November 2010

[luvweather]

Checking in...I don't know enough to post yet but I am still learning, I do read daily during the winter months. As always I am looking forward to learning more from all you guys...good luck to all of us hope we all get at least 1 or 2 good events

[MotoWeatherman]

Thanks! Sorry about the trouble loading it though.

It's been a great cam, it's currently running wirelessly but it can also run wired. It has it's own built in webserver and can stream 3 different video streams at once. I added a 16GB micro SD card and it's now acting like a DVR and recording everything. It also has motion detection, can ftp or email images, it does snapshots, and native DDNS support. Highly recommended.

What model cam did you get? Noticed several on the site. Thanks in advance.

[Brian]

Wow new run of the GFS shows bitter cold again for SE.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KPDK

[DaculaWeather]

What model cam did you get? Noticed several on the site. Thanks in advance.

It's a Sharx SCNC2606 indoor camera. Maybe for Christmas I'll get the outdoor IR version for the backyard.

[Northstar]

A nice, soaking all-day rain in the making, it looks like. Don't have a working rain gauge at the moment, but I'm sure I've surpassed the one-inch mark so far, with lots more to come from the west.

Hopefully this will be a common theme this winter, along with some cold air to go with it.

[Cheeznado]

For once I have been in the rain sweet spot- approaching 1.5" and no end in sight. May end up with over 3" by tomorrow.....

[MotoWeatherman]

It's a Sharx SCNC2606 indoor camera. Maybe for Christmas I'll get the outdoor IR version for the backyard.

Thanks!

For once I have been in the rain sweet spot- approaching 1.5" and no end in sight. May end up with over 3" by tomorrow.....

It's about time.

Steady light rain to your north. Up to .40" so far today.

[Cheeznado]

Wow new run of the GFS shows bitter cold again for SE.

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KPDK

Euro ensembles all over the place after a week or so but not many if any members show that cold blast- this is probably just the typical GFS fantasy long-range cold outbreak that almost never verifies....

[FoothillsNC]

Euro ensembles all over the place after a week or so but not many if any members show that cold blast- this is probably just the typical GFS fantasy long-range cold outbreak that almost never verifies....

I don't know. Big picture still looks good to me for us to eventually get cold. The way I see it, next week the huge trough out west pumps up our ridge, so we're probably looking at record warm for several days beginning around Sunday , meanwhile the NAO is forecast to keep going very negative and eventually probably have a fully closed, west based block over Greenland. Wes has a good explanation of this in another thread, so the idea of some cold to start December is probably legit. By after Thanksgiving, most likely the flow should align for a PNA pattern, with the block firmly entrenched, so we go from record heat to below normal temps, and probably very below centered around the Lakes, imo. That could very well be a dry, cold flow, but atleast it would be cold.

The big transition to that would be Thanksgiving Day, with a strong southwest flow, one or more overrunning events around this strong Arctic Boundary. With low level cold across the Tenn/Ohio Valley, I'd expect the first Winter event to our west and northwest. Heres my very, very preliminary guess.

[DaculaWeather]

Man!!! That's really cold for us!

GFS 180 Hour Forecast

[strongwxnc]

And thus the battle lines will be drawn....

I don't know. Big picture still looks good to me for us to eventually get cold. The way I see it, next week the huge trough out west pumps up our ridge, so we're probably looking at record warm for several days beginning around Sunday , meanwhile the NAO is forecast to keep going very negative and eventually probably have a fully closed, west based block over Greenland. Wes has a good explanation of this in another thread, so the idea of some cold to start December is probably legit. By after Thanksgiving, most likely the flow should align for a PNA pattern, with the block firmly entrenched, so we go from record heat to below normal temps, and probably very below centered around the Lakes, imo. That could very well be a dry, cold flow, but atleast it would be cold.

The big transition to that would be Thanksgiving Day, with a strong southwest flow, one or more overrunning events around this strong Arctic Boundary. With low level cold across the Tenn/Ohio Valley, I'd expect the first Winter event to our west and northwest. Heres my very, very preliminary guess.

