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November 2010


FoothillsNC

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It looks like that's it for us for a while. Hopefully the AFD is correct and we get a few more inches. I only have 1.3"

heavy...widespread rain to occur during this time period...and into NE/ec Georgia between 12z and 18z. North Georgia ffg values are in the 3-4 
inches/6 hour range and 5-6 in/6 hour across central Georgia. Some areas of north Georgia from atl westward have already seen 2-3 inches of rain this 
morning. Additional rainfall of 2-3 inches north and 1-2 central expected...with isolated 4 inch amounts northwest/NC/NE Georgia.

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Looks like Turkey Day and thereabouts could also be wet in the Blairsville, Suches, Dahlonage area. Been thinking about hiking Woody Gap to Trey via lake Winfield (but not in the rain!). Got a good sticking snow at Woody last Friday a week ago, though!

If weather forecasts improve - hope to eat a cranberry sandwich somewhere up there next week!

pcbjr

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Watching the models regularly now in regards to the post Thanksgiving period. Noticing with consistency 2 things that as always are subject to change. 1) I'll probably be cutting down the ole Christmas tree in rain this year, thanks to being caught up in a transition zone/ i.e crawling front. 2) Day 10-15 the drumbeat is loud for some pretty respectable cold all the way down into the GOM, but seeing off and on hints at a possible coastal forming along the Carolinas. 18z tonight shows this feature again. Something to watch as the time-period draws closer. One thing is for sure, I'm ready to see the pacific cooperate . It's almost tee-time (Dec 1st) and now is the time we need it to start getting in line more favorably.

gfs_pcp_336s.gif

gfs_pcp_348s.gif

compare.pn.png

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Just a little FYI...there is a chatroom now operating (look under the "Go To" tab at the top of the page). It's based on Tinychat, which allows audio and video to be transmitted. Even cooler is the "whiteboard" function that allows you to whip up quick drawings and share them with other people. It's pretty awesome really, once we get some real threats on the table it'll be useful.

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It is random when I can and can not get on.

Have you tried messing with your DNS settings...

http://www.americanw...annot-be-found/

http://www.americanw...site-from-home/

No issues here, both on the home network (PC and Mac), and out in town on 3g from the iphone. Someone mentioned about a phishing attack that originated from this domain several years ago and that caused some ISP's to block access.

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Thank you WeatherNC. Anyway I am taking a look at the GFS rolling in for tomorrow's severe parameters and it certainly has the warm sector getting in here at a reasonable time along with solid dewpoints and a low level jet etc. The CAPE is marginal of course but as mentioned that can still yeild some action this time of the year. My question is where exactly will that wedge boundary set up because that may be a mesoscale trigger to watch. I am still holding out some hope for a chase tomorrow. Storm motion doesn't appear to be too non chase friendly as it often can be here (still less than optimal though).

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New HWO from RAH...

1107 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC TUESDAY... AHEAD OF A

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS

WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL

DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...

THEN BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC

THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY

BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE... WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS

AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXPERIENCES

A SECONDARY SEVERE WEATHER MAXIMUM IN MID NOVEMBER...AND THAT

SEVERE WEATHER CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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From the FFC

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ARE A

SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. FIRST...EXCESSIVE

HELICITY...0-2KM AGL IN EXCESS OF 1000...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...IN

EXCESS OF 50KTS...IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TUE.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT THAT POINT...AN AREA OF STRONG

PVA AND CAPES NEAR 500 WILL BE NOSING NEWD FROM SOUTHERN AL INTO SW

GA. AN EARLY MORNING QLCS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM CSG SOUTHWARD. THIS

MOVES EAST THROUGH 18Z AND COULD REMAIN STRONG EVEN INTO EAST

GEORGIA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS SWING

THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS MAXIMIZED BY

18Z...WITH CAPES 500+ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PART OF THE CWA

AND LIS NEAR -3. THE GFS/ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE BEST LOW-LEVEL

HELICITY/SHEAR INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE NAM PAINTS

A NASTY PICTURE OF MAXIMUM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PHASED QUITE WELL

AND TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. ANY BREAKS IN THE

OVC IN THE WAKE OF THE PARENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD YIELD A

VERY VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. FOR NOW...SPC HAS UPGRADED

THE SC/SW PART OF THE CWA TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR TUE.

