November 2010

[Local Yokel Wx]

37 with a heavy deck overhead. Clearing skies as I made my way west toward Aville; temp dropped to 33 in Clyde, NC.

Rainforrest, be sure to check in as your location seems prime for heavy rainfall totals.

[Amos83]

You're in the sweet spot for QPF...you and Robert...now lets hope since it's so far out it still happens and that sweet spot moves about 60 miles east

I approve of this statement..... however more importantly I hope the models keep the storm and not lose it like usual. Right now I'll take any winter weather and won't be greedy!

[DaculaWeather]

Holding pretty steady here at 42 degrees. VERY breezy with heavy cloud cover. Looks like the light rain is almost upon us (if it's reaching the ground), the temps should start to drop when it does get here, the dp is only 31.6.

My radar: http://www.daculawea...rgia_master.php

[oconeexman]

Great day in the mornin- Dr. No has spoken and all are listnin! Good to have it on our side in the long range, makes the possibilities better!!

[burgertime]

I approve of this statement..... however more importantly I hope the models keep the storm and not lose it like usual. Right now I'll take any winter weather and won't be greedy!

True that. As Matty East and others pointed out it's still pretty much fantasy land and no other models are in agreement...but it's just fun to watch and you always get excited when the Euro has one! I'm with you though I was walking the dog last night and catching that chilly breeze with the Christmas lights on houses? Just perfect!

[oconeexman]

As for the rain, GFS likely overdone showing crazy amounts, the Nam a little more conservative, either way some much needed QPF!!

GFS

NAM

[Tyler Penland]

Severe weather gonna be a threat here. FFC puts severe storms in our forecast. Not positive how much we'll actually see up this far north but it might get interesting tomorrow.

[NEGa]

its certainly a wedgie day today lol. 39 with a dewpoint of 28 and a nice ne breeze. it was very nice to 'feel' the CAD coming in this morning. looking forward to a good dousing of rain

as for any winter wx, well no comment as thats still way too far out

[oconeexman]

For all you GRlevel3 guys i need help with the best setup....much appreciated

[Rainforrest]

l

37 with a heavy deck overhead. Clearing skies as I made my way west toward Aville; temp dropped to 33 in Clyde, NC.

Rainforrest, be sure to check in as your location seems prime for heavy rainfall totals.

[/quote

will do

[Brick Tamland]

Nice to see the Euro show up with that storm 10 days out. I guess the GFS isn't the only one with the fantasy storms.

[eyewall]

I am going with 8-10 for RDU from the Euro fantasy storm... book it!

Just kidding. It is fun to see this but we all know it probably won't pan out. As for tomorrow's storm most of the SE is in a slight risk for so it will be interesting to see how that pans out. As we know SPC has busted on a few of those this year. It is always tricky with marginal instability but they seem to feel there will be enough large scale ascent to compensate for some of that.

[Jon]

I am going with 8-10 for RDU from the Euro fantasy storm... book it!

Just kidding. It is fun to see this but we all know it probably won't pan out. As for tomorrow's storm most of the SE is in a slight risk for so it will be interesting to see how that pans out. As we know SPC has busted on a few of those this year. It is always tricky with marginal instability but they seem to feel there will be enough large scale ascent to compensate for some of that.

hahaha my eyes went wide...I was like, "What in the heck is he seeing to make such a statement and be so sure of it?!"...funny. 8-10 for RDU during exams = priceless for me. Then again, I don't really want to cram for them and have them postponed, so it's love/hate right now as far as seeing wintry wx.

I just can't wait until we get closer and see which mets/forecasters agree and which disagree on a the storm potential...also I want to see some call maps in the SE for once! But as everyone says, the euro must agree more than once!

[burgertime]

hahaha my eyes went wide...I was like, "What in the heck is he seeing to make such a statement and be so sure of it?!"...funny. 8-10 for RDU during exams = priceless for me. Then again, I don't really want to cram for them and have them postponed, so it's love/hate right now as far as seeing wintry wx.

I just can't wait until we get closer and see which mets/forecasters agree and which disagree on a the storm potential...also I want to see some call maps in the SE for once! But as everyone says, the euro must agree more than once!

Here you go...

[Amos83]

Here you go...

Classic! You beat me to it Burger...... I was trying to put together a similar call map but my stupid work computer is having issues.

[lilj4425]

Poor Lookout still has the screw I see.

[burgertime]

Classic! You beat me to it Burger...... I was trying to put together a similar call map but my stupid work computer is having issues.

I made it 2 years ago I think? Ha that's why I was so quick with it. Hopefully we won't be on the edges like last winter. That was truly the winter of discontent for this area. Curious to see if GFS stays on board. Hopefully our system will be well south so it can track north by next week.

[RaleighWx]

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/severe-weather-possible-tomorrow-night-snow-the-extended

[Brick Tamland]

Well, at least we have something to watch this week. Should get interesting around here.

