strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Nice and cool at 46.5 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Fwiw and of no surprise at all since this is way out in fantasytimeland, what the 0Z Euro giveth, the 12Z Euro taketh away. No Miller A snowstorm on 12/7 on the 12Z run. A very different scenario. Warmer and precip. hangs way back. Most likely it's bias of holding back energy in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 From RAH TUESDAY NIGHT: TEMPERATURES... AFTER FALLING OFF SOME BY EARLY-MID EVENING... SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE VERY STRONG AND TROPOSPHERIC-DEEP ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION... OWING TO THE STRENGTH AND COUPLING OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT... MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE WEST... WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND A THREAT OF SEVERE DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME IN THE TRIAD TO 09-12Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW ALOFT -- NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING FRONTAL ZONE -- SUGGESTS PRIMARILY A STRONGLY FORCED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER... THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM BULK NEAR 50 KTS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE) SUGGESTS AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY FROM EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS OR ANY PRE-CONVECTIVE LINE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY WEAK -- BUT SUFFICIENT -- INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 200-700 J/KG (A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROGGED). SPC kinda gave us a see txt on this and maybe we can squeeze a slight risk out of them by Monday night. Hopefully its better than the last slight risk we had....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 SPC kinda gave us a see txt on this and maybe we can squeeze a slight risk out of them by Monday night. Hopefully its better than the last slight risk we had....... SPC has a pretty lousy record this year on the slights LOL. We shall see but as it gets closer it may be justified if the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 should be an exciting weather week ahead for the Southeast. We all get a decent rain, the mountains of GA and NC to the northeast will get the most, maybe some severe in Ga to the Carolinas as well, followed by some eTn/W NC snow and then maybe the coldest air of the season for part of the Southeast. This is the storm that the models have been showing building the block south of Greenland, and that is going to be one of the key players over the next 2 weeks as it should keep northwest flow across the east, meaning pretty cold air, esp. NC northward. A disturbance arrives a few days later , like a weak clipper, maybe some Apps snow to MidAtlantic with that, and then out west the question is does the flow split temporarily? If so, really interesting time ahead for the lower Plains Tenn Valley and part of the Southeast, with overrunning into cold air. Its just a wait and see game, you really can't place any confidence on the models right now, even on big items like blocks (but I think the Greenland one is legit). It'll be nice when we get something to follow within 7 days, not 8 to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 It is nice to have something to follow. HPC still likes out chances of great rain over the next few days. IT broad will light up if we go split flow and a system comes in... Its just a wait and see game, you really can't place any confidence on the models right now, even on big items like blocks (but I think the Greenland one is legit). It'll be nice when we get something to follow within 7 days, not 8 to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 thanks foothills! i hope we get some interesting wx, its been pretty dull for a while. at least i am happy that we did get a pattern change (obviously not the extreme one being depicted on the models 10 days out, but i didnt expect that anyway). at least we arent already stuck in the colds always a week away routine. it did get a fair bit colder (currently its 42 with a little filtered sun) than it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 And then there is this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 should be an exciting weather week ahead for the Southeast. We all get a decent rain, the mountains of GA and NC to the northeast will get the most, maybe some severe in Ga to the Carolinas as well, followed by some eTn/W NC snow and then maybe the coldest air of the season for part of the Southeast. This is the storm that the models have been showing building the block south of Greenland, and that is going to be one of the key players over the next 2 weeks as it should keep northwest flow across the east, meaning pretty cold air, esp. NC northward. A disturbance arrives a few days later , like a weak clipper, maybe some Apps snow to MidAtlantic with that, and then out west the question is does the flow split temporarily? If so, really interesting time ahead for the lower Plains Tenn Valley and part of the Southeast, with overrunning into cold air. Its just a wait and see game, you really can't place any confidence on the models right now, even on big items like blocks (but I think the Greenland one is legit). It'll be nice when we get something to follow within 7 days, not 8 to 10. Nice write up. Ready for some winter wx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks to me the main difference b/n the 00z and 12z euro at day 10 is the STJ vort. 00z had it coming out and 12 doesn't. I'm sure we'll see more waffles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Check out jb thread main page. Allan chimed in and atleast like the models are hinting at on and off, all the honking may become reality in 7-9 days. Time will tell. Per Allan: The threat for a winter storm for the southern plains to potentially the Deep South, Southeast, and eat coast for the 12/5-12/9 time frame has been showing up for several days now. Now we are getting this event into the day 8-10 time frame on the operational models and the GGEM, ECMWF are showing the threat. The GFS is showing its bias of overstrengthening the northern stream and probably oversupressing the system. I will write more later today on my examiner column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 And then there is this: the ensemble mean has had the 850 anamolies greatest right in that area, the Southeast. From this point on really, we're due to be below normal. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_nhbg_animation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Check out jb thread main page. Allan chimed in and atleast like the models are hinting at on and off, all the honking may become reality in 7-9 days. Time will tell. Per Allan: The threat for a winter storm for the southern plains to potentially the Deep South, Southeast, and eat coast for the 12/5-12/9 time frame has been showing up for several days now. Now we are getting this event into the day 8-10 time frame on the operational models and the GGEM, ECMWF are showing the threat. The GFS is showing its bias of overstrengthening the northern stream and probably oversupressing the system. I will write more later today on my examiner column. JB has been saying that for a couple of weeks now. Its always ten days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 the ensemble mean has had the 850 anamolies greatest right in that area, the Southeast. From this point on really, we're due to be below normal. http://www.esrl.noaa..._animation.html That is some really chilly air over our area..BRRRR!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 JB has been saying that for a couple of weeks now. Its always ten days away You sure do love some JB! haha...I'm sort of a fan, but not that big of a fan...probably would be if I saw some of his paid stuff. For some reason it sounds better coming from Allan Huffman, not sure why, maybe I'm biased to NCSU mets and not accuweather paid long range forecasters? haha Anyway, I too can't wait to follow something in under 10 days, and I think that will be happening once we get into December...I can't imagine no one in NC getting snow in the first half of the month. Sure the models are flip flopping like crazy, but at least it's showing up. This is definitely the month to cash it, so we need the "luck of the run". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 You sure do love some JB! haha...I'm sort of a fan, but not that big of a fan...probably would be if I saw some of his paid stuff. For some reason it sounds better coming from Allan Huffman, not sure why, maybe I'm biased to NCSU mets and not accuweather paid long range forecasters? haha Anyway, I too can't wait to follow something in under 10 days, and I think that will be happening once we get into December...I can't imagine no one in NC getting snow in the first half of the month. Sure the models are flip flopping like crazy, but at least it's showing up. This is definitely the month to cash it, so we need the "luck of the run". I like anybody that tells weather. He is interesting, is he right all the time no but he is one of the best long range forecasters. My company pays for site so it doesn't bother me about cost. I like Allan and the others on here as well. Funny thing is alot on here knock JB but sure do want to hear what he has to say. Now lets look forward to wintry weather so I can put some plows on the road!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Powerstroke is our JB update man. The dude has hit some good things before. Lets bring this into the 3-6 day window please. Let test AmericanWX out!!! I like anybody that tells weather. He is interesting, is he right all the time no but he is one of the best long range forecasters. My company pays for site so it doesn't bother me about cost. I like Allan and the others on here as well. Funny thing is alot on here knock JB but sure do want to hear what he has to say. Now lets look forward to wintry weather so I can put some plows on the road!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 http://www.americanw...this-point-but/ Pretty interesting conversation on northern hemisphere snowcover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Already 40o! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro 10 day teases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 What is your location? Down to 44 here already. Thanks for the tease WoW... Already 40o! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 What is your location? Shelby, NC I am usually a little colder than surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I thought you were. Cool. Shelby, NC I am usually a little colder than surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 46.2 today,cold for late November. About 13 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Already 40o! Reading 40.6o...might be more close to 42o since I live a few miles from RDU, this is just a local station down the road at my neighbor's house! http://www.wundergro...tion=KNCRALEI58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 MET mos has me at 45 for the high tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 46.2 today,cold for late November. About 13 degrees below normal. Yea for all our ripping of the post Thanksgiving cooldown/letdown the models had us in a frenzy for 7-10 days ago- only to pull the plug, things turned out slightly below normal over the weekend. Hit 23 out in the sticks last night and with the breeze today that 47 degree air was cold. Be interesting to see after perfect radiational cooling tonight, if the clouds can get in here tommorrow and prevent temps from hitting 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 45 degrees here.... Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving day holiday! Come on December!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 12z Euro sure does look interesting near the end of it's run. Question is can the cold stay around that long or can the moisture move in faster like the GFS has it? 18z looked pretty good around 200 just need that cold a tad south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yea for all our ripping of the post Thanksgiving cooldown/letdown the models had us in a frenzy for 7-10 days ago- only to pull the plug, things turned out slightly below normal over the weekend. Hit 23 out in the sticks last night and with the breeze today that 47 degree air was cold. Be interesting to see after perfect radiational cooling tonight, if the clouds can get in here tommorrow and prevent temps from hitting 50. Well I was forecasted for 52 today so that busted almost 6 degrees off. We'll see about tomorrow,forecasting 48 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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