[Brian]

Could start to get more interesting, I don't want record highs though, we have had enough of those this year.:gun_bandana:

[RevDodd]

I don't know. Big picture still looks good to me for us to eventually get cold. The way I see it, next week the huge trough out west pumps up our ridge, so we're probably looking at record warm for several days beginning around Sunday , meanwhile the NAO is forecast to keep going very negative and eventually probably have a fully closed, west based block over Greenland. Wes has a good explanation of this in another thread, so the idea of some cold to start December is probably legit. By after Thanksgiving, most likely the flow should align for a PNA pattern, with the block firmly entrenched, so we go from record heat to below normal temps, and probably very below centered around the Lakes, imo. That could very well be a dry, cold flow, but atleast it would be cold.

The big transition to that would be Thanksgiving Day, with a strong southwest flow, one or more overrunning events around this strong Arctic Boundary. With low level cold across the Tenn/Ohio Valley, I'd expect the first Winter event to our west and northwest. Heres my very, very preliminary guess.

Well....if that's coming off record warmth, if we can't get snow, maybe some late season severe activity will suffice.

[NEGa]

after reading dawson and rosie, i am glad i am not the only one with windstream lol - we really could use some competition!!! not the most reliable service, esp when its raining

been getting a good dose of rain here today and its nice and cool. hopefully will get a decent amount imby since it hasnt really rained much lately

[burgertime]

This was interesting what DT wrote in his forecast for this winter:

All winter and into early Spring of 2011 the 6-10 day and 11-15 day Operational GFS is going to be giving off numerous signals or " false Alerts" that a major cold air outbreak and/ or major pattern change is coming for the central and eastern Conus. The Model will consistently misplay the powerful / enhanced Pacific Jet stream thus giving off " false alerts".

Sorry I couldn't keep that outrageous font he uses.

[Brian]

Does this mean it will never get cold?

[NEGa]

Does this mean it will never get cold?

i think it means that this will be one of those infamous years where the "cold" and "winter" are always 10 days away. in other words, the models keep showing a huge cold snap, but it keeps getting pushed back and never quite arrives (that happened a couple of years ago and was awful)

if the cold that is shown does materialize yippee! if not, then it could be a long, depressing winter where it looks like a good storm is coming, only to have that day come as sunny and warm

[BIG FROSTY]

FWIW_ DT says no COLD for the east----------------- the cold pattern IS going to stay over western Canada into the Pacfic NW and into CALIF and the Great Basin

why the snow cover in this new pattern will make up over Canada and Siberia for lost ground over the past 7 days

why with a MASSIVE -NAO and strong classic 50/50 Low the cold is not coming

why the cold is NOT coming east in the 11-15 day... and folks need to stop banging that drum if they want any credibility

[Brian]

i think it means that this will be one of those infamous years where the "cold" and "winter" are always 10 days away. in other words, the models keep showing a huge cold snap, but it keeps getting pushed back and never quite arrives (that happened a couple of years ago and was awful)

if the cold that is shown does materialize yippee! if not, then it could be a long, depressing winter where it looks like a good storm is coming, only to have that day come as sunny and warm

Crap, sounds great...................Thanks for the explanation..

[EmersonGA]

This was interesting what DT wrote in his forecast for this winter:

Sorry I couldn't keep that outrageous font he uses.

The GFS shows a cold snap on the horizon every year. Sounds like normal to me.

[Weather Czar]

Is anyone else having problems getting on using a blackberry?

[HKY_WX]

FWIW_ DT says no COLD for the east----------------- the cold pattern IS going to stay over western Canada into the Pacfic NW and into CALIF and the Great Basin

why the snow cover in this new pattern will make up over Canada and Siberia for lost ground over the past 7 days

why with a MASSIVE -NAO and strong classic 50/50 Low the cold is not coming

why the cold is NOT coming east in the 11-15 day... and folks need to stop banging that drum if they want any credibility

He could be right if the blocking showing up is wrong. But IMO if the 12z euro/gfs are correct with that feature being so massive, it will eventually bring cold air into the ECONUS. You can see it on the day 10 euro from today for a view.

