Cheeznado Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 .90" so far. What happened to my 3 - 4 inch totals? We had a 100% chance of heavy rain last night and I don't think I picked up more than a trace. Happy Birthday Robert. Thanks for all of the knowledgeable posts. Yeah, last night and today are a big disappointment- classic "split screw" here where the heavy rain splits south and north of us. Luckily I had 1.61" yesterday and .18 Sunday- only ,1 today so far. Not the 3 plus I was expecting but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yep happy birthday Robert! Boy this rain is hating Charlotte. It's creating a hole right around the CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 59 here under the Peach. Can't say how much rain we've had (should probably empty the gauge) a good guess would be around .25. The breeze has kicked up quite a bit since that last shower. I guess we'll wait and see if any storms get cranking later today. Radar looks pretty benign for a few hours...just enough time to run some afternoon errands. Peach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I only had 0.20 last night when I went to bed, and the radar didn't look promising, but we just had a SVR warning, and now I'm up to 1.62 inches. Looks like it is coming to an end, but that is way more than I was expecting based on the disappointing total from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Sitting on .11 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 I really appreciate all the nice birthday wishes, wasn't expecting that. I was expecting some rain however So far, around .13", which after seeing yesterday's runs, I began to doubt much here. I knew I'd be on the eastern edge of the first round, but expected a steady pouring right now, so far I got grazed to the east...sigh. Another potential good rain here down the tubes. But there's still the actual front to come through this evening, so maybe something can get going in N. Ga before it arrives, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that really develop to my east, with severe in the piedmont to coast. edit: tried to thank everyone using quote blocks, but wouldn't let me. But thanks again to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yep happy birthday Robert! Boy this rain is hating Charlotte. It's creating a hole right around the CLT area. that hole was over Cleveland County this morning, coming in from SC it just kept fizzling out right before hitting us. Was light anyway , but man I'm disgusted at this event here. Haven't really seen much rain here since the thunderstorms in August, all the other good events everyone literally just west and just east of me. But enough complaining. I haven't seen much in the way of long range, hopefully the Greenland block materializes so late Nov/early Dec. can get more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 that hole was over Cleveland County this morning, coming in from SC it just kept fizzling out right before hitting us. Was light anyway , but man I'm disgusted at this event here. Haven't really seen much rain here since the thunderstorms in August, all the other good events everyone literally just west and just east of me. But enough complaining. I haven't seen much in the way of long range, hopefully the Greenland block materializes so late Nov/early Dec. can get more interesting. have to say i am irritated as well - its been very dry lately, and seeing the blobs to the n and s on radar with us in the dry slot is depressing. i was really hoping for some good rains, and even cutting the amounts in half from the models would have been a great rainfall. at this point its pretty pathetic (at least parts of atl appear to have had good rain. sadly, IIRC you mentioned that the heavy stuff could shut off over atl and nw ga. next time you should say the heavier amounts will be over ne ga and the western carolinas lol) i have been watching and waiting to see development or redevelopment of the rain, but at this point it doesnt appear to be likely. at least its drizzling and cool and feels fall like out side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yeah, last night and today are a big disappointment- classic "split screw" here where the heavy rain splits south and north of us. Luckily I had 1.61" yesterday and .18 Sunday- only ,1 today so far. Not the 3 plus I was expecting but I'll take it. I kind of had a gut feeling we would miss out. I'll take it too. I think I'm around 46" for the year so I shouldn't complain too much and the ground was plenty wet before this rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Bit windy ouside. Rain coming down and blowing sideways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Decent shower just ending, like many have stated, a BIG disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 well one good sign - at least we are getting the infamous light rain with nothing on radar lol. now we need this to happen with temps under 31 Bit windy ouside. Rain coming down and blowing sideways. send it one county over please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I agree about this. The rain acts as if it only wants to hit areas by going around certain counties. I think it did this the last time we had rain move into parts of the SE where areas like mine would have had significant rainfall but all the storminess either went around them or fizzled just before it hit, almost as if there was a some sort of barrier over those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 have to say i am irritated as well - its been very dry lately, and seeing the blobs to the n and s on radar with us in the dry slot is depressing. i was really hoping for some good rains, and even cutting the amounts in half from the models would have been a great rainfall. at this point its pretty pathetic (at least parts of atl appear to have had good rain. sadly, IIRC you mentioned that the heavy stuff could shut off over atl and nw ga. next time you should say the heavier amounts will be over ne ga and the western carolinas lol) i have been watching and waiting to see development or redevelopment of the rain, but at this point it doesnt appear to be likely. at least its drizzling and cool and feels fall like out side. we still may catch the tail end development today , before a long spell of very nice weather returns. I still think the longer range looks very interesting and could offer something interesting to follow. I' don't mean the 384 GFS, although in a strong Nina I'll bet we get an approaching cold cutoff like that this season, just not verbatim on this run. Next week, there should be a good overrunning of the strong baroclinic zone to our west and north, and when that goes by, we begin to step down colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Just send it down here! The 384 day looked promising yesterday but today it's all but fizzled out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Just send it down here! The 384 day looked promising yesterday