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November 2010

FoothillsNC

By FoothillsNC,
in Southeastern States

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Math/Met

Math/Met

Posted
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It looks like there is potential for a mountain wave wind event on Monday night/ Tuesday in the favored areas near the mountains of northeast Tennessee, especially for areas like Camp Creek in Greene County. The models are indicating some impressive wind speeds at and below the 850 mb level that should be southeasterly (perpendicular to the mountains) and southwesterly winds above that (parallel to the mountains). These conditions could allow for the mountain waves to form. MRX also mentioned this possibility in their afternoon discussion.

It could be the first decent wind event of the season for that area. There have been some gusts in the 50 – 65mph range at Camp Creek so far this fall, but nothing special by their standards. I was there last year when the wind was gusting over 80mph. That area is particularly interesting to me because it is a lower elevation location that experience very strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts on a fairly regular basis.

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GaffneyPeach

GaffneyPeach

Posted
Posted

GSP says "Heads Up"

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND SOME INSTABILITY...THERE IS A THREATOF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ASTHE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85CORRIDOR.IN ADDITION...THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL BE UNSEASONABLYMOIST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLOODING...TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AND FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

GSP says "Heads Up"

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND SOME INSTABILITY...THERE IS A THREATOF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ASTHE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85CORRIDOR.IN ADDITION...THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL BE UNSEASONABLYMOIST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLOODING...TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AND FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR

As does RAH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING RISK OF STRONG TO

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORNING.

I hate night time severe storms...wake me up, and they're extremely dangerous. Plus if I'm sleeping I can track them!:thumbsdown:

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Theres going to be a tight gradient between the area of heavy 2" to 4" rains over the mountains and the bulk of the piedmont of the Carolinas, where only .25" to .75" is progged. I'm not sure what to expect here, usually I fall in with lower amounts, so its going to be tough once again watching Rutherford County and points west rack up another big rain, hopefully I luck out with 1" or so.

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

Posted
Posted

Theres going to be a tight gradient between the area of heavy 2" to 4" rains over the mountains and the bulk of the piedmont of the Carolinas, where only .25" to .75" is progged. I'm not sure what to expect here, usually I fall in with lower amounts, so its going to be tough once again watching Rutherford County and points west rack up another big rain, hopefully I luck out with 1" or so.

coolwx had us getting nearly 5". I could go for that. Big rains and then hopefully a snowstorm around the 9/10. Maybe.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Euro 10 day teases...

l0pps.gif

I think that map is from the 00z EURO run last night. The 12z cuts off and retrogrades the subtropical jet feature back to the west. I can't really agree with what the euro does in the long range on the 12z run, because a typical la nina pattern would tend to make the flow more progressive similar to the 00z euro run. In addition, we all know of Euro's tendency to hold back energy that is in the southwest. I don't know if this bias has been corrected, but the 12z run is a prime example of this possible bias once again rearing its ugly head.

Theres going to be a tight gradient between the area of heavy 2" to 4" rains over the mountains and the bulk of the piedmont of the Carolinas, where only .25" to .75" is progged. I'm not sure what to expect here, usually I fall in with lower amounts, so its going to be tough once again watching Rutherford County and points west rack up another big rain, hopefully I luck out with 1" or so.

I get the feeling that a lot of those really high qpf numbers are coming out of those topographically favored areas in SW NC mountains. Its really a pretty favorable pattern for pretty substantial isentropic lift since we have a departing high pressure moving offshore that should be able to provide good cross isobaric flow at the 290K isotrope (as seen below). This looks to start up tomorrow at some point after daybreak, so expect a lot of clouds and drizzle across west NC/SC. The more substantial precipitation follows as the frontal boundary moves towards the region.

rmid5k.png

The most recent 00z NAM does blanket the WNC mountains in an area of total QPF exceeding 2", but upon closer inspection, this precipitation inflation might be due to those favored areas that receive quite a bit of isentropic enhancement due to the mountains. So while those high QPF numbers might verify for the immediate upslope regions to southeasterly flow in the NC mountains, I think the vast majority will not receive much more than 2", especially those rain shadow regions in the French Broad River Valley and further east in the Piedmont. However, for those localized areas on the upslope of the Apps. there might be quite a bit of rainfall. There would be a more significant flooding threat if it weren't for the fact that things have been very dry across NC/SC in the past couple of months. In fact the 6 hour flood guidance shows that we would need rainfall in excess of 3-3.5" areawide to have a major flooding threat on our hands.

o8i5fl.png

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

The 00z definitely shifted way north on that run. Hope if the storm comes to pass it's about 300 miles south of where the GFS is depicting it with the low in NE a bit stronger and the HP in SW Wyoming a bit further NE.

As it is I'd still probably get 1-3 inchs if that run verified, which I am highly skeptical of because the GFS tends to overdo precip on the backside of systems.

