November 2010

[Marion_NC_WX]

While we chat about the extended range I think a lot of attention needs to be placed on the next 24-36 hours across the Carolinas. The mountains are in store for some major rainfall but I also think conditions will rapidly change in regards to the triple point setup. For example, my region needs to watch out for the warm front and the severe weather potential. Something tells me that tomorrow and tomorrow night could be very active along the areas that has received several tornadoes so far this fall season. Greenville to Forest City to Statesville...you guys may see some more tornadic cells tomorrow.

[BullCityWx]

If nothing else, last year reminded me how damn tough it is to get a major snowstorm around here. We thought we had all the ducks lined up in December but the warm air came in 6 hours earlier than expected. They were also supposedly lined up on 1/29 but gulf convection robbed our moisture and then we took one last swing at it again in early march and could never get the surface temps cold enough.

[Amos83]

If nothing else, last year reminded me how damn tough it is to get a major snowstorm around here. We thought we had all the ducks lined up in December but the warm air came in 6 hours earlier than expected. They were also supposedly lined up on 1/29 but gulf convection robbed our moisture and then we took one last swing at it again in early march and could never get the surface temps cold enough.

Which is exactly why as fun as it is to watch storms on the models we have to temper our enthusiasm around these parts until the snow is actually falling. Otherwise we all will be jumping off the ledge early this year!

[BullCityWx]

If Cheeznado wants to update us on the euro ensembles, that'd be cool.

[BullCityWx]

Which is exactly why as fun as it is to watch storms on the models we have to temper our enthusiasm around these parts until the snow is actually falling. Otherwise we all will be jumping off the ledge early this year!

That's true.

[HKY18]

Which is exactly why as fun as it is to watch storms on the models we have to temper our enthusiasm around these parts until the snow is actually falling. Otherwise we all will be jumping off the ledge early this year!

yeah we dont wanna be doing

any this year lol

[burgertime]

If nothing else, last year reminded me how damn tough it is to get a major snowstorm around here. We thought we had all the ducks lined up in December but the warm air came in 6 hours earlier than expected. They were also supposedly lined up on 1/29 but gulf convection robbed our moisture and then we took one last swing at it again in early march and could never get the surface temps cold enough.

Which is exactly why as fun as it is to watch storms on the models we have to temper our enthusiasm around these parts until the snow is actually falling. Otherwise we all will be jumping off the ledge early this year!

That's true.

My GF keeps asking about the winter and when I think the first snow will be. I keep saying something along the lines of, "we had the perfect setup last year and you saw how that turned out. This year it's a terrible setup so I am not enthusiastic. Don't expect me to be on the PC much checking out the weather". Yet today I jumped right into the frying pan! It's gotta be our time at some point. While I honestly don't expect much next week I am extremely excited to see what happens.

[eyewall]

There is a radio show tonight so we are already screwed.

[Brick Tamland]

DT sounds very optimistic about this storm over at the other board.

[FoothillsNC]

If nothing else, last year reminded me how damn tough it is to get a major snowstorm around here. We thought we had all the ducks lined up in December but the warm air came in 6 hours earlier than expected. They were also supposedly lined up on 1/29 but gulf convection robbed our moisture and then we took one last swing at it again in early march and could never get the surface temps cold enough.

you pretty much nailed this region with that. It was very fun winter, but we just missed out on an unbelievable winter here in the western Piedmont. Look how many gulf lows there were, like every 4th day for a while there, and it kept repeating. The surface high pressure systems just weren't there...too many weak highs, we had the tracks, just missed the surface air by a fraction. Now, we're seeing surface arctic highs building in the middle of Canada and wih the block so strong and neg. NAO, the chances are actually better for us. Things could easily stay supressed in the new pattern though, which would mean snow to our south. Nothing we can do but wait and see, but one thing that would bite would be to see the MidAtlantic get into another snowy pattern. I wouldn't rule that out either, even with the strong Neg. NAO, amazing how things find their way up the coast, when 5 days out everyone thinks supression.

[WeatherNC]

There is a radio show tonight so we are already screwed.

Not yet, as DT and the MA gang will likely be throwing all in on the 12z Euro while ignoring every other model on the planet...

"modified Bozart quote from yesteryear"

[Brick Tamland]

Not yet, as DT and the MA gang will likely be throwing all in on the 12z Euro while ignoring every other model on the planet...

"modified Bozart quote from yesteryear"

DT said earlier today that he thought this could be a big storm for the SE. Maybe he changed his mind now, though.

