msuwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 0z Euro puts snow down in TX/OK into AR then into southern TN and northern MS/AL, extreme north GA and northern Upstate SC and into southern NC. Precip doesn't make it any farther north than I-40 this time around. Canadian takes the parent surface low into southeast MI. My gut is the GFS is really over-amplifying the eastern NA trough early next week.....this is in the wheelhouse of GFS biases. Thus, is continues to crush the disturbance and suppress it too much. Canadian is probably over-intensifying the low with wrapping it up that far north. I think a solution somewhere relatively close to what the 0z Euro today and yesterday showed is the way I leaning right now. With all of that said, our storm system today is really kind of the first domino to fall relating to our pattern next week as it moves into the Northeast. So, changes and model flip-flops are likely. Speaking of today/tonight's system, I am concerned about the severe weather potential tonight. A lot of the severe weather indices around here are progged to be quite comparable to what has been in place across the Deep South last night/ early this AM. And as the surface low really starts to crank near that triple point as it approaches the region, the wind profiles could become even more conducive. Instability is obviously lacking in a large sense, but there could easily be enough for lots of damaging wind reports and some tornadoes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 0z Euro puts snow down in TX/OK into AR then into southern TN and northern MS/AL, extreme north GA and northern Upstate SC and into southern NC. Precip doesn't make it any farther north than I-40 this time around. Canadian takes the parent surface low into southeast MI. My gut is the GFS is really over-amplifying the eastern NA trough early next week.....this is in the wheelhouse of GFS biases. Thus, is continues to crush the disturbance and suppress it too much. Canadian is probably over-intensifying the low with wrapping it up that far north. I think a solution somewhere relatively close to what the 0z Euro today and yesterday showed is the way I leaning right now. With all of that said, our storm system today is really kind of the first domino to fall relating to our pattern next week as it moves into the Northeast. So, changes and model flip-flops are likely. Speaking of today/tonight's system, I am concerned about the severe weather potential tonight. A lot of the severe weather indices around here are progged to be quite comparable to what has been in place across the Deep South last night/ early this AM. And as the surface low really starts to crank near that triple point as it approaches the region, the wind profiles could become even more conducive. Instability is obviously lacking in a large sense, but there could easily be enough for lots of damaging wind reports and some tornadoes as well. NAM is painting some pretty significant qpf...if's the NAM of course but any concerns for flooding around the CLT area? Also thanks for the update on next weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Bring it on! Temperatures have varied little since midnight with a low of 42 and currently sitting at 46 and rising 1.1 degrees/hr. It's VERY foggy so it doesn't feel too bad outside. According to my Davis I've had .82" in the last 24 hours, .14" since midnight. I check my CoCoRaHS in about 20 minutes (looks like no rain around that time!!!). It's been raining off and on, when it rains, it rains hard, it just doesn't last long right now. The individual showers and TS are moving very quickly NE. It appears the main batch of rain is moving east very slowly and is fairly wide. THIS will be my chance for the big rain. Glad to hear some of you are getting the rain you needed. I'm with you! I thought the radio show was good last night. Always something to learn. I new here and I know who Wes is but if you don't mind me asking, who is DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 DT is the snow Nazi. Got kicked out of eastern for some reasons other can post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Transylvania County is racking up the rain! Majority of the stations reporting have surpassed 2.5" !!! We are sitting around an inch and a quarter in da whee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yes, I can see the possibility of flash flooding problems even in the Triad and Charlotte zones. But the bigger problem areas will be the foothills/ mountains. I still think storm total amounts of 3-5" in many of those areas. NAM is painting some pretty significant qpf...if's the NAM of course but any concerns for flooding around the CLT area? Also thanks for the update on next weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 .84" last night. I was not expecting that much!! Also. Sitting at 44.6. Temp has held steady during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 .60 so far, very windy and a balmy 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Wow Rosie! The warm air got to you before it's gotten to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Wow Rosie! The warm air got to you before it's gotten to me! Same here...sitting at 51.4. .58" of rain today and .98" yesterday for a storm total of 1.56" so far here in Dahlonega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Storm total about 1.5" the temp has risen some but it's still pretty chilly at 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 SE TENN is getting hammered right now. Heavy stuff looks to be headed towards the Nooga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 As usual, most of the precip is sliding up the west side of the mountains. A measly .38 here. If I crack an inch I'll be surprised. Warm air streaming in now, up 7 degrees in the past 2 hours to 53.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 8 am update 4.02 so far been a steasdy moderate rain about all nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 That is amazing. You area always gets racked in this setup. Thanks for the obs, keep them coming!!!! 8 am update 4.02 so far been a steasdy moderate rain about all nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Same here...sitting at 51.4. .58" of rain today and .98" yesterday for a storm total of 1.56" so far here in Dahlonega. i must keep getting in the no rain hole, .60 is it for yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Don't worry Rosie, it's coming your way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 They just issued a Tornado Watch for the west side metro Atlanta counties. Doesn't include Gwinnett but those counties to the west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 When I left the house this morning i had 1.25" in the gauge and since I've been at work we've had some downpours. Temps rising very slowly 48° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 8 am update 4.02 so far been a steasdy moderate rain about all nite. Wow. That is amazing. You area always gets racked in this setup. Thanks for the obs, keep them coming!!!! I'm suprised to have as much as I do, but the GFS insisted that some decent totals would be here by morning. This map is a little underdone, I'm at .45" overnight. Still lightly raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 That map always looks a little underdone.... Wow. I'm suprised to have as much as I do, but the GFS insisted that some decent totals would be here by morning. This map is a little underdone, I'm at .45" overnight. Still lightly raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Wow. I'm suprised to have as much as I do, but the GFS insisted that some decent totals would be here by morning. This map is a little underdone, I'm at .45" overnight. Still lightly raining If I remember correctly you have now doubled your monthly total! Congrats. Hope to see you hit the 1" mark before its all said and done. Rainforrest, I love to hear your reports, even during last years snow, you always impressed; especially you being about 30 min away. Sitting around an inch and half in the whee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Here's the one I was looking at: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 That map always looks a little underdone.... I think in light rain/southeasterly upslope situations its usually underdone, but usually its pretty good for me in general. For the yearly total estimates on the analysis page it looks legit. If I remember correctly you have now doubled your monthly total! Congrats. Hope to see you hit the 1" mark before its all said and done. Rainforrest, I love to hear your reports, even during last years snow, you always impressed; especially you being about 30 min away and so drastic in conditions. well my monthly total before this was about .50" so yeah its almost doubled now. Surely I can get another .50" from this one to give me an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 When I got up at 530 this morning it was 44, now 63.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 That map always looks a little underdone.... I also checked Wright Weather's which is exactly the same, to the pixel. So I'm not sure why this instance is underdone here. Whats your total. I'm wondering if the radar mode has been changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 When I got up at 530 this morning it was 44, now 63.... Check out my radar page that has the metar obs overlaid on it. Very obvious where the warm front and CAD is. http://www.motoweatherman.com/radarFFC/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm up to .85 inches here for the event. Temp is up to 47.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 As of 7am this morning it was .84". So I assume maybe another .10 since then. also, When should we see the winds began to shift to the SW and S? I also checked Wright Weather's which is exactly the same, to the pixel. So I'm not sure why this instance is underdone here. Whats your total. I'm wondering if the radar mode has been changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 You can get a feel for it here: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?brand=wxmap&query=33.97674,-83.87482&lat=33.97674&lon=-83.87482&zoom=11&type=ter&units=english&wxsn=1&wxsn.mode=temp&rad=0&cams=1&sat=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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