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HKY18

HKY18

Posted
Posted

00z Euro has the Dec 6th to 9th threat with a nice SLP track from Mobile AL to the panhandle of FL

hr 228 sub 996 low just east of savannah, ga basically all of nc is snowing except outer banks, atl and charlotte snowing, big snow event down there

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

00z Euro has the Dec 6th to 9th threat with a nice SLP track from Mobile AL to the panhandle of FL

Yep, but check out the difference between it and the GFS and Canadian:

post-357-0-30117000-1291014135.gif

post-357-0-45683800-1291014155.gif

post-357-0-58698100-1291014178.gif

We are in a period of extreme unpredictability- the Euro ensembles have been very spread out, which makes sense given the amount of huge variability and differences

with the op models. It may be entertaining to talk about/post various model solutions in the 7-10 day time frame right now, but it is unlikely we will know about how this will all

shake out for atleast several more days. It will get quite cold over the east at some point in the next 1-2 weeks because of the strong -NAO, but beyond that you might as well consult the

tarot cards.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

00z Euro has the Dec 6th to 9th threat with a nice SLP track from Mobile AL to the panhandle of FL

I would not be the least bit suprised with a southern slider scenerio. Happens frequently in Nina when the cold shows up thanks to northern jet supressing everything and being so overbearing. Thanks for the update, its off to work.

Currently at 25 and partly cloudy. Gonna be interesting to see how quick we cloud up today. I have strong doubts we hit 50+ as Rah NWS suggest. 47 yesterday IMBY and i'd be willing to bet on mid 40's again today if clouds get in here.

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

Yes, the 0z Euro is indeed a nice winter storm from the TN Valley Tuesday into much of North Carolina Tuesday night into Wednesday. This originates from a piece of energy that will not even be to a location just south of Alaska until around Thursday this week.....obviously a way off, and I would not put any confidence in any one model solution anytime soon for this one.

0z GFS.....nice system, but rain for the Carolinas.

6z GFS....northern branch crushes the thing to oblivion.

0z Canadian weakens the disturbance as it enters the Rockies, and because of that, it sort of just gets absorbed into the eastern NA trough.

Fun to watch....since I will be out of town next week, this will probably be a blizzard of Biblical proportions.....

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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if the GFS is modeled right for this front, then the upslope (eastern side) of the Apps are going to get a pounding starting Tuesday. First, the low level winds and 850 jet (50 to 70 kt) is aimed right toward north Georgia and the western Carolinas, so upsloping rains on southeast winds will commence early, thanks to a very deep inflow off the Atlantic and the very slow moving and very deep trough. Usually, this almost always yields about an inch of rain in northeast Ga to just south of Asheville, before the event really gets going. Then through the day, the low level jet, 850 jet and lift from the slow moving , increasingly negative tilt trough will really dump the heavy rains in a wide swath,

I'd expect flash flood watches in northeast Ga to the Mtns and possibly foothills of NC and Oconee SC. The GFS does good with heavy rain events over the last couple of years, I'll overlook the 8 to 9" it (and NCEP_ gave my area a couple months back (received around a quarter inch) Classic southern Apps and east coast big rain maker.

the models have been extremely consistent with this rain event for several days, except the Euro qpf numbers have waivered some, and are lower in general, but still peg northern Ga down to ATL and north and west of 85 through NC. In the end, the western Carolinas look to rack up heaviest rains and eastern Carolinas lower on all models thanks to the timing and tilt of the trough. It has a duration event in west sections, and as the trough heads neg. tilt where it does, that ensures the Apps take on a wall of rain, and heavy rates, while the line will lift north and thin out some as it progressess into the eastern third of the Carolinas, but atleast some rain for everyone. Light rain and drizzle are already starting here, and the radar shows more developing, which should continue for the corner of NC/SC/GA upslope region, which in my opinion will be the highest totals where the 3 states come together.

Flood watches are out. I'd include Rabun county Ga and Oconee SC as well...they likely will get as much as anyone in NC.

post-38-0-15905000-1291031261.png

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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temps aren't going anywhere today and the first half of tomorrow in the damming regions. Maybe up to 40 or the low 40's, but looks like we shoot up to 60 along the 85 corridor right about the time the heavy rain gets going. I wouldn't be surprised to see areas banked right along the lee of the Apps never crack 40 around Marion to Lenoir, until the front completely passes through. Sitting at 38 now with wetbulbs of mid 30's.

post-38-0-43702200-1291036256.gif

post-38-0-50831800-1291036270.gif

post-38-0-21525600-1291036282.gif

post-38-0-14533300-1291036406.gif

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

As previously posted...0z EURO clobbers the SE with snow starting midday Tuesday into Wed afternoon. 850 mb temps and 925mb temps suggest all snow for places like Atlanta northward. QPF's for Atlanta:

12z 12/7 to18z 12/7 = <.10"

18z 12/7 to 0z 12/8 = .25" - .50"

0z 12/8 to 6z 12/8 = .25" - .50"

6z 12/8 to 12z 12/8 = .10" - .25"

12z 12/8 to 18z 12/8 = .25" - .50"

18z 12/8 to 0z 12/9 = <.10"

All that yields a range somewhere between .90" to 1.75".

Of course this is for pure entertainment purposes only being this far out.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the QPF #.

As previously posted...0z EURO clobbers the SE with snow starting midday Tuesday into Wed afternoon. 850 mb temps and 925mb temps suggest all snow for places like Atlanta northward. QPF's for Atlanta:

12z 12/7 to18z 12/7 = <.10"

18z 12/7 to 0z 12/8 = .25" - .50"

0z 12/8 to 6z 12/8 = .25" - .50"

6z 12/8 to 12z 12/8 = .10" - .25"

12z 12/8 to 18z 12/8 = .25" - .50"

18z 12/8 to 0z 12/9 = <.10"

All that yields a range somewhere between .90" to 1.75".

Of course this is for pure entertainment purposes only being this far out.

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