but today it's all but fizzled out today. I think it looks great!! It shows two possible winter events for parts of the SE (day 10-16). But I also know that the next run will show something totally different. I think the main question is the pattern really going to change that could provide the type of setup it is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 There is a new line starting to form back in Mississippi but have no idea if it will make it here. My guess is no but it's starting to look like it just might. You can try this radar view of the deep south. I set it on "Fast" and 50% opacity. Please be patient, it loads 25 different radar sites! http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_deep_south_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 WeatherNC if anything I would think the greatest chance of TORs would be near the west end of the slight risk area. That will be where higher shear is (closer to the low) and the wedge boundary. I will be looking around the I-95 corridor based on that should there be enough instability to get anything going. Had a few breaks in the clouds this morning and got some heating, a little more than first thought. Made it up to 73, but with a dp of 55 that gives you an idea about the lack of instability. Spent the majority of the morning clearing brush and seeding rye-grass banking on the fact it would RN today. Thankfully, just had a good 5 min downpour and that looks about it for round 1. I am not impressed with this set-up, despite the UL support the instab sucks and the best dynamics look to be coming through tonight, which is another strike given loss of heating. I checked the RAH summary for the Kenly Tornado a couple years back (Nov 15th) and 850's were a good 5C warmer for that event and ML Capes were approaching 1500, so not even a close analog even though slp and 850 tracks are similar. SPC seems to think the best chance will come tonight as the actual cold front sweeps through and I would have to agree as right know we are lacking the forcing for organized development. TONIGHT...A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE ERN AL COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK /I.E MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500-700 J PER KG/...THE INTENSE WIND FIELD AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THREAT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. Hopefully this is the final dud in what has not been the 2010 svr weather season here. 3 svr warnings and no tornado warnings this year, that is sad and no where near where we usually are. Setting my sights on late month, 27th-30th, with the anticipation of another good winter here in ENC. Happy Birthday Robert, sorry about RN-fail out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 There is a new line starting to form back in Mississippi but have no idea if it will make it here. My guess is no but it's starting to look like it just might. You can try this radar view of the deep south. I set it on "Fast" and 50% opacity. Please be patient, it loads 25 different radar sites! http://www.daculawea...outh_master.php This is my favorite radar, from the AJC. My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Had a few breaks in the clouds this morning and got some heating, a little more than first thought. Made it up to 73, but with a dp of 55 that gives you an idea about the lack of instability. Spent the majority of the morning clearing brush and seeding rye-grass banking on the fact it would RN today. Thankfully, just had a good 5 min downpour and that looks about it for round 1. I am not impressed with this set-up, despite the UL support the instab sucks and the best dynamics look to be coming through tonight, which is another strike given loss of heating. I checked the RAH summary for the Kenly Tornado a couple years back (Nov 15th) and 850's were a good 5C warmer for that event and ML Capes were approaching 1500, so not even a close analog even though slp and 850 tracks are similar. SPC seems to think the best chance will come tonight as the actual cold front sweeps through and I would have to agree as right know we are lacking the forcing for organized development. Hopefully this is the final dud in what has not been the 2010 svr weather season here. 3 svr warnings and no tornado warnings this year, that is sad and no where near where we usually are. Setting my sights on late month, 27th-30th, with the anticipation of another good winter here in ENC. Yeah overall I am seeing the same and it looks like a chase day fail for sure. You are right in saying after nightfall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Another line trying to develop in NW GA as well. The MS one will likely make it this far but by then most of the shear has checked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 This is my favorite radar, from the AJC. My link Their mobile phone radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Their mobile phone radar? yes, it updates, pretty accurate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 48 degrees with wind-driven mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Sun is out here now but the winds are still howling, trees will be naked after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 we still may catch the tail end development today , before a long spell of very nice weather returns. I still think the longer range looks very interesting and could offer something interesting to follow. I' don't mean the 384 GFS, although in a strong Nina I'll bet we get an approaching cold cutoff like that this season, just not verbatim on this run. Next week, there should be a good overrunning of the strong baroclinic zone to our west and north, and when that goes by, we begin to step down colder and colder. 12z ens mean agrees with you, nice weather for the next 10 days or so before we start stepping down the temps... After 240 minus 5-10C negative 850 temp anomalies are along the EC and only slightly modify prior to the end of the run. May need a jacket for Black Friday shopping. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Really blowing in Atlanta, sunny and 65. Clouds are flying from the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Looks like the warm sector is punching into Eastern NC now and I am right on the higher side of the dp gradient along the in-situ wedge boundary. We are getting some showers as a result but unfortunately not enough instability to fire off anything worthwile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 68 windy.. heating up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yeah, that frontal boundary next week will likely slow to a crawl with some waves of precip along it from time to time. Might see some of the colder air 'wedge' in here from the north prior to the actual real cold shot arriving. Makings of a chilly, damp Thanksgiving for some in the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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