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Cyclone Yasi


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I'm going to disagree with just about everyone the last two pages of this thread. SSD has Yasi at 6.5, JTWC has Yasi at 135 kts, BOM has it at 110 kts (10-min) and SATCON overnight was 130-135 kts. I'm not sure how much more evidence you guys want that this is a solid S-S Cat 4.

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I'm going to disagree with just about everyone the last two pages of this thread. SSD has Yasi at 6.5, JTWC has Yasi at 135 kts, BOM has it at 110 kts (10-min) and SATCON overnight was 130-135 kts. I'm not sure how much more evidence you guys want that this is a solid S-S Cat 4.

Well, to my defense, I did say Cat 4 (115 kt). :D

I think you can see what we're saying-- it is not the most beautiful Cat 4 ever. But, hey, we can't argue with scientific methodology here-- it trumps our gut feelings, for sure!

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Well, to my defense, I did say Cat 4 (115 kt). :D

I think you can see what we're saying-- it is not the most beautiful Cat 4 ever. But, hey, we can't argue with scientific methodology here-- it trumps our gut feelings, for sure!

It may not be the prettiest ever, but I don't think a reasonable argument can be made that this is less than 125 kts, either.

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The two closest stations to Innisfail are Cairns and Townsville, so we won't get any obs in the core. Cairns is currently 18G29KT and Townsville is 38G54KT.

Actually, South Johnstone will be in the core, I believe:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=32037&list=ob

The location is 17.6053°S 145.9972°E, just S of Innisfail-- will be in the N eyewall for sure, maybe in the eye.

Latest from this station: 22 kt G 43, 981 mb.

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Stephen, what do you think of that location. It looks to me like they'll most certainly miss the eyewall, unless the cyclone takes a sharp dip S.

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Stephen, what do you think of that location. It looks to me like they'll most certainly miss the eyewall, unless the cyclone takes a sharp dip S.

Does seem to far south but at this stage, with a slight wobble to the SW, south is better. From what I can gather they picked a target area and planned around safety options such as storm surge, shelter etc.

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These Aussie chasers are in Ingham, about 60 miles south of the expected landfall location. There weather station was just damaged, so no more wind data unfortunately.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test222223435432e#utm_campaigne=synclickback&source=http://www.severeweatherchasers.com/index.html&medium=6484768

Yeah, I just mentioned them, above. I think they're too far S to get in the core, unless the cyclone takes a big S wobble.

Does seem to far south but at this stage, with a slight wobble to the SW, south is better. From what I can gather they picked a target area and planned around safety options such as storm surge, shelter etc.

Yeah, I can't fault them for putting safety first. And nighttime chases in areas prone to flooding can be very difficult.

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Winds reallying picking up here now - gusting fairly well. Apparently we won't get too much until tomorrow morning. People in Port Hinchinbrook (just out side of Cardwell) already in big touble. 89,000 people already without power....

Some websites are measuring waves of 18mts however we have been told this is not accurate and should be disregarded.

It is hard because I have no idea what is going on outside as we can't see a thing. Really worried about people further south if they get the winds speeds they are predicting. Some homes in Innisfail are still not fully repaired from Larry.

We are in a fairly open area so maybe it seems worse because we don't have other houses etc to protect us??

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Interesting-- can you please elaborate on that?

It's a very nice eyewall. Conditions in it will be really, really heavy, I'm sure.

On the radar image I posted, see how there are three areas of higher dBZ evenly spaced (to the NNW, WSW, and SSE)? I'm assuming that there is probably one in the ENE, too, but is being attenuated. That's what I mean by wavenumber-4 (4 high dBZ areas, 4 low dBZ areas evenly spaced). The even spacing suggests that they're not transient features, but instead an organized convective structure within the eyewall.

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On the radar image I posted, see how there are three areas of higher dBZ evenly spaced (to the NNW, WSW, and SSE)? I'm assuming that there is probably one in the ENE, too, but is being attenuated. That's what I mean by wavenumber-4 (4 high dBZ areas, 4 low dBZ areas evenly spaced). The even spacing suggests that they're not transient features, but instead an organized convective structure within the eyewall.

Really interesting. I thought it was just a coincidence that it seemed to be divided into quads. I totally see it, now that you point it out!

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Winds reallying picking up here now - gusting fairly well. Apparently we won't get too much until tomorrow morning. People in Port Hinchinbrook (just out side of Cardwell) already in big touble. 89,000 people already without power....

Some websites are measuring waves of 18mts however we have been told this is not accurate and should be disregarded.

It is hard because I have no idea what is going on outside as we can't see a thing. Really worried about people further south if they get the winds speeds they are predicting. Some homes in Innisfail are still not fully repaired from Larry.

We are in a fairly open area so maybe it seems worse because we don't have other houses etc to protect us??

Yeah, if there is nothing around your house and it's all exposed like that, it's going to take more of a beating from the wind.

The good news for you is that the cyclone's wobbled a bit S, and I think the inner core (the eyewall-- the ring of max winds) will miss you and Innisfail a tad to the S. You'll get some very heavy conditions and you might have some light damage, but you won't see the worst of it. Just stay away from the windows and you'll be fine.

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