[NEGa]

The GFS shows a cold snap on the horizon every year. Sounds like normal to me.

yes it does - hence the fantasy gfs 240 hr storm lol. happens all the time with it. the difference is that a couple of years when this happened, the cold really never did arrive. it was a dismal winter. as long as we get forecasts for cold spells, and they actually happen, we should be ok. this is the se after all, and unlike last years unusual winter, it rarely gets cold - and stays cold - in the se for weeks on end (last year being the obvious exception)

the general consensus this year seems to be warmer and drier and not like last year. we all got spoiled big time with last years exceptional winter so it could seem even worse this year. as long as we can get a couple of good set ups and at least one or two frozen events it could still be a decent winter (although what most of us wouldnt give for a repeat of last year )

[oconeexman]

yes it does - hence the fantasy gfs 240 hr storm lol. happens all the time with it. the difference is that a couple of years when this happened, the cold really never did arrive. it was a dismal winter. as long as we get forecasts for cold spells, and they actually happen, we should be ok. this is the se after all, and unlike last years unusual winter, it rarely gets cold - and stays cold - in the se for weeks on end (last year being the obvious exception)

the general consensus this year seems to be warmer and drier and not like last year. we all got spoiled big time with last years exceptional winter so it could seem even worse this year. as long as we can get a couple of good set ups and at least one or two frozen events it could still be a decent winter (although what most of us wouldnt give for a repeat of last year )

Not sure I can take another depressing winter..last year filled with let downs, at least there aren't many expectations this year from all the warm dry forecasts. I'm going with what Foothills says and looking for a few surprises here and there.

Nice cam Dacula!!

[Itunis]

Here is FFC's summary of rainfall totals so far. A very nice event so far for the immediate ATL metro at least.

[Brian]

Here is FFC's summary of rainfall totals so far. A very nice event so far for the immediate ATL metro at least.

I am at 1.76 as of 1530..........

[HWY316wx]

Nice cam Dacula!!

I have quicktime on my computer but I keep getting "401 Not authorized"

[Brian]

Could get Severe.

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia

348 PM EST Monday Nov 15 2010

Synopsis...

deep upper trough central U.S. Will shift into the eastern U.S. By

Wednesday. Surface cyclogenesis will develop along the central Gulf Coast

early Tuesday and quickly intensify as it moves northeast toward the

western Ohio Valley in an area of strong positive vorticity advection in advance of the upper

trough. Another reinforcing vigorous short wave will drop into the

mean eastern U.S. Trough by the late part of the week. Overall...the

flow will remain quite progressive through this forecast package.

Main concerns will be focused on short term periods...when threat

for severe thunderstorms...including even tornadoes...and heavy

rain/flooding all are a possibility.

19

&&

Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...

severe weather and heavy rain threat first three periods as full

latitude...deep upper trough shifts from the central U.S. Into the

eastern U.S. As a steady stream of short waves from the northern

Pacific keep the pattern quite progressive. A rather classic setup

expected for rapid cyclogenesis and associated parameters across the

eastern U.S. During the next 48 hours. First wave of warm

frontal...overrunning rain currently spreading across the north half of

the County Warning Area. This will continue through the afternoon/early evening

yielding general rainfall amounts of 0.5 inch across north Georgia.

Categorical probability of precipitation across the northwest half through 06z. Minimal quantitative precipitation forecast

expected across central Georgia counties with this first wave. The next

wave of precipitation will develop across the lower MS valley between 00z-06z

this evening as the main upper trough takes on a negative tilt and

begins to lift out of etx/la. Associated precipitation will spread into SW Georgia

shortly after midnight...then across the remainder of the County Warning Area

between 06z and 12z. Again categorical probability of precipitation will be indicated. As

these synoptic evolve...deep SW flow aloft will bring ample Gulf

moisture up and northward across the region. Expect

heavy...widespread rain to occur during this time period...and into

NE/ec Georgia between 12z and 18z. North Georgia ffg values are in the 3-4

inches/6 hour range and 5-6 in/6 hour across central Georgia. Some areas of north

Georgia from atl westward have already seen 2-3 inches of rain this

morning. Additional rainfall of 2-3 inches north and 1-2 central

expected...with isolated 4 inch amounts northwest/NC/NE Georgia. A Flood Watch

may need to be issued later this evening or tonight...but current

thinking is that flooding will be localized drainage issues with

some minor river flooding...especially later on in time at penfg1

and aphg1...but widespread flooding or flash flooding is not

anticipated. A third wave of more scattered convection can be

expected in the warm sector of the synoptic scale system as it

tracks across the area Tuesday afternoon. This activity will be moving

fast and unlikely to linger long enough in any given location to

aggravate the flooding situation.

Severe thunderstorms...including possible tornadoes...are a

significant concern with this weather system. First...excessive

helicity...0-2km above ground level in excess of 1000...and low-level shear...in

excess of 50kts...is prognosticated to track across the County Warning Area early Tuesday.

