Bozart Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Maybe tonight the skeeters will finally die.....temp already 32 and we should get upper 20's easily making htis the first "real" freeze of the season. Everytime before tonight that we hit 32 it was for a hr at best right at sunup. Believe it or not, 33.4 is as cold as it's been so far this season here in Fountain. That reading occurred way back on the 14th -- and again right this minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Heres a map of average # of days with snow/frozen precip or 1 inch of snow on ground. Sorry can't remember which it is. I'd take 15 days of 1 inch+ snow on ground for MBY it has me painted in. Anyway see how your area stacks up. I'd say in NC the northern mtns have more than 20 days and my county should be in green, not yellow. although it's close. Just to clarify, 5 is on the line separating the blue and green as opposed to the entire blue area. 10 is the line between the green and yellow areas, etc. So, for GA, the highest is ~10 in far NE GA. Alanta is near the 2-4 day range (~2 far south to ~4 far north burbs). Even so, the map #'s still look inflated if it is referring to the # of days with 1'+ snowcover. However,if the map is referring to the # of cal. days of measurable snowfall, it looks much more believable since an avg. of 2-4 cal. days of measurable (0.1"+) snow falling in the Atlanta area about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Got down to 29.9 at 3:26 AM but has been warming up since then. Looks like some nice rain coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep....pf/d13_fill.gif Serious rain we hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Fwiw (mainly entertainment right now), the 11/28 0z Euro has a classic Miller A accumulating snowstorm on Tue. 12/07 over N LA, S AR, C/N MS and into C/N AL with it heading for much of GA and the Carolina's. With the near historic -NAO block as well as very intense -AO block now in place, a very rare Dec. SE snowstorm cannot be ruled out in early Dec. since things like this have a much higher than normal chance to occur either during or soon after these kind of blocks peak. Atlanta hasn't had a 3.5"+ S/IP storm since 1917 in the month of Dec. This Euro, taken literally suggests the first one since 1917 is possible considering the 0.50-1" qpf over N LA, S AR, and into far west-central MS with 850's comfortably below 0 C and a near perfect Miller A tracking weak surface low moving from just off far S TX to ~100 miles south of LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Fwiw (mainly entertainment right now), the 11/28 0z Euro has a classic Miller A accumulating snowstorm on Tue. 12/07 over N LA, S AR, C/N MS and into C/N AL with it heading for much of GA and the Carolina's. With the near historic -NAO block as well as very intense -AO blocks now in place, a very rare Dec. SE snowstorm cannot be ruled out in early Dec. since things like this have a much higher than normal chance to occur either during or soon after these kind of blocks peak. Atlanta hasn't had a 3.5"+ S/IP storm since 1917 in the month of Dec. This Euro, taken literally suggests the first one since 1917 is possible considering the 0.50-1" qpf over N LA, S AR, and into far west-central MS with 850's comfortably below 0C *fwiw*. Looks perfect. The models have been back and forth on the block and recently started having some continuity with the strong ridging south of Greenland (think ECM lost it one run) but maybe of more importance is the Gulf of Alaska and west coast ridging which gives the effect of temporary split flow, and allows a system to undercut and take the low road out west. For several runs now there's been something out west which crosses the Great Basin and slides southeast, with now it showing it holding in tact and developing into strong overrunning...with very cold air in place all over the country. Last year, we kept losing the cold air just enough (outside the NC mountains) but so far with so much strong arctic high pressure over the heart of the continent, thats the one ingredient we really need to keep. The 1040 mb highs are lined up , thanks to a perfect duel blocking pattern and excellent timing. Theres still a lot to go wrong, bad modeling, shortwave shears out, too much cold air , not quite enough, etc...but this 10 day map sure looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I agree. The Euro is just wild looking. Both it and the GFS continue to try to spit something out of the SW - though not in the same time frame. I am guessing that this winter the cold air will not be as deep as the models show nor as long lasting. I wouldn't be surprised to see a CAD event out of this - pure speculation on my part. However, the Euro is showing such wild solutions, run-to-run, I think we'll have to listen to the mets on this one - usually do anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 24 this morning. Snow is back in the forecast from the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 25 in Frosty Land this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 27 here this morning. Looks like another cold shot after the front moves through Wednesday, and even colder air with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 18 here. Really liking the cmc and euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 29.5º here this morning. Beat yesterday by .2º lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 18 here also this morning. Very heavy frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 28 this morning very happy to wake up to RAIN (and possibly a fair amount) in the near term and something interesting