FoothillsNC Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 A follow up question... Asheville sits in a broad valley open to the eastern piedmont. Do you think the air nestles itself into this "nook" and then becomes trapped by the Great Balsams and the Black Mtns? I only ask this b/c i feel sheltered sometimes from CAD events as I sit in a mtn valley. TIA. Yes, but this is insitu cold. When ongoing, driven CAD develops usually the coldest air banks east, although in the beginning the residual cold pool hangs around and slowly warms. Hendersonville and south and east of the Beaucatcher mountains and Fairview /Lake Lure region eastward is where the cold will stay during a true synoptic driven CAD, while Boone and the higher elevations begin to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yes, but this is insitu cold. When ongoing, driven CAD develops usually the coldest air banks east, although in the beginning the residual cold pool hangs around and slowly warms. Hendersonville and south and east of the Beaucatcher mountains and Fairview /Lake Lure region eastward is where the cold will stay during a true synoptic driven CAD, while Boone and the higher elevations begin to warm up. Thanks! Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yes, but this is insitu cold. When ongoing, driven CAD develops usually the coldest air banks east, although in the beginning the residual cold pool hangs around and slowly warms. Hendersonville and south and east of the Beaucatcher mountains and Fairview /Lake Lure region eastward is where the cold will stay during a true synoptic driven CAD, while Boone and the higher elevations begin to warm up. Check out your personal messages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 We hit 46 here in in NE Gwinnett County, we're at the lowest (40.2) since midnight right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Sounds like tommorrow night might get interesting ....from SPC WHILE THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A REDUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS TO ESCALATE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/E OF THE APPALACHIANS... PARTICULARLY SC NWD INTO ERN/CNTRL VA. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK THAT AIDS IN MORE NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG UVV...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KTS OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALL BE FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT QLCS SEVERE MODES. HAVE EXPANDED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES NWD ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK INTO MOST OF ERN/CNTRL VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I think the dgex has our storm forming in the 4 corners at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Already up to .35 looking like i could end up with 5-6 inches when all is said and done. Very nice... isentropic lift really cranking out the totals in the favored locations. Meanwhile I'm only at .02" for the day here just NW of Asheville and my temperature is 39.9 degrees. Will be interesting to watch the temp slowly rise later tonight as the WAA overcomes the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Been steadily RAW today around 42° all day here. Light drizzle off and on but now starting to pick up with heavy bands approaching from Toccoa. Hope to fill my new rain gauge slap full by this time tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 It's on now, Accublunder has the S word on 12/7 and 12/8 for me...mark it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 This is a great CAD right now. My temp is still dropping and now sits at 37 - hopefully this will bode well later this winter. Still pretty gust winds as well...add in the rain and its feeling cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Weather Channel's map for next Tuesday night. This means we have no hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Weather Channel's map for next Tuesday night. This means we have no hope Hmmmm... Accuweather and The Weather Channel... time for them to be right, it's gotta happen sooner or later right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 This is a great CAD right now. My temp is still dropping and now sits at 37 - hopefully this will bode well later this winter. Still pretty gust winds as well...add in the rain and its feeling cold Been a while since we've seen this strong of a CAD this early to my knowledge...hopefully a good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hmmmm... Accuweather and The Weather Channel... time for them to be right, it's gotta happen sooner or later right? Now is as good of time for them to be right as ever! 44 degrees here by the way. Wonderful cold day here today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It is just dumping rain here. Only been raining for about 45 minutes and we are already approaching an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 you guys in northeast Georgia are about to get dumped on. Maybe the GFS was onto something, the echoes keep expanding and getting higher returns approaching ne corner of the state as well as western SC and sw NC. I'm def. jealous. The FFC radar shows the continuous redevelopment, wouldn't surprise me to see the estimates are underdone in some spots. The PWATS are ridiculous to begin with and this system has a lot going for it to be a major rainmaker there so I'm thinking some isolated 4" amounts near the Rabun/Oconee/Transylvania triangle. I'd hate to think if we ever had this type of moisture surge on top of a 1040 damming high, of course the synoptics would almost make it impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 First real heavy band puttin it down now, make for a good night sleep..4 am comes early especially when you've been off for 5 days I'll check the gauge in the morning and report in, good luck all with much moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 you guys in northeast Georgia are about to get dumped on. Maybe the GFS was onto something, the echoes keep expanding and getting