Although instability is minimal at that point...an area of strong

positive vorticity advection and convective available potential energy near 500 will be nosing northeastward from southern Alabama into SW

Georgia. An early morning qlcs with damaging wind gusts and isolated

tornadoes will be possible...especially from csg southward. This

moves east through 18z and could remain strong even into East

Georgia. However...the main trough and associated dynamics swing

through the County Warning Area during the afternoon. Instability has maximized by

18z...with convective available potential energy 500+ across the southern/eastern part of the County Warning Area

and lifted indices near -3. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) has shifted the best low-level

helicity/shear into the Carolinas at this point...but the NAM paints

a nasty picture of maximum shear and instability phased quite well

and tracking across the County Warning Area in the 18z-00z period. Any breaks in the

overcast in the wake of the parent precipitation shield could yield a

very volatile atmosphere capable of supporting supercells with

hail...damaging winds...and tornadoes. For now...Storm Prediction Center has upgraded

the SC/SW part of the County Warning Area to a slight risk for Tuesday.

Models have done poorly on maximum/min temperatures the past two days with the

change in air mass...cloud cover...and precipitation. Will use a mav/met

blend for the short term and adjust for expected insolation Tuesday

afternoon. Any breaks in the overcast Tuesday afternoon could through a big

wrench in expected maximum temperatures Tuesday. The passage of the upper trough

and associated surface front will bring weak cold advection to the

region Tuesday night...but more importantly much drier conditions.

Expect any threat for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to end quickly after 00z Wednesday as the

upper-level trough axis shifts east of the area.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/...

generally tranquil conditions expected through much of the long

term...especially compared with the first two days of the forecast

package. Progressive flow aloft will continue across the U.S.

Throughout the period. A strong short wave will dive southeast from the north

central U.S. Wednesday-Thursday in the wake of the early weak major weather

system. The main focus for this second system will be across the

central Appalachians. Surface-based moisture will be limited across our

region...but with strong dynamics just to the north...mid-level

clouds could spread across the northern counties...with isolated

orographically induced rain showers in the NE mountains. Beyond this...dry

west-northwest-west flow aloft will dominate the remainder of the long term with

weak surface high pressure dominating. No major influx of Canadian or

Arctic air seen with this pattern...so expect seasonably cool temperatures.

The next chance for precipitation does not come until a weak front/upper

trough reaches the area near Thanksgiving.

19

&&

Aviation...

18z update

difficult forecast as ceilings west of a csg-atl line vary from LIFR

to VFR. Will trend on the low side of the ceilings with MVFR/IFR in

atl and trend the other sites down through early tonight. Most

areas after 06z will be either MVFR or IFR. Rain will become

widespread over the entire County Warning Area after 06z. Do not expect any

thunder until after 18z Tuesday. Winds will return to a southeast

direction later this afternoon and remain south to southeast until

late Tuesday morning when a shift to the southwest will take

place.

//Atl confidence...18z update...

low to medium for all elements through 06z

medium for all elements after 06z

17

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Athens 54 67 42 65 / 100 100 50 0

Atlanta 57 67 42 62 / 100 100 50 0

Blairsville 51 60 37 56 / 100 100 50 0

Cartersville 53 66 38 62 / 100 100 40 0

Columbus 61 75 45 67 / 100 100 30 0

Gainesville 53 64 41 61 / 100 100 50 0

Macon 60 76 44 68 / 80 100 50 0

Rome 53 64 37 61 / 100 100 40 0

Peachtree City 57 69 40 63 / 100 100 40 0

Vidalia 57 78 53 71 / 50 70 50 0

[EmersonGA]

Is anyone else having problems getting on using a blackberry?

I got on using my blackberry several times yesterday without issue.

[downeastnc]

SPC has a see text tag over the area for tommorrow evening and has most of the state in the 5% for severe, hoping to see a slight risk by morning at least for the central and eastern parts of NC/SC

From SPC

LATER IN THE DAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO LOCATIONS FARTHER NE AS

THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND AXIS OF THE 50 KT

LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. NRN EDGE OF MORNING

STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH ADDITIONAL WARM-SECTOR STORMS

FORMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS/PIEDMONT OF

NC/SC/GA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...THREATS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED

ORGANIZED STORMS /MIX OF LINEAR AND DISCRETE/ WILL EXIST THROUGH

TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE FIVE PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE

BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SERN ATLANTIC

STATES.