November 2010

[FoothillsNC]

We have a nice, steady rain event on the way, and I'm certainly looking forward to it. There's always that line of convection that could rob us in NC, but with this event, the trough holds back so long, being fed with another shortwave or two that redevelopment of rain should occur, with little or no break. This could be a very good event with over 2" from Miss to NC, I think central Ms to nw GA has the best shot at over 2" of rain, and maybe even 3" in there somewhere before it all clears out. At the end of the week, a quick cool down, and then most likely this time next week we'll be approaching record heat for several days. Then the real change as Thanksgiving approaches and a much colder period arrives. Thats how I see it working out so far. The cold potential could match the heat potential, which would fit the extremes of the Nina we're dealing with.

[Tyler Penland]

We sure could use the rain. Been dry enough here that a spark from getting shocked (static electricity) could burn the building down.

[Lee]

We have a nice, steady rain event on the way, and I'm certainly looking forward to it. There's always that line of convection that could rob us in NC, but with this event, the trough holds back so long, being fed with another shortwave or two that redevelopment of rain should occur, with little or no break. This could be a very good event with over 2" from Miss to NC, I think central Ms to nw GA has the best shot at over 2" of rain, and maybe even 3" in there somewhere before it all clears out. At the end of the week, a quick cool down, and then most likely this time next week we'll be approaching record heat for several days. Then the real change as Thanksgiving approaches and a much colder period arrives. Thats how I see it working out so far. The cold potential could match the heat potential, which would fit the extremes of the Nina we're dealing with.

Robert, you mentioned in a previous post that you thought with this type Nina there would be more than likely a major snowstorm somewhere in the SE and that you are thinking it would likely be the southern and eastern portions.

I am curious of your reasoning regarding expecting this for the furthest south and east areas. Is it based on "recent(post 1980) Nina's? Because some of the earlier strong ones featured the biggest snowstorms further west ; Apps westward. 1950-51 is a good example here as the famous great App storm pounded this area. The remainder of that winter featured several decent Ice/Snowstorms from the Apps westward. 55-56 had a couple storms as well. Nearly every winter of the 50's had a major snowstorm if you include November, as many of the early 50's Novembers had a major snowfall.

The entire 60's decade was generous regardless of enso status.

70-71 featured above normal snowfall along the western slopes with a couple major storms as well. '71-72 had a good February. The dud in the 70's was the super strong '73-74 one as it was the record least snowy in this area. 74-75 had decent Feb-March snowfalls. 75-76 was good on this side of the Apps , no "biggies" but average seasonal snowfall.

Although all strong Nina's from the 80's onward featured snowfalls all were below the norm for the most part west of the Apps(western SE).

[Weather Czar]

We have a nice, steady rain event on the way, and I'm certainly looking forward to it. There's always that line of convection that could rob us in NC, but with this event, the trough holds back so long, being fed with another shortwave or two that redevelopment of rain should occur, with little or no break. This could be a very good event with over 2" from Miss to NC, I think central Ms to nw GA has the best shot at over 2" of rain, and maybe even 3" in there somewhere before it all clears out. At the end of the week, a quick cool down, and then most likely this time next week we'll be approaching record heat for several days. Then the real change as Thanksgiving approaches and a much colder period arrives. Thats how I see it working out so far. The cold potential could match the heat potential, which would fit the extremes of the Nina we're dealing with.

Robert last nights run of the CFS showed major blocking for Dec and Jan. The NAO looks to stay negative for those two months. Nice ridge out west too.

[eyewall]

If we have to deal with record heat I hope it leads to a solid severe event just ahead of the transition to the cold.

[Brian]

If we have to deal with record heat I hope it leads to a solid severe event just ahead of the transition to the cold.

Exactly, sick of this boring weather, Summer just will not leave.

[dsaur]

I'm just glad for the roller coaster. It has been a very warm fall, but for a few dips under 30 this week. I've had a lot of relatively high temps this month, so I can believe in a counter punch from the arctic in a week or two. 10 degrees this week, and 82 in 10 days kind of winters are only half fun, but they sure beat a "mild" winter And they aren't boring. And if my sleet for Turkey Day ends up a few pellets and crashing temps like years past, at least the turkey is a lock, and the temps are right. T

[Cyclonicjunkie]

The entire 60's decade was generous regardless of enso status.

Has anyone figured out why?

[nchighcountrywx]

Nice to see the discussion for hope for month of December and hopefully January.

[strongwxnc]

You are correct. Looking forward to the next two weeks as I hope it sets up something as we head in December.

Has anyone had trouble loading Americanwx in the FF browser? It is touch and go for me. It is working now, but this morning it would not load.

Anyway, 66.5 this afternoon.

Nice to see the discussion for hope for month of December and hopefully January.

[Itunis]

67 here, I think I've fixed the issue by moving my PWS out of a low lying, sheltered area into a higher, less sheltered area (though it's still shaded).

[Brian]

Looks like a very stormy start to the week, a lot of rain which we need.

[NCSNOW]

Looks like a very stormy start to the week, a lot of rain which we need.

suprised after the summer we just had, this map doesn't look worse. I'm hopefull the cold shows up on que in 10 days. I can handle eating turkey and watching football in rain or slightly above normal temps. But cutting down a fraser fir on black friday in above normal temps doesn't get my cranks a going>

Maybe a delayed trip[ downeast along with a pine tree should be considered!

[DaculaWeather]

The latest AFD fro Atlanta had this:

HYDROLOGY...HPC QPF CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR EARLY WEEK...SUGGESTING ATOTAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LATEST 3HR AND 6 HR FFG IN THE 2 TO 3 AND3 TO 4 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...