in the future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Cold air, big rains this week, good potential for winter wx in the future and the Noles back in the title game!! What a week coming up...life is GOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 31.7 at sunrise but had a slight breeze that kinda stung while out feeding my pets this morning I do hope that heavy rainfall comes along as I did some yard work yesterday which required hole digging and after 2 inches there was no moisture to be found. A good rain and then some cold with a good snowfall would sure be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 28 here this morning. Long range looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Made it down to 25 here this am, growing season has officially ended according to me, as we had only flirted with a light freeze (30-32ish) up until now. I was not expecting it to get this cold, a good 3-5 degrees below the mos data and nws forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 From RAH TUESDAY NIGHT: TEMPERATURES... AFTER FALLING OFF SOME BY EARLY-MID EVENING... SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE VERY STRONG AND TROPOSPHERIC-DEEP ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION... OWING TO THE STRENGTH AND COUPLING OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT... MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE WEST... WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND A THREAT OF SEVERE DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME IN THE TRIAD TO 09-12Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW ALOFT -- NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING FRONTAL ZONE -- SUGGESTS PRIMARILY A STRONGLY FORCED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER... THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM BULK NEAR 50 KTS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE) SUGGESTS AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY FROM EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS OR ANY PRE-CONVECTIVE LINE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY WEAK -- BUT SUFFICIENT -- INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 200-700 J/KG (A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROGGED). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks perfect. The models have been back and forth on the block and recently started having some continuity with the strong ridging south of Greenland (think ECM lost it one run) but maybe of more importance is the Gulf of Alaska and west coast ridging which gives the effect of temporary split flow, and allows a system to undercut and take the low road out west. For several runs now there's been something out west which crosses the Great Basin and slides southeast, with now it showing it holding in tact and developing into strong overrunning...with very cold air in place all over the country. Last year, we kept losing the cold air just enough (outside the NC mountains) but so far with so much strong arctic high pressure over the heart of the continent, thats the one ingredient we really need to keep. The 1040 mb highs are lined up , thanks to a perfect duel blocking pattern and excellent timing. Theres still a lot to go wrong, bad modeling, shortwave shears out, too much cold air , not quite enough, etc...but this 10 day map sure looks nice. Low this morning was 32 deg Looking forward to some much needed rainfall Tues/Wed, and the next 10 day storm does look good I will be waiting patiently for this same look within 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 fwiw, I just looked at the 0Z CMC. It is similar to the Euro for 12/7, but it has the snow line ~150 miles further north. Unlike the Euro , this run suggests a lot less to very little snow in N LA as well as the central portions of MS/AL/GA/SC due to the 0C 850 line/sfc low being ~150 miles further north than the Euro. ATL-AHN are south of the sig. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Cold this morning down to 26.5 Should get another below average high today it's not warming too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 19.9 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 12z Euro is close to giving the NC piedmont it's first flakes but it's too warm at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 ^at day 7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 12z Euro is close to giving the NC piedmont it's first flakes but it's too warm at the sfc. Much more bullish than the 0z run, and quicker too. Under 168hr, and would roll the dice on temps at this point, but 850's and 500mb heights looks close. To bad it lacks continuity at this point and other model support. Betcha the ensembles are all over the place, but at-least something to watch that is not 252 hrs on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Not a single member of the 12z GFS ens agrees with the Euro in the 144-168hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Fwiw and of no surprise at all since this is way out in fantasytimeland, what the 0Z Euro giveth, the 12Z Euro taketh away. No Miller A snowstorm on 12/7 on the 12Z run. A very different scenario. Warmer and precip. hangs way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 For the Tuesday-Wed event both the GFS and NAM are picking up on some sort of wave along the front or perhaps a bit of a meso low developing in the lee of the NC mountains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 An interesting sounding for 6z Wed for my area for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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