November 2010

[WidreMann]

NWS has rain totals of 1-2" or so for the event, despite none of the American models showing anything near that. I wonder what they see that the models don't.

[DaculaWeather]

Not sure what map you're looking at but this is the GFS for tomorrow

[WidreMann]

Not sure what map you're looking at but this is the GFS for tomorrow

Yeah, notice how it has no precip over me.

[DaculaWeather]

Didn't notice because I don't know where you are!

[Local Yokel Wx]

Yeah, notice how it has no precip over me.

Where is your location? Place it inside your profile so we can know where you hail from.

[superjames1992]

hahaha my eyes went wide...I was like, "What in the heck is he seeing to make such a statement and be so sure of it?!"...funny. 8-10 for RDU during exams = priceless for me. Then again, I don't really want to cram for them and have them postponed, so it's love/hate right now as far as seeing wintry wx.

I just can't wait until we get closer and see which mets/forecasters agree and which disagree on a the storm potential...also I want to see some call maps in the SE for once! But as everyone says, the euro must agree more than once!

I want the snow, but I'd rather exams not be delayed. I already have an exam on the 15th and 16th, so I don't want those exams pushed back to the next week.

But when it comes down to it, BRING IT ON!!! Let it snow!

I've been pretty out of it over Thanksgiving Break as far as keeping track of the models and such, so this is the first I've seen the storm show up on the models.

And could DT ever be more bold?

THIS COULD BE THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM EVER FOR LOWER MID ATLANTIC

[WidreMann]

Have we learned nothing, folks? It's on the 10-day Euro at best. Nothing is going to happen. In all likelihood, we'll be seeing partly cloudy and chilly.

[Wow]

Have we learned nothing, folks? It's on the 10-day Euro at best. Nothing is going to happen. In all likelihood, we'll be seeing partly cloudy and chilly.

We weenies have to talk about something!

[WidreMann]

We weenies have to talk about something!

Talk about next winter, when it might actually snow. It's a strong la nina this year. We have a snowball's chance in, well, Chapel Hill of it snowing in any non-trivial amount around these parts.

[GaStorm]

Talk about next winter, when it might actually snow. It's a strong la nina this year. We have a snowball's chance in, well, Chapel Hill of it snowing in any non-trivial amount around these parts.

Strong nina doesn't always equal no snow as Larry has shown in his stats. Although if we are to get any winter weather December is usually the best time in a nina I would imagine.

[NEGa]

40.1 with light rain and drizzle, boy it sure does feel cold

[rduwx]

Talk about next winter, when it might actually snow. It's a strong la nina this year. We have a snowball's chance in, well, Chapel Hill of it snowing in any non-trivial amount around these parts.

I'm actually surprised to see you think it might snow next year in Chapel Hill. I think that's the 1st positive thing I've heard you say in 6 years. Of course I'm just giving you a hard time. It wouldn't be winter w/out Widre.

[phil882]

The totals are progged to really go down quickly once you get east of CLT, because the trough begins to speed up gaining momentum as it crosses the mountains. The GFS has surface temps already down to 32 along I-85 from about GSO to Gastonia to near Gainesville by 7 pm Wednesday, so you know a cold night is in store.

Good Map! My thoughts are identical in expecting those favored areas right along the southeastern facing slopes to receive quite a bit of precipitation. I am a little bit skeptical of what the gfs is showing before the main area of precipitation arrives with the cold front. Isentropic lift can be impressive, but I doubt it amounts to more than an inch like the gfs is suggesting in WNC. Perhaps for the very best upslope areas that are orthogonal to the surface wind flow can approach these totals, but I'd say the bulk of the heavy precipitation will be arriving during the day Tuesday.

[Tyler Penland]

41.7 whole degrees here. With the rain/drizzle its quite chilly.

[WeatherNC]

12z ECMWF has what looks to be a blitzing SN-storm for portions of NC, up into VA on Sunday. Maybe one with access to the pay sites could fill us in on QPF and the in between panels. This is from Allan's site at 144hrs:

[BullCityWx]

Only problem with that euro storm is how warm temps are at the sfc

[Local Yokel Wx]

41F with light drizzle. Man im glad to be back in fireplace wx!

[RevDodd]

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner....ow-the-extended

Interesting ... and my wife says December snows weren't that unusual in NC when she was growing up. Had one the week of her birthday (early December) and one the week after in her childhood. Of course, she doesn't know which year.

It's going to be a welcome annoyance to be watching the models this early.

[WeatherNC]

Only problem with that euro storm is how warm temps are at the sfc

Yeah, and the fact the ULL is in VA. Checked the 700mb RH panels on Plymouth at 144 and 168hrs, banding sets up in WV and is off of the MA at 168. Richmond would likely do well with that setup, as may NE NC and the Tidewater area. Temps aloft are very favorable, as are the 850's. But still 6 days out, and worlds apart from the op global.

