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November 2010


FoothillsNC

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that was a good question from Jeremy on the show. I think he asked if we don't cash in December, then are we done until February. I agree with DT odds aren't good for January but this isn't our only shot. The amplified pattern should continue for a while yet, maybe the whole winter. This nina isn't a typical one, so I wouldn't cast it with others exactly. I'd almost bet the neg. NAO comes back several more times this year, based on continuance/persistence.

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Yes good question. Nice to hear a southern draw on the show.

that was a good question from Jeremy on the show. I think he asked if we don't cash in December, then are we done until February. I agree with DT odds aren't good for January but this isn't our only shot. The amplified pattern should continue for a while yet, maybe the whole winter. This nina isn't a typical one, so I wouldn't cast it with others exactly. I'd almost bet the neg. NAO comes back several more times this year, based on continuance/persistence.

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Also there is a tornado reported on the SPC site in Yazoo City, MS. In case you guys do not know that city got hit with a devastating EF4 tornado back in late April. Terrible news if another one hit the city!:twister:

YAZOO CITY YAZOO MS3286 9041 STRUCTURAL AND TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN YAZOO CITY, UNKNOWN MAGNITUDE KNOWN AT THIS TIME AND WILL UPDATE.

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Also there is a tornado reported on the SPC site in Yazoo City, MS. In case you guys do not know that city got hit with a devastating EF4 tornado back in late April. Terrible news if another one hit the city!:twister:

thats bad news. I remember that event. This incredibly high pwat, strong clash of temps, strong winds, and increasingly negative tilt trough, and deep one at that, means business. This will only bode worse as things head east. La Nina Autumns truly are bad news for the South. STay safe. Tomorrow into early Wed. morning should get rough. Tornado watch box just got extended east to western Alabama.

BTW, great show tonight. Both parties did very well in my opinion and the callers had great questions.

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WeatherNC is on

Thanks, how did I do... Called out the ECMWF on hanging energy back in the sw, with GFS ens support around day 7. Also called out the 12z op Euro day 5 as it lacked support from almost every other model on the planet. But noted the 12z big 3 ens means showing sig neg h5 anomalies along the EC mid-late next week. Rough waters sailing forward, like a more subdued solution through the long-term, with an empahis on the TX cutoff that leaves us all with :angry: given the setup. Thanks to Jeremy as he preceded the call with excellent insight.

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that was a good question from Jeremy on the show. I think he asked if we don't cash in December, then are we done until February. I agree with DT odds aren't good for January but this isn't our only shot. The amplified pattern should continue for a while yet, maybe the whole winter. This nina isn't a typical one, so I wouldn't cast it with others exactly. I'd almost bet the neg. NAO comes back several more times this year, based on continuance/persistence.

I agree about this.  As it stands now, December is shaping up to look like what most of us expected.  Eventually, the warmth will come in and hang around for at least 3.5 weeks maybe longer if the SE ridge is strong enough.  I'm thinking sometime during mid or late January is when the warming will kick in and last until after early February when the pattern begins to change in our favor again but that's just my thought on it.  Even if we do average above average in temperatures for January, we can still get snow if everything sets up right, but it will be awfully difficult assuming the pattern setup by then.  At some point during this warm up, I'm predicting there will be a time when a CAD scenario sets up but warm air is here to prevent anything snowy, resulting in what could be a nasty ice storm developing.  We'll have to see.  Aside from that, I also agree about our La Nina and its oddball behavior.  It will be interesting to see how the winter plays out regarding it and a slew of other factors at hand.  Perhaps its atypicalness will do something for a change, but I won't completely bet on it just yet until we see how this upcoming season pans out.    

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Drove up from Miami after two weeks in the humidity. Stopped for gas near Hilton Head, and the temp was 74 degrees at 4 p.m. Pulled into the mountains at 8 p.m, and it was 41 and starting to rain. WOW! Now it's 40, and the rain has been heavy for almost an hour. Great to be back!

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Thanks, how did I do... Called out the ECMWF on hanging energy back in the sw, with GFS ens support around day 7. Also called out the 12z op Euro day 5 as it lacked support from almost every other model on the planet. But noted the 12z big 3 ens means showing sig neg h5 anomalies along the EC mid-late next week. Rough waters sailing forward, like a more subdued solution through the long-term, with an empahis on the TX cutoff that leaves us all with :angry: given the setup. Thanks to Jeremy as he preceded the call with excellent insight.

Good call! There was definitely a focus on the SE compared to most radio shows...I like it.

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I agree about this. As it stands now, December is shaping up to look like what most of us expected. Eventually, the warmth will come in and hang around for at least 3.5 weeks maybe longer if the SE ridge is strong enough. I'm thinking sometime during mid or late January is when the warming will kick in and last until after early February when the pattern begins to change in our favor again but that's just my thought on it. Even if we do average above average in temperatures for January, we can still get snow if everything sets up right, but it will be awfully difficult assuming the pattern setup by then. At some point during this warm up, I'm predicting there will be a time when a CAD scenario sets up but warm air is here to prevent anything snowy, resulting in what could be a nasty ice storm developing. We'll have to see. Aside from that, I also agree about our La Nina and its oddball behavior. It will be interesting to see how the winter plays out regarding it and a slew of other factors at hand. Perhaps its atypicalness will do something for a change, but I won't completely bet on it just yet until we see how this upcoming season pans out.

some of the analogs for this Global SST have the winter events occurring in Dec, and again in March. Which also jives with alot of others thoughts. I don't think anyone is looking for a cold January, but DT also raised another interesting point about how he think the Nina has probably peaked early. Anyone (Larry) have any thoughts on this?

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