[Gastonwxman]

With the chilly conditions I'm currently experiencing, I decided to go out and take a few pictures. The way this sky looks reminds me of how it looked before the January 29-30 2010 event began. Really gets you into the winter spirit once you glance at these pictures. Enjoy! By the way, looks like 46 is my official high for the day. Take note that you have to click "Previous" since it decided to upload them in reverse.

http://s715.photobuc...nt=IMG_3421.jpg

[burgertime]

Not yet, as DT and the MA gang will likely be throwing all in on the 12z Euro while ignoring every other model on the planet...

"modified Bozart quote from yesteryear"

They got spoiled on the creep north last year, which would mean based on the 12z Euro that clipper ends up in Quebec.

[NCBlizzard]

Gotta love this weather. Cloudy and 46 degrees

[WeatherNC]

18z NAM continues the lee side monsoon, Robert, you look to be right on that fine line. Good luck, and based on the american guidance leading up to this, you should be over 1", maybe 2" and that would be one of the better RN events out there in awhile.

[eyewall]

18z NAM continues the lee side monsoon, Robert, you look to be right on that fine line. Good luck, and based on the american guidance leading up to this, you should be over 1", maybe 2" and that would be one of the better RN events out there in awhile.

RAH was highlighting this as well along and west of the triple point.

[burgertime]

So now the questions is how badly will the NAM over perform with this rain event?

[strongwxnc]

Come on man, you know you are hooked like everyone else...

My GF keeps asking about the winter and when I think the first snow will be. I keep saying something along the lines of, "we had the perfect setup last year and you saw how that turned out. This year it's a terrible setup so I am not enthusiastic. Don't expect me to be on the PC much checking out the weather". Yet today I jumped right into the frying pan! It's gotta be our time at some point. While I honestly don't expect much next week I am extremely excited to see what happens.

Turn around radio show??

There is a radio show tonight so we are already screwed.

Bring it. I live 20 miles west of Robert...

18z NAM continues the lee side monsoon, Robert, you look to be right on that fine line. Good luck, and based on the american guidance leading up to this, you should be over 1", maybe 2" and that would be one of the better RN events out there in awhile.

[WeatherNC]

So now the questions is how badly will the NAM over perform with this rain event?

Normally I would cut those totals in half leading up to a heavy QPF event this time of year, but given the amounts the other guidance is spitting out, as well as the HPC forecasts, it makes sense. Considering the strength of this trough and where it goes neg tilt, that really bodes well for the lee side of the Apps as a weak wave traverses the front, maybe you too in Charlotte to a lesser extent. And given the temp diff between the western foothills and central part of the state, the atmosphere is primed to really dump the RN.

@ eyewall, 12z hires WRF showing a couple discrete cells firing ahead of the front 9z Wednesday....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/model_l.shtml

[Lookout]

With the chilly conditions I'm currently experiencing, I decided to go out and take a few pictures. The way this sky looks reminds me of how it looked before the January 29-30 2010 event began. Really gets you into the winter spirit once you glance at these pictures. Enjoy! By the way, looks like 46 is my official high for the day. Take note that you have to click "Previous" since it decided to upload them in reverse.

http://s715.photobuc...nt=IMG_3421.jpg

Yeah there has been a real winter look to the sky today. Combined that with the stiff and cold northeast wind, man...it really has made me crave a winter storm.

Looking forward to this rain though, I need it here since I didn't get much with the last system. Tonight should be a fantastic raw night. Rain, good northeast breeze, temps in the low 40s...brrr. Now if only it was about 30 instead

[FoothillsNC]

18z NAM continues the lee side monsoon, Robert, you look to be right on that fine line. Good luck, and based on the american guidance leading up to this, you should be over 1", maybe 2" and that would be one of the better RN events out there in awhile.

I have myheart on this event. I missed the big one that trained just to my west a few weeks ago with a stipe of 3" to 5" , and the one training in August along highway 74 just again to my north by 5 miles, another 4 to 5" dumper. So I've missed out on atleast 8" of rain that literally missed me by only a few miles, Haven't had anything decent since August 5th, which at first you'd think is unbelievable....but true. I'm not going to get overly excited again for here, I know the best will once again lie in the true upslope areas, but the models do have me in a good 1"+ so I'm hoping to finally get a 1" rainfall.

RAH was highlighting this as well along and west of the triple point.

