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November 2010


FoothillsNC

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Warm front must be on the move. Temp has spiked from 48 an hour ago to 55 currently. DP has also come up to 52. Setting the stage for a wild evening!

my temp is climbing since an hour ago, so the front probably just past me and is working west. I wasn't wanting to be in the warm sector.

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The wedge front just passed through me, heading west. Watch out Mark. My temp went from 46 a couple hours ago to 49 then 54 in the last few minutes. Really foggy now. I don't like being this close to a tight gradient with a tornado box to my southwest. I'd bet things get rough with an outbreak possible atleast some isolated weak ones later this evening.

post-38-0-07830200-1291132458.gif

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Jackson County is now above 2.5" in most of the reporting gauges. Some along the Pkwy have surpassed 3".

Looking forward to driving the Pkwy tomorrow morning to catch a few flakes; if they decide to keep it open. If its closed then Im heading up to Soco Gap near Maggie Valley for some high elevation snow action! I dont expect much but a few passing snsh but it might be the last time i see white stuff for a week or so.

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0z Euro puts snow down in TX/OK into AR then into southern TN and northern MS/AL, extreme north GA and northern Upstate SC and into southern NC. Precip doesn't make it any farther north than I-40 this time around.

Canadian takes the parent surface low into southeast MI.

My gut is the GFS is really over-amplifying the eastern NA trough early next week.....this is in the wheelhouse of GFS biases. Thus, is continues to crush the disturbance and suppress it too much.

Canadian is probably over-intensifying the low with wrapping it up that far north.

I think a solution somewhere relatively close to what the 0z Euro today and yesterday showed is the way I leaning right now.

With all of that said, our storm system today is really kind of the first domino to fall relating to our pattern next week as it moves into the Northeast. So, changes and model flip-flops are likely.

Speaking of today/tonight's system, I am concerned about the severe weather potential tonight. A lot of the severe weather indices around here are progged to be quite comparable to what has been in place across the Deep South last night/ early this AM. And as the surface low really starts to crank near that triple point as it approaches the region, the wind profiles could become even more conducive. Instability is obviously lacking in a large sense, but there could easily be enough for lots of damaging wind reports and some tornadoes as well.

Well, if it's anything like last winter, the models trended more north with the snow as it got closer to the zero hour. Have to see if that is the case again. But we'll have to get through this severe weather first and then see about the snow for next week. Funny how we get these snow chances after severe weather here.

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Hey Folks, my latest discussion. Watch out for the severe threat this evenign and overnight. Thanks for reading.

http://www.examiner....storm-potential

Sounds like it's going to feel a lot like Christmas here next week! Cold weather and a chance of snow. I love it! I'm also glad it's the Euro that is showing our best chance for snow here.

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Link us to your sites for checking gauges.. NWS?

Thanks..

Jackson County is now above 2.5" in most of the reporting gauges. Some along the Pkwy have surpassed 3".

Looking forward to driving the Pkwy tomorrow morning to catch a few flakes; if they decide to keep it open. If its closed then Im heading up to Soco Gap near Maggie Valley for some high elevation snow action! I dont expect much but a few passing snsh but it might be the last time i see white stuff for a week or so.

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Anyone reporting snow or flurries in Memphis?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

909 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCLUDE WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET OR SNOW

ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. MINOR

ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF PERSISTANT WINTER

PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL BOTH NEAR THE

SURFACE AND ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A

MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD

REMAIN LIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY IF ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OR

TRAVEL DETERIORATES FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

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