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Cyclone Yasi


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F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 22NM WMG EYE LG SURR W/BF

YIELDS A 6.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO PT.

REMARKS:

020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 149.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST

OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TC TRACKED OVER WILLIS ISLAND AT AROUND

2200Z WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS LOGGED IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS

GUSTING TO OVER 100 KNOTS. AN IMPRESSIVE EYEWALL HAD BEEN VISIBLE ON

THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR THAT HAS SINCE BECOME INOPERABLE. THE

CYCLONE WILL MOVE WITHIN RANGE OF THE CAIRNS RADAR IN THE NEXT FEW

HOURS AND WILL PASS BETWEEN HOLMES REEF AND FLINDERS REEF BEFORE

MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAIRNS. THE TC SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT

INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS (OR POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN SOME) BEFORE

MAKING LANDFALL AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE.

DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 115 TO 127

KNOTS. YASI WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR OF AUSTRALIA AFTER

COMING ASHORE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 38 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.

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It's going to be close enough... and the TC large enough... for the northernmost of those areas to be affected by outer rain bands.

Regardless, for areas further north in QLD to be hit by ~1 m of rain is not helping the state's situation.

Sorry to reply to this post several pages late. These TC's always recurve after going inland, the prevailing polar frontal systems and the Australian high push them back out offshore. All the river basins previously affected by flooding will suffer a large amount of rainfall as the remains of this storm heads back out into the Tasman sea.

It's going to be a big, nasty rain event over already soaked catchments. I suspect this rain event, after the storm becomes a depression, will be as bad as the storm impacting the coast.

I should also add that storm surge anywhere along this coast is going to be bad. Most of the towns and cities are built on very low, flat coastal plains with big ranges behind them. When you combine it with a coastline that is protected from any significant ocean swells by the Barrier reef, it means lots and lots of erosion and innundation. The worst this coast typically sees is a 3ft wind chop.

Regards, Andrew.

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The cyclone's holding together nicely and is set to really pound the coast in the next few hours. Latest BoM intensity is 930 mb/110 kt (10-min); latest JTWC is 125 kt (1-min), so there's excellent agreement between the agencies.

Latest BoM fixes-- which are now coming out hourly-- as well as radar loops suggest a bit of a W wobble the last few hours, which increases the risk to Cairns and Innisfail. Innisfail still looks like a good bet for landfall within the next several hours:

post-19-0-29399900-1296634836.gif

post-19-0-28797700-1296634787.gif

post-19-0-53083000-1296634771.jpg

post-19-0-54904700-1296634761.jpg

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The eye is very well developed still, this cyclone is not weakening one bit. A very impressive storm, can you imagine if SST's had been more favourable close to the coast? I think it could've gone US Cat 5 easily, it's just hard to fault the storm's presentation at this time, nearly perfect.

Not to fault it, but I can imagine it looking better-- for example, greater symmetry, and with those dark greys completely encircling the center like a donut. These are the things we look for-- at least in Atlantic hurricanes.

That having been said, it's clearly a very powerful cyclone and it's a whole lot better-looking than anything I've chased the last couple of years! I would be delighted to get something like this to chase in our basin this year.

P.S. I agree with you-- the SSTs were the only barrier here, and Lord knows what would have happened if they'd been more optimal.

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Wind finally starting to pick up.....have been waiting all day for something to happen....at one stage we thought it was going to go down Cardwell way but the latest BoM advice has it closer to Innisfail. We have power still which is good, apparently a lot of people lost theirs hours ago.

We still have a way to go as she is not expected to cross until approx 11pm - it's only approx 7pm here now.

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Not to fault it, but I can imagine it looking better-- for example, greater symmetry, and with those dark greys completely encircling the center like a donut. These are the things we look for-- at least in Atlantic hurricanes.

That having been said, it's clearly a very powerful cyclone and it's a whole lot better-looking than anything I've chased the last couple of years! I would be delighted to get something like this to chase in our basin this year.

P.S. I agree with you-- the SSTs were the only barrier here, and Lord knows what would have happened if they'd been more optimal.

Agree, just looking at the infrared satellite, I would estimate 100 kt., maybe 105 kt. winds.

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Wind finally starting to pick up.....have been waiting all day for something to happen....at one stage we thought it was going to go down Cardwell way but the latest BoM advice has it closer to Innisfail. We have power still which is good, apparently a lot of people lost theirs hours ago.

