HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nice nice nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm going to disagree with just about everyone the last two pages of this thread. SSD has Yasi at 6.5, JTWC has Yasi at 135 kts, BOM has it at 110 kts (10-min) and SATCON overnight was 130-135 kts. I'm not sure how much more evidence you guys want that this is a solid S-S Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm going to disagree with just about everyone the last two pages of this thread. SSD has Yasi at 6.5, JTWC has Yasi at 135 kts, BOM has it at 110 kts (10-min) and SATCON overnight was 130-135 kts. I'm not sure how much more evidence you guys want that this is a solid S-S Cat 4. Well, to my defense, I did say Cat 4 (115 kt). I think you can see what we're saying-- it is not the most beautiful Cat 4 ever. But, hey, we can't argue with scientific methodology here-- it trumps our gut feelings, for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well, to my defense, I did say Cat 4 (115 kt). I think you can see what we're saying-- it is not the most beautiful Cat 4 ever. But, hey, we can't argue with scientific methodology here-- it trumps our gut feelings, for sure! It may not be the prettiest ever, but I don't think a reasonable argument can be made that this is less than 125 kts, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Latest Cairns radar-- coming closer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Going to a meeting-- ugh! One more radar shot. So nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The two closest stations to Innisfail are Cairns and Townsville, so we won't get any obs in the core. Cairns is currently 18G29KT and Townsville is 38G54KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 A chaser from NAC is streaming here: Apparently he is in the Ingham area http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test222223435432e#utm_campaigne=synclickback&source=http://www.severeweatherchasers.com/index.html&medium=6484768 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 The two closest stations to Innisfail are Cairns and Townsville, so we won't get any obs in the core. Cairns is currently 18G29KT and Townsville is 38G54KT. Actually, South Johnstone will be in the core, I believe: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=32037&list=ob The location is 17.6053°S 145.9972°E, just S of Innisfail-- will be in the N eyewall for sure, maybe in the eye. Latest from this station: 22 kt G 43, 981 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 A chaser from NAC is streaming here: Apparently he is in the Ingham area http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test222223435432e#utm_campaigne=synclickback&source=http://www.severeweatherchasers.com/index.html&medium=6484768 Stephen, what do you think of that location. It looks to me like they'll most certainly miss the eyewall, unless the cyclone takes a sharp dip S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Actually, South Johnstone will be in the core, I believe: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=32037&list=ob The location is 17.6053°S 145.9972°E, just S of Innisfail-- will be in the N eyewall for sure, maybe in the eye. Latest from this station: 22 kt G 43, 981 mb. Thanks. RAP didn't have that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Some recent images. Very nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 These Aussie chasers are in Ingham, about 60 miles south of the expected landfall location. There weather station was just damaged, so no more wind data unfortunately. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test222223435432e#utm_campaigne=synclickback&source=http://www.severeweatherchasers.com/index.html&medium=6484768 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Stephen, what do you think of that location. It looks to me like they'll most certainly miss the eyewall, unless the cyclone takes a sharp dip S. Does seem to far south but at this stage, with a slight wobble to the SW, south is better. From what I can gather they picked a target area and planned around safety options such as storm surge, shelter etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 These Aussie chasers are in Ingham, about 60 miles south of the expected landfall location. There weather station was just damaged, so no more wind data unfortunately. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test222223435432e#utm_campaigne=synclickback&source=http://www.severeweatherchasers.com/index.html&medium=6484768 Yeah, I just mentioned them, above. I think they're too far S to get in the core, unless the cyclone takes a big S wobble. Does seem to far south but at this stage, with a slight wobble to the SW, south is better. From what I can gather they picked a target area and planned around safety options such as storm surge, shelter etc. Yeah, I can't fault them for putting safety first. And nighttime chases in areas prone to flooding can be very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm assuming the wavenumber-4 pattern in the eyewall is due to a mesovortex structure. That's where the strongest winds and most damage will be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm assuming the wavenumber-4 pattern in the eyewall is due to a mesovortex structure. That's where the strongest winds and most damage will be found. Interesting-- can you please elaborate on that? It's a very nice eyewall. Conditions in it will be really, really heavy, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Winds reallying picking up here now - gusting fairly well. Apparently we won't get too much until tomorrow morning. People in Port Hinchinbrook (just out side of Cardwell) already in big touble. 