[burgertime]

Only problem with that euro storm is how warm temps are at the sfc

Yea per SV it appears that the DC area is on the cusp and nothing really for NC outside of the mountains. Temps just aren't cold enough at all for this area.

[FoothillsNC]

The 12z Euro has the first Miller B setup, which was hinted at by the GFS fora few days. Today's run develops it strongly into a vortex, which pulls down veyr cold air on the Euro, and then the timing of the southwest wave comes into big question. It has snow streaking out across Texas to the Gulf Coast even to Florida if surface temps were to be cold enough...eventually it has the northern branch completely merging with the Gulf wave, which re-energizes the surface low in the Gulf and brings precip north and west again, but by then warm advection aloft over Ga and the Carolinas would be a problem with that scenario. Either way, it looks doubtful to have that kind of cutoff on the heels of such a strong Nor'eastern....a supressed moving right along looks much more reasonable, but then again, we have a huge block in the Atlantic and strong amplification will occur, meaning upstream systems have to dive south, so basically its up in the air as usual at this point. Until it gets the first Coastal right, the remaining panels are in doubt. Still days to follow this. But, atleast the pattern change is complete now. Now, to make it snow....the hard part.

[BullCityWx]

KCLT hasn't had a major December snow since 1971 and hasn't had accumulating snowfall in December since 1996 or 97.

[BullCityWx]

Robert, I got about that same amount.

Sorry about the post dissapearing, still working out some kinks.

[GaffneyPeach]

Dear Alaska even though it is -21 outside right now and there will only be 5 hours of daylight today and when I step outside I sink in snow half way up my leg I am still loving it here!!

...from a friend who is stationed in Alaska. She just posted this and, well, I had to share.

[WeatherNC]

One would think there would be at-least a couple members of the GFS ens hinting at, or showing something similar to what the 12z EC is showing, but nope. There is support however, for a cutoff in or near TX next week with 5 out of the 11 members on Allan's site showing that, and a couple more hinting at it. At-least we look to be heading into an active pattern with potential, starting with some +RN for those who need it, followed by a sustained cool-down, and hopefully a couple winter wx chances along the way.

[NEGa]

Interesting ... and my wife says December snows weren't that unusual in NC when she was growing up. Had one the week of her birthday (early December) and one the week after in her childhood. Of course, she doesn't know which year.

It's going to be a welcome annoyance to be watching the models this early.

sadly (since i wasnt here then) my mom and grandmom have pictures of quite a few december snowfalls in ne ga. apparently it used to be not so uncommon. now, of course, we can hardly buy a snowflake in dec., let alone get even a dusting

edited to add: looks like gps is doing their updates now. they are going to expand the ffw - hopefully we will get a nice deluge this time

[dsaur]

After a morning of clouds and a stiff n to ne wind, I'm finally getting the 3d ingredient. Nice rain falling as of 2:30. Low over night of 31, and the night before last of 32.

Guess the GFS in all it's confusion wasn't too bad from 10 or so days back. It had me with record lows and a huge big snow/sleetacane, and I actually got 3/4's of an inch of rain and later some freezing temps for two days. It is all about intrepreting with the touch of a seer T

[NEGa]

After a morning of clouds and a stiff n to ne wind, I'm finally getting the 3d ingredient. Nice rain falling as of 2:30. Low over night of 31, and the night before last of 32.

Guess the GFS in all it's confusion wasn't too bad from 10 or so days back. It had me with record lows and a huge big snow/sleetacane, and I actually got 3/4's of an inch of rain and later some freezing temps for two days. It is all about intrepreting with the touch of a seer T

lol - personally i sort of agree. i mean we didnt get frozen, but jeesh i never really expected to this early! just having the cold air actually ARRIVE is fantastic. at least it gives me some hope that the 'always 10 days away' cold is a thing of the past. and getting precip in here is also great - now we just need to get the precip in with temps a little colder to make us all happy. i think the cold was delayed from the original farther out progged time by just a day or so, which isnt all that bad all things considered. temps have gone no where so far today, and the light rain/drizzle looks to be picking up shortly as the rain is heading in

[dsaur]

lol - personally i sort of agree. i mean we didnt get frozen, but jeesh i never really expected to this early! just having the cold air actually ARRIVE is fantastic. at least it gives me some hope that the 'always 10 days away' cold is a thing of the past. and getting precip in here is also great - now we just need to get the precip in with temps a little colder to make us all happy. i think the cold was delayed from the original farther out progged time by just a day or so, which isnt all that bad all things considered. temps have gone no where so far today, and the light rain/drizzle looks to be picking up shortly as the rain is heading in

I think you'll at least see some more zrain this winter. You and Rosie might be in the cat bird seat for frozen stuff this Dec, if any occurs... and if Joe is willing to share a little T

[Itunis]

44/34 here...the wedge is holding strong. I'm always impressed with the wedge's tenacity and strength here in GA, especially in my area where there really aren't any mountains to hold the cold air in (the eastern continental divide is east of me). Very wintry feeling out there.