We still have a way to go as she is not expected to cross until approx 11pm - it's only approx 7pm here now.

Hey, Mardi! Thanks for the update. Since the landfall will be near Innisfail, you should be just N of the center and might even get in the eye. Since you will probably be N of the eye, you probably won't get the max winds-- but, don't worry-- you'll get raked plenty hard. Given that you're ~20 mi inland, you probably won't start getting really strong winds until the center is pretty close to the coast.

Stay safe and keep us updated!

Agree, just looking at the infrared satellite, I would estimate 100 kt., maybe 105 kt. winds.

That low? :lol: C'mon-- it looks a little better than that-- no?

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Ballpark 50 miles inland, we could see transformer flashes, then hear the wind approach, then pass by, in wind bands between the rain bands. Back during Ike, which I chased from my house. Power didn't go out, however, until we were solidly inside the main rain.

Once the computer and TV were down from lack of power, it was off to bed, but those things are loud, whether it was small pebbles or rain, sounded like rocks hitting the house.

Good luck.

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South Johnstone (at 17.6053°S 145.9972°E) is just S of Innisfail and directly in the path of the center-- so it will be interesting to see the obs as the center draws closer:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=32037&list=ob

Currently 15 kt G 30, 990.5 mb. (They've gusted as high as 41 kt in the last couple of hrs.)

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Man, that last sat pic you posted looks like a borderline cat 4 equivalent. Yikes.

Agreed-- I would say 115 kt just looking at it, without knowing anything else.

Thanks, interesting stuff. 40 miles across, whoa!

You're welcome. :)

Yeah, Wilma had a large eye when it hit FL. And even though the cyclone raced through at breakneck speed, the lull still lasted almost two hours just because the eye was so wide! We had no radar or communications at the time, and the calm lasted so long we thought perhaps the cyclone had passed. :lol: Little did we know that the much stronger backside was coming. :D

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Latest radar. The core has a very nice presentation.

There are some chasers from my other forum down in Ingham. My gut feeling is that they're way too far S to get the really intense action-- but I can't fault them, either. It's nighttime, it's a very intense storm, and the region is prone to flash flooding. I do hope there's someone closer to the center, though, so we can get some Ground Zero obs.

Winds at S Johnstone gusting to 40 kt, pressure down to 988.3 mb.

post-19-0-90607400-1296641328.gif

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Hey, Mardi! Thanks for the update. Since the landfall will be near Innisfail, you should be just N of the center and might even get in the eye. Since you will probably be N of the eye, you probably won't get the max winds-- but, don't worry-- you'll get raked plenty hard. Given that you're ~20 mi inland, you probably won't start getting really strong winds until the center is pretty close to the coast.

Stay safe and keep us updated!

That low? :lol: C'mon-- it looks a little better than that-- no?

Yeah! They are saying we will get a Cat 3 with wind gusts up to 290kms p/h but last time I checked that was a lot higher than a Cat 3.....oh well I don't know the difference as it's my first cyclone....lol

I am a lot more excited now than I was this morning.....this morning was not looking good for here but now things look a lot better....

NO WAIT.....just had an emergency warning come over the TV but I missed it.....something about an alert for the Atherton Tablelands....buggar....oh well what can ya do?? Josh I am starting to see why you get excited when you get scared.......but I'm NOT going outside.....I'll be scared and safe inside....lol....I'll leave that freaky stuff to you...

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Yeah! They are saying we will get a Cat 3 with wind gusts up to 290kms p/h but last time I checked that was a lot higher than a Cat 3.....oh well I don't know the difference as it's my first cyclone....lol

I am a lot more excited now than I was this morning.....this morning was not looking good for here but now things look a lot better....

NO WAIT.....just had an emergency warning come over the TV but I missed it.....something about an alert for the Atherton Tablelands....buggar....oh well what can ya do?? Josh I am starting to see why you get excited when you get scared.......but I'm NOT going outside.....I'll be scared and safe inside....lol....I'll leave that freaky stuff to you...

:D

Even chasers shouldn't go outside in the core of a very strong cyclone-- it's just dumb-- so don't feel bad. When the wind starts to pick up, just stay on the downwind side of the house, away from windows, and you'll be fine.

P.S. Yes, there's a very fine line between pleasure and fear. ;)

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