89,000 people already without power.... Some websites are measuring waves of 18mts however we have been told this is not accurate and should be disregarded. It is hard because I have no idea what is going on outside as we can't see a thing. Really worried about people further south if they get the winds speeds they are predicting. Some homes in Innisfail are still not fully repaired from Larry. We are in a fairly open area so maybe it seems worse because we don't have other houses etc to protect us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Interesting-- can you please elaborate on that? It's a very nice eyewall. Conditions in it will be really, really heavy, I'm sure. On the radar image I posted, see how there are three areas of higher dBZ evenly spaced (to the NNW, WSW, and SSE)? I'm assuming that there is probably one in the ENE, too, but is being attenuated. That's what I mean by wavenumber-4 (4 high dBZ areas, 4 low dBZ areas evenly spaced). The even spacing suggests that they're not transient features, but instead an organized convective structure within the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Here's a handy map showing the coast and the last 4 advice positions. The cyclone seems to be aiming for Wongaling Beach and Tully. Innisfail will be in the N eyewall, on the weaker side: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Landfall very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 On the radar image I posted, see how there are three areas of higher dBZ evenly spaced (to the NNW, WSW, and SSE)? I'm assuming that there is probably one in the ENE, too, but is being attenuated. That's what I mean by wavenumber-4 (4 high dBZ areas, 4 low dBZ areas evenly spaced). The even spacing suggests that they're not transient features, but instead an organized convective structure within the eyewall. Really interesting. I thought it was just a coincidence that it seemed to be divided into quads. I totally see it, now that you point it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Really interesting. I thought it was just a coincidence that it seemed to be divided into quads. I totally see it, now that you point it out! The other hint is the way the eyewall deformation is wobbling as the mesovortices rotate around the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Latest radar shots. The eyewall is just about to come ashore. Man, what I'd give to be in one of those little towns S of Innisfail right now. They're probably getting raked: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Winds reallying picking up here now - gusting fairly well. Apparently we won't get too much until tomorrow morning. People in Port Hinchinbrook (just out side of Cardwell) already in big touble. 89,000 people already without power.... Some websites are measuring waves of 18mts however we have been told this is not accurate and should be disregarded. It is hard because I have no idea what is going on outside as we can't see a thing. Really worried about people further south if they get the winds speeds they are predicting. Some homes in Innisfail are still not fully repaired from Larry. We are in a fairly open area so maybe it seems worse because we don't have other houses etc to protect us?? Yeah, if there is nothing around your house and it's all exposed like that, it's going to take more of a beating from the wind. The good news for you is that the cyclone's wobbled a bit S, and I think the inner core (the eyewall-- the ring of max winds) will miss you and Innisfail a tad to the S. You'll get some very heavy conditions and you might have some light damage, but you won't see the worst of it. Just stay away from the windows and you'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 The inner core is just about onshore. The cyclone's structure is holding up nicely. Note that the eye remains totally cleared out-- should be a good, solid calm for people in its path: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 South Johnstone hasn't updated in a long while. I think we lost that one. Bummer-- I was looking forward to those data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 And it looks like some of the towns on the immediate coast are just getting into the eye now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 The new BoM advice puts the center just offshore, just E of Wongaling Beach. It will make landfall in the next hour. Here's the track up to now. I think Cardwell (pop. 1,250)-- in the inner core, just left of the track-- will be completely devastated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 From the BoM: THE LARGE DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI IS STARTING TO CROSS THE COAST BETWEEN INNISFAIL AND CARDWELL, WITH A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE AND BATTERING WAVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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