says to me that they were fairly optimally placed.

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I'm definitely in the solid Cat 4 (US) for Yasi. I think a 125kt storm is a good call. A 135 kt storm reaching peak just before landfall would have done some really serious levelling of buildings. I made my observations about w/p relationships to bring up a point that you don't want to get hung up on them. In short, a storm is going to do as it pleases.

Steve

OK, gotcha. Makes sense. And, yeah, I try not to get too hung up on those P/W charts-- I remind myself all the time that they're just rough guides-- a starting point, really.

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Today the Brisbane Courier Mail has reported:

“The Dunk Island Resort, off Mission Beach, was also smashed beyond recognition. The function hall was gutted, an "infinity" pool filled with sand and the health centre was unroofed. Almost all of the beachfront apartments had their walls torn off and were left empty shells by the ferocious winds. Palm trees, normally a hardy species capable of withstanding heavy storms, were stripped bare of fronds.”

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/303283#ixzz1CwwdBpTT

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Does BOM do post season storm reports/best tracks like NHC?

All cyclones get at least a short, simple report here: http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/

Bigger, more important cyclones-- like, ones that have a significant impact on Australia-- will sometimes get a special, more detailed report in PDF format, and that will come later on. I'm pretty sure they'll do something special like that for Yasi, given the great impact inflicted on Queensland.

Like the NHC, I think the BoM does some kind of post-season "cleanup" of the data and then enter it into their "best-track" database-- but I'm not sure of the exact timing of that.

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yes

BOM does do reports post cyclone

Qld BOM have jumped the gun a few times of late and final analysis has revealed it wasn't a cyclone or their crossing category is up/down graded

Hey, Sean! The NHC does the same thing: in seasonal postanalysis, they'll sometimes change their verdict Re: the intensity of a given system. It's all part of the normal process, as it's not always possible to do complete analysis of all factors in real time.

Josh will know where they are lol ;)

Yep-- see above. :)

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Looking at some of the damage and accounts in the places south of Mission Beach, I would like to change my assessment to 120-135kt.

Yeah, my estimate came up a tad yesterday as well-- not so much from the Mission Beach stuff, but the images and accounts from Dunk Island, which really got raked (see above).

Bottom line-- I'm cool with the blended BoM/JTWC value of 130 kt (1-min), which I believe has been reasonably well-corroborated by the imagery and firsthand accounts.

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OK, here are some great shots from Dunk Island. (kush found 'em.)

These are the most impressive pics I've seen yet. The landscape has that totally burnt, wintry look that you only see after really severe cyclones. This is the best evidence yet of a solid Cat-4 event, in my opinion:

post-19-0-65831700-1296779378.jpg

post-19-0-31298200-1296779389.jpg

post-19-0-75918700-1296780633.jpg post-19-0-13363000-1296780642.jpg

These pics remind me of when Felix came ashore in 2007. 929 mb, one eyewall, some evidence of strengthening before landfall-- I say upper end Cat 4. Unless, however, there is some sort of magic observation from radar or a station, we wont' have a really good idea :(

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