[Brian]

The latest AFD fro Atlanta had this:

HYDROLOGY...HPC QPF CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR EARLY WEEK...SUGGESTING ATOTAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LATEST 3HR AND 6 HR FFG IN THE 2 TO 3 AND3 TO 4 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...

Wow, we are going to get wet, already looks like some convection WSW of ATL...........

[DaculaWeather]

67 here, I think I've fixed the issue by moving my PWS out of a low lying, sheltered area into a higher, less sheltered area (though it's still shaded).

I would send your data to CWOP so you can see exactly how your measurements stack up. Remember, your temp will never be exactly the same as anyone else, even in your general location.

[FoothillsNC]

When all is said and done this week, looks like all of us will get some much needed rain, but the duration is probably going to lead to the biggest totals in north Georgia/srn Apps NC/Tn stretching back southwest toward northern Lousiana. Maybe over 3" some areas, the ECM has over 4 near Lake Lanier and northeast Georgia. This type of setup is usually good for ne Alabama srn Tenn and n. Ga, with more energy coming into the central US trough and plenty of rain to start off the event ahead of the area of lift. The last wave could be a nice squall line as the surface low wraps up west of the Apps, in which case Ga to Carolinas and Virginia will have to watch that.

[jrips27]

Thanks for the update Foothills. Looking forward to a nice steady rain!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

That map looks good for the areas that need the rain. Would be nice if that trend continues through the winter.

The thing I don't get is the lack of cold air in the SE that is being shown by the models. We have a classic setup that should deliver the goods and yet the LR models show us remaining warm?? I don't buy it....... If we get the cross polar flow that is being portrayed, then we will get cold at some point. Thoughts??

[FoothillsNC]

That map looks good for the areas that need the rain. Would be nice if that trend continues through the winter.

The thing I don't get is the lack of cold air in the SE that is being shown by the models. We have a classic setup that should deliver the goods and yet the LR models show us remaining warm?? I don't buy it....... If we get the cross polar flow that is being portrayed, then we will get cold at some point. Thoughts??

the Atlantic -NAO will be doing battle with the -EPO in pacific so the flow will buckle such that zonal or southwest winds will encompass most of the East , especially the Southeast until the flow can change, which it will probably do just after Thanksgiving or near there. If we got intoa a +pna pattern, while the block is still there , say in early december, then the southeast or eastern states will have its first shot at a Winter storm of some type.

[Itunis]

Just got soaked walking the dogs by a quick shower. It caught me off guard since I didn't think things would get cranking until tomorrow morning. It's all good though, we need all the rain we can get

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Just got soaked walking the dogs by a quick shower. It caught me off guard since I didn't think things would get cranking until tomorrow morning. It's all good though, we need all the rain we can get

Probably associated with the weak cold front moving thru the area. I'ts been raining here all day

[FoothillsNC]

Just got soaked walking the dogs by a quick shower. It caught me off guard since I didn't think things would get cranking until tomorrow morning. It's all good though, we need all the rain we can get

Its a little ahead of schedule. narrow, but about to start growing pretty rapidly overnight. By morning from ATL on I-20 west and southwest will be getting soaked under steady rain it looks like. "rainy days and Mondays...."

(and Tuesdays too)

[Brian]

Thanks FoothillsNC.........I has already rained about .22 at my house tonight.

[FoothillsNC]

Thanks FoothillsNC.........I has already rained about .22 at my house tonight.

send my way.

[Brian]

I think you will, like everyone said , where did this come from, it was beautiful in Atlanta today...then got very cloudy very quick about 4...

[jrips27]

Those showers missed me to the south... Ready for the " main event " tomorrow morning! Hoping for about 2".

[Brian]

They said maybe 4...........

[jrips27]

They said maybe 4...........

Shhhhh... I always go low and hope for more!

[Brian]

XUS62 KFFC 150206 AAA

AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

855 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

.UPDATE...

RAIN CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE

TO DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. EXPECT

WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE

INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC TOWARD ATL-CSG AFT 06Z. WIDESPREAD

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED MON-MON NIGHT AS GULF

MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL SFC AIR AND THE UPPER

TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...PROVIDING DEEP SW

FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG 50-60KT LLJ IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY TUE

ACROSS THE NW HALF OF GA AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE OF THE UPPER TROUGH

LIFTS ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY. 0-2KM HELICITY VALUES ARE EXTREME IN

THIS PERIOD...NEAR 1000. NO CAPE INDICATED AT THIS TIME...BUT

INSTABILITY APPROACHING FROM AL. AM QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE THREAT

FOR AN EARLY MORNING QLCS TUE. THIS AREA ALREADY OUTLOOK FOR 5%

SEVERE AND WOULD NOT BE THE LEAST SURPRISED FOR LATER OUTLOOKS TO

INCREASE THIS THREAT. AS TUE PROGRESSES...INSTABILITY INCREASES AND

WITH LIS NEAR -3 AND CAPES NEAR 600 BY 18Z. GRANTED THE BEST SHEAR

HAS EXITED TO THE EAST...BUT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY BACK TO

THE WEST...AM CONCERNED THAT ADDITIONAL...MORE SUPERCELL

CHARACTERISTIC TYPE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE OVC

ARE OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. INDEED...THE THREAT FOR

SEVERE...BOTH TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED

SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL ALL NEED TO BE

WATCHED CAREFULLY. FINALLY...WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE THREAT

OF HEAVY RAIN. GENERAL QPF OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA

EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. WITH OVERALL

RECENT DRY WEATHER...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS WITHOUT ANY

MAJOR PROBLEMS...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED

CAREFULLY...ESPECIALLY BY TUE MORNING. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK

AND NO CHANGES BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.