I'm getting a bit worried about this one in the NE GA area as GSP has mentioned it too. FFC seems to trend southward but it will be interesting.

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Have you tried messing with your DNS settings...

http://www.americanw...annot-be-found/

http://www.americanw...site-from-home/

No issues here, both on the home network (PC and Mac), and out in town on 3g from the iphone. Someone mentioned about a phishing attack that originated from this domain several years ago and that caused some ISP's to block access.

I had problems too, come to find out it had something to do with my internet provider

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The GFS shows a cold snap on the horizon every year. Sounds like normal to me.

Yeah, lol...when the Goofy quits having amazing wonder events out 12 days is when I start to worry :)

Me, I'm going with Larry's musings about what if a new minimum were setting up :thumbsup: And, anyway, there is always hope until early April. T

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GFS puts down around an inch here tomorrow...I guess we'll see.

This look likes it'd be fun:

gfs_pcp_384s.gif

:tomato:

Guess we'll have to wait and see, won't we?  :)   Interestingly enough, by what I'm seeing here, this falls in line with what some of us were thinking we could technically see around the time that the pattern supposingly shifts for colder and stormier conditions as soon as we kick things off for December.  Also, didn't GFS's runs from last year during early December show something similar to this?  Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

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day1otlk_1200.gif

:unsure:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1200 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA/NORTH

FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

BASAL PORTION OF THE BROAD CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED

STRONG POLAR JET/ IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND TRANSITION FROM A

NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX EARLY

TODAY...AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES BY EARLY

TUESDAY. MARITIME AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY/PARTIALLY RETURN GENERALLY

NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...AHEAD OF AN

EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM THE

CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.

...GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE ARKLATEX

VICINITY...APPRECIABLE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY

ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING AS A MARITIME

AIRMASS RETURNS INLAND...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT DETERRED BY

ONGOING/PERSISTENT REINFORCING-TYPE RAINFALL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST

PROBABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL GENERALLY

BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL AND GA/THE FL

PANHANDLE...AS THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD MARKEDLY STRENGTHENS

/ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT FLOW AROUND 1 KM/. IN SPITE OF WEAK BUOYANCY

/500 J PER KG OR LESS IN MOST AREAS/...THE DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE

FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL YIELD A SCENARIO CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST

AN ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND OTHERWISE

PROBABLE QLCS DEVELOPMENT/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF A FEW

TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE.

FARTHER NORTHEAST AND A BIT LATER IN THE DAY...INITIALLY FROM THE

CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT...CONSIDERABLE DEEP

LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT/ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL

TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS

THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY

AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MEAGER

MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...BUT NONETHELESS THE DEGREE OF FORCING

AND ASSOCIATED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR

WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A TORNADO SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT MEAGER/

NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY MATERIALIZE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COASTAL

/AND PERHAPS PIEDMONT/ PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS MAY HAVE A SOMEWHAT

HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION/SURFACE BASED

TSTMS...AND THUS PERHAPS A SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED/RELATIVELY

HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS...WHILE A

BROAD PORTION OF THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE A MODEST PROBABILITY OF

EXPERIENCING WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO...A SLIGHT RISK HAS

BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 11/16/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

CURRENT UTC TIME: 1215Z (7:15AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

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Happy day of birth to Robert (FoothillsNC)!!

Hope it is a rainy one :)

Happy Birthday Robert! I'm sending you the Broad River water from over 2 inches of rain so far. Stayed warm here overnight. 49 now.

Took these photos in Rutherfordton yesterday. Looks like a "peak" to me!

Thanks Guys! Hope it pours soon.

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