[Amos83]

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner....ow-the-extended

Great write up as usual! Hopefully we can keep the storm on the models and get within the 5 day range so we can start getting a little excited. Otherwise I'm going to chalk this up to just another fantasy storm that remains just out of reach. After all, like you said, major winter storms are rare in these parts during early December. I'm just happy to have cooler weather than what we have had.

[Jon]

I made it 2 years ago I think? Ha that's why I was so quick with it. Hopefully we won't be on the edges like last winter. That was truly the winter of discontent for this area. Curious to see if GFS stays on board. Hopefully our system will be well south so it can track north by next week.

haha I new you had to have had that for a while, didn't see it last year...very funny, saving it to use for ammo later for sure! (I'll give you credit)...should've known better than to ask to see a call map. Gotta love the satire maps that come out this time of year.

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner....ow-the-extended

I figured you were waiting for the euro, nice choice. Thanks for the write up! Big wintry wx storms at RDU in Dec is indeed rare, but to say they'll never happen again is ridiculous. They will, maybe this year will be there year. Very historic if it does, and we'd all be very happy to follow it.

[downeastnc]

...LACK OF

FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MORE FAVORABLE

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL

CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND

POSSIBLY INTO SRN VA LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR

LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR

THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WARM SECTOR FEATURING FAVORABLE

VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

Once again a overnight event with possible tornados its no wonder NC leads the nation in nighttime tornado deaths

[burgertime]

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner....ow-the-extended

Great write up.

[Brick Tamland]

I wonder how often severe weather and thunderstorms in the Dec to Feb period lead to winter weather a week later? I know it's an old wives' tale, but it does seem to happen here from time to time.

[burgertime]

GFS is just plastering us with rain..if it's correct there is going to be flooding most likely in the mountains.

[tnweathernut]

My morning discussion

http://www.examiner....ow-the-extended

As always Allan, thank you for the time to keep us informed. No matter what our board is called (eastern or american) you represent us proud here in the southeast. The first potential snow is always exciting to follow, though this is technically not my first since I did get about an inch a couple of weeks ago.

If we can get it to within a week or so it will be nice to have something to follow after our HOT as hades summer.

[FoothillsNC]

GFS is just plastering us with rain..if it's correct there is going to be flooding most likely in the mountains.

yeah its been solid with this for days. The longwave begins negative tilt in just the exact perfect spot to nail northern Ga to the escarpment of SC and NC Blue Ridge. The high in Maine stays put feeding low level northeast winds, backing with height to southeasterly and perpendicular, all the while the trough is going negative to scoop up a wall of rain. So its a duration event for them. The NAM has increased its output to match the GFS, which usually gets big Apps rain events rain from days out, so it's my favorite model in heavy App rains.We'll see if the 3" + amounts materialize, Just through 24 hours, the GFS already has a broad section in Ne Ga to west NC with over 1" before the main band arrives. The NAM is more consolidated right along the south slopes.

GFS through 24

The totals are progged to really go down quickly once you get east of CLT, because the trough begins to speed up gaining momentum as it crosses the mountains. The GFS has surface temps already down to 32 along I-85 from about GSO to Gastonia to near Gainesville by 7 pm Wednesday, so you know a cold night is in store.

[burgertime]

GFS is giving us some light snow around 180...It doesn't let anything build up though like the Euro...but it looks like it's just doing it's typical bias.

[burgertime]

The totals are progged to really go down quickly once you get east of CLT, because the trough begins to speed up gaining momentum as it crosses the mountains. The GFS has surface temps already down to 32 along I-85 from about GSO to Gastonia to near Gainesville by 7 pm Wednesday, so you know a cold night is in store.

Just one county away for you. Gotta wonder if we might see our first black ice event of the winter on Wed. night? I'm sure with all the wind as the cold comes in it will dry out pretty fast could still be interesting though.

[NEGa]

yeah its been solid with this for days. The longwave begins negative tilt in just the exact perfect spot to nail northern Ga to the escarpment of SC and NC Blue Ridge. The high in Maine stays put feeding low level northeast winds, backing with height to southeasterly and perpendicular, all the while the trough is going negative to scoop up a wall of rain. So its a duration event for them. The NAM has increased its output to match the GFS, which usually gets big Apps rain events rain from days out, so it's my favorite model in heavy App rains.We'll see if the 3" + amounts materialize, Just through 24 hours, the GFS already has a broad section in Ne Ga to west NC with over 1" before the main band arrives. The NAM is more consolidated right along the south slopes.

The totals are progged to really go down quickly once you get east of CLT, because the trough begins to speed up gaining momentum as it crosses the mountains. The GFS has surface temps already down to 32 along I-85 from about GSO to Gastonia to near Gainesville by 7 pm Wednesday, so you know a cold night is in store.

good map! i hope it verifies this time with the qpf amounts. the cold did arrive, so now if we can get some of the moisture to materialize, then i would feel much better for at least something interesting this winter. last year all the storms ways over produced. this year, so far, most have underproduced.

we really need the rain - and i could feel the wedge this morning with the ne wind and lower dewpoints. bring on winter