higher returns approaching ne corner of the state as well as western SC and sw NC. I'm def. jealous. The FFC radar shows the continuous redevelopment, wouldn't surprise me to see the estimates are underdone in some spots. The PWATS are ridiculous to begin with and this system has a lot going for it to be a major rainmaker there so I'm thinking some isolated 4" amounts near the Rabun/Oconee/Transylvania triangle. I'd hate to think if we ever had this type of moisture surge on top of a 1040 damming high, of course the synoptics would almost make it impossible. Hope you get a pile of it too. Can't imagine how it's gonna be tomorrow when this thing really gets kicking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hope you get a pile of it too. Can't imagine how it's gonna be tomorrow when this thing really gets kicking! I'm probably one county too far east to get in the good stuff, but tomorrow night I'm sure there will be a good period of a few hours where it pours...just in the knick of time too, to salvage what was going to be a very dry November, by maybe 4 hours , LOL. This happened at the end of September if I recall, the last few hours of the month it rained "just enough" to knock me out of a record dry month by about a quarter inch. Anyway, think my area will be close to a developing triple point tomorrow night, so I may be dealing with twisters . We get a lot of scares with those. I'd prefer the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm probably one county too far east to get in the good stuff, but tomorrow night I'm sure there will be a good period of a few hours where it pours...just in the knick of time too, to salvage what was going to be a very dry November, by maybe 4 hours , LOL. This happened at the end of September if I recall, the last few hours of the month it rained "just enough" to knock me out of a record dry month by about a quarter inch. Anyway, think my area will be close to a developing triple point tomorrow night, so I may be dealing with twisters . We get a lot of scares with those. I'd prefer the rain. It seems like all the tornado warnings for the most are for the northern part of the county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I hear ya on the early clock man.... First real heavy band puttin it down now, make for a good night sleep..4 am comes early especially when you've been off for 5 days I'll check the gauge in the morning and report in, good luck all with much moisture No nighttime twisters please. I love the heavy stuff but I would hate any damage. I'm probably one county too far east to get in the good stuff, but tomorrow night I'm sure there will be a good period of a few hours where it pours...just in the knick of time too, to salvage what was going to be a very dry November, by maybe 4 hours , LOL. This happened at the end of September if I recall, the last few hours of the month it rained "just enough" to knock me out of a record dry month by about a quarter inch. Anyway, think my area will be close to a developing triple point tomorrow night, so I may be dealing with twisters . We get a lot of scares with those. I'd prefer the rain. High hit 45 today here. A nice nice day. Most people think Im nuts at work, but I love a cold cloudy day. Now, as lookout would say, give me 30 degrees!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm probably one county too far east to get in the good stuff, but tomorrow night I'm sure there will be a good period of a few hours where it pours...just in the knick of time too, to salvage what was going to be a very dry November, by maybe 4 hours , LOL. This happened at the end of September if I recall, the last few hours of the month it rained "just enough" to knock me out of a record dry month by about a quarter inch. Anyway, think my area will be close to a developing triple point tomorrow night, so I may be dealing with twisters . We get a lot of scares with those. I'd prefer the rain. SPC mesoscale analysis showing the area of greatest pwats consolidating over western MS, and that may be enhanced downstream by the wet tongue in southern AL and GA, extending down into the EC of FL. http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=pwtr# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 .44 since the steady rain started earlier this evening. Good soaker is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 It seems like all the tornado warnings for the most are for the northern part of the county those south mountain outcroppings are pretty good at inititating supercells, and low level shear spin ups. But theres been about 6 reports within a few miles near me, and especially between Waco to Kings Mountain over the last 7 years I've lived here, so this county has its share for sure. .44 since the steady rain started earlier this evening. Good soaker is on the way You're already at my monthly total, almost. I'm right at .50" this month. LOL. I think you're roughly double my yearly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 those south mountain outcroppings are pretty good at inititating supercells, and low level shear spin ups. But theres been about 6 reports within a few miles near me, and especially between Waco to Kings Mountain over the last 7 years I've lived here, so this county has its share for sure. Yea thats what I was figuring. Those south mountains sure are gorgeous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Radio show is live...DT is on right now "Back like a bad case of clap" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Sounds like we need the upper level low to park over New England based on DT right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 1 inch in the books and the rain is really starting to pick up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Received .46 rainfall today... currently 43 degrees.. very much a raw day today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 1 inch in the books and the rain is really starting to pick up now. Your sure on track.. Perhaps 4 -5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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