Looks like a triple point low may develop over northeast Georgia tomorrow night and track right east of the Spine of the Apps in NC or into the CLT or INT region, which could make for a realy wild overnight period . Those sometimes turn into strong meso lows, with enough spin to generate twisters. The front has some serious temperature packing, about the most you'd ever see with a frontal passage, so its looking more and more likely that some severe and tornadoes will indeed be very likely in central to western NC esp. bound between 85 and 40. Of course that line would propogate eastward with the neg. tilt going on, and northward into Virginia. This is a great looking weather event all around. Hope we escape with no real damage for anyone.

[NEGa]

<br />Yeah there has been a real winter look to the sky today. Combined that with the stiff and cold northeast wind, man...it really has made me crave a winter storm.<br /><br />Looking forward to this rain though, I need it here since I didn't get much with the last system. Tonight should be a fantastic raw night. Rain, good northeast breeze, temps in the low 40s...brrr. Now if only it was about 30 instead <img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/whistle.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br />

After today i am mreally ready for a winter storm lol. Still have a strong ne wind near 20 mph, and the temps have been slowly dropping all day steady rain has started and it's 38 maybe we will actually have a cad storm this year

[FoothillsNC]

looks like the soaker is about to begin for Georgia. I agree with the others about today being the first real, Fall like day. It seems like so long ago we had a cloudy, miserable day with raw northeast winds and temps staying in the low to mid 40s all day. I'm not positive, but I think this is the "sunniest" year ever in my part of NC, and probably much of the Carolinas in general. I'd be curious to see the stats of number of hours of sun. If not, it certainly is close to the top of them, atleast here.Today is more representative of what it should be a lot in the Fall.

Check out the system off California at hour 156. Thats pretty far south. The timng of the GFS and Euro are pretty different, but you have to love such a far south system coming into Cali. Has a very el ninoish look to it. Temp is 44.3 currently. Asheville is 37, and the wetbulbs are around 38 in Gainesville so the wedge is in full effect. Going to be a nasty night for north Georgia to western Car's eventually.

[FoothillsNC]

the 18z GFS has just a cold outbreak for most of the country after tomorrows storm. No big east coast system this weekend.

[Rainforrest]

Already up to .35 looking like i could end up with 5-6 inches when all is said and done.

[FoothillsNC]

Already up to .35 looking like i could end up with 5-6 inches when all is said and done.

[Itunis]

looks like the soaker is about to begin for Georgia. I agree with the others about today being the first real, Fall like day. It seems like so long ago we had a cloudy, miserable day with raw northeast winds and temps staying in the low to mid 40s all day. I'm not positive, but I think this is the "sunniest" year ever in my part of NC, and probably much of the Carolinas in general. I'd be curious to see the stats of number of hours of sun. If not, it certainly is close to the top of them, atleast here.Today is more representative of what it should be a lot in the Fall.

Check out the system off California at hour 156. Thats pretty far south. The timng of the GFS and Euro are pretty different, but you have to love such a far south system coming into Cali. Has a very el ninoish look to it. Temp is 44.3 currently. Asheville is 37, and the wetbulbs are around 38 in Gainesville so the wedge is in full effect. Going to be a nasty night for north Georgia to western Car's eventually.

Quick question. At what elevation do you see the maximum wedge effect? I know it's shallow cold air, but Asheville seems to be doing well at 2k feet...would that be about as high as you want to be in a wedge scenario?

Down to 41 with steady light rain

[Local Yokel Wx]

Quick question. At what elevation do you see the maximum wedge effect? I know it's shallow cold air, but Asheville seems to be doing well at 2k feet...would that be about as high as you want to be in a wedge scenario?

Down to 41 with steady light rain

A follow up question... Asheville sits in a broad valley open to the eastern piedmont. Do you think the air nestles itself into this "nook" and then becomes trapped by the Great Balsams and the Black Mtns? I only ask this b/c i feel sheltered sometimes from CAD events as I sit in a mtn valley. TIA.

[FoothillsNC]

Quick question. At what elevation do you see the maximum wedge effect? I know it's shallow cold air, but Asheville seems to be doing well at 2k feet...would that be about as high as you want to be in a wedge scenario?

Down to 41 with steady light rain

in this one, the insitu-wedge is strongest where the morning got off to a cold start and the temps never rebounded today much, plus the northeast winds are still banking along the chain, Actually Ga is probably the coldest, right from Gainesville area to Asheville. There was a high in Virginia earlier today feeding in the low level cold. The wedge is usually shown from 850 mb and down. Heres some NAM obs from the 18z. (850, 900, 950) The lower down you go, the more it shows.