November 2010

[FoothillsNC]

the op ECMWF is all over the place with the Greenland ridge. Here's the difference in just one twelve hour run.

00Z

12Z

[NCSNOW]

I'm getting a vibe or hunch that the northern jet stream will be so dominating(when the pacific allows) that areas south and east of the normal hot spots for snow in our region will be the ones who cash in. In going back a couple years ago we had this scenerio play out all winter and places like Houstson and Greenville ended up having above average snowfall, while areas in the northern foothills of NC for example where left cold and dry thanks to the northern jet pressing down so hard. The GFS although in fantasyland 10days, paints this picture. It makes sense when you look at how the table is starting to set up for December. I could be way off, but just a thought and something to keep in mind.

So far the carpet is being laid down for the cold to ride south on.

[Weather Czar]

the op ECMWF is all over the place with the Greenland ridge. Here's the difference in just one twelve hour run.

00Z

12Z

Big difference out west too. Nice +pna on last nights run. I will take that over a - nao any day of the week.

[BIG FROSTY]

26 in Frosty land this morning

[NCSNOW]

Heres a map of average # of days with snow/frozen precip or 1 inch of snow on ground. Sorry can't remember which it is. I'd take 15 days of 1 inch+ snow on ground for MBY it has me painted in. Anyway see how your area stacks up. I'd say in NC the northern mtns have more than 20 days and my county should be in green, not yellow. although it's close.

[Itunis]

You have to be colder than 45, I am at 35 in Midtown...

Yeah I should have restated where I was, on the AL Gulf Coast. The airport a few miles inland hit 34...we probably hit the upper 30s right on the beach.

And NCsnow, that map looks kinda weird. Just north of Charleston, SC has more snow days than ATL? And ATL certainly doesn't average 10 days with snow falling or on the ground...maybe 5 if we're lucky.

[DaculaWeather]

32.3 here in Dacula this morning.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Heres a map of average # of days with snow/frozen precip or 1 inch of snow on ground. Sorry can't remember which it is. I'd take 15 days of 1 inch+ snow on ground for MBY it has me painted in. Anyway see how your area stacks up. I'd say in NC the northern mtns have more than 20 days and my county should be in green, not yellow. although it's close.

Interesting, but I dont think its very accurate for the southern apps. As places like Mt. Leconte has WAY more than 15 days with one inch on the ground.

[FoothillsNC]

Heres a map of average # of days with snow/frozen precip or 1 inch of snow on ground. Sorry can't remember which it is. I'd take 15 days of 1 inch+ snow on ground for MBY it has me painted in. Anyway see how your area stacks up. I'd say in NC the northern mtns have more than 20 days and my county should be in green, not yellow. although it's close.

Who made that map? It looks good if its a middle school project. Some states are seriously messed up. I don't get the units either, pounds/sq ft? of snow?

[FoothillsNC]

Still on for the good rain event in the Southeast. Probably 2" or more from the Ga mtns into western NC and up the Midatlantic. Looks like we will bring in a big rain event just in time to save November from being extremely dry for some of us, esp. the Carolnas that are very dry. Most likely these amounts are overdone in the Carolinas though, the ECMWF is lower.

[BIG FROSTY]

Here's a little JB tidbit---

In any case much of the nation southeast of a line from Amarillo to Albany NY will have their coldest 30 day period of the winter starting now. I made a statement with the first winter forecast that at the end of December, we may be very close to where we were last year at the same time, but all this will fade the rest of the winter.

But there is some great potential in the upcoming 3-4 for much of the nation north I -40 and the threat of a storm of blockbuster category along the east coast is on the table, especially between the 5th and 15th.

[Brian]

Who made that map? It looks good if its a middle school project. Some states are seriously messed up. I don't get the units either, pounds/sq ft? of snow?

Terribly inaccurate map.

[NC_hailstorm]

27.5 this morning.

Clear skies but chilly with a little breeze rustling the trees.

[Lookout]

Terribly inaccurate map.

Yeah, we can only wish we got 10 days a year

[jburns]

Heres a map of average # of days with snow/frozen precip or 1 inch of snow on ground. Sorry can't remember which it is. I'd take 15 days of 1 inch+ snow on ground for MBY it has me painted in. Anyway see how your area stacks up. I'd say in NC the northern mtns have more than 20 days and my county should be in green, not yellow. although it's close.

Wilmington and the rest of the coast is nowhere near 10 days on average. Pretty colors though.

I am impressed with the glacier having moved onto western VA despite global warming. CS = Constant Snow?

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I don't get the units either, pounds/sq ft? of snow?

I average 26,000 pounds a year on my 6 acres

[eyewall]

I don't think I have ever seen 10 days with snow/ice in a winter since I have been here.

[FoothillsNC]

if the GFS is modeled right for this front, then the upslope (eastern side) of the Apps are going to get a pounding starting Tuesday. First, the low level winds and 850 jet (50 to 70 kt) is aimed right toward north Georgia and the western Carolinas, so upsloping rains on southeast winds will commence early, thanks to a very deep inflow off the Atlantic and the very slow moving and very deep trough. Usually, this almost always yields about an inch of rain in northeast Ga to just south of Asheville, before the event really gets going. Then through the day, the low level jet, 850 jet and lift from the slow moving , increasingly negative tilt trough will really dump the heavy rains in a wide swath, that whole line moves nice and slowly (we hope) to the east to encompass the whole east coast in a wall of rain. Its really a nice sight, happened a good big last winter when we got into situations like this.

Not to mention the momentum transfer following the front for Ga and the Carolinas, quite a bit of pressure rises rapidly, so any mixing and the time of day (early Wednesday) could be gusty surface winds, also high winds ahead of the front being shown on the GFS. Looks like a very good rain event for almost everyone. The neg. tilt should atleast assure a decent rain in the Carolinas, nixing the convection-in-Ga worries that robs us a lot of times. With such a slow moving trough axis, and considering pretty long duration, I'd expect flash flood watches in northeast Ga to the Mtns and possibly foothills of NC and Oconee SC. The GFS does good with heavy rain events over the last couple of years, I'll overlook the 8 to 9" it (and NCEP_ gave my area a couple months back (received around a quarter inch) Classic southern Apps and east coast big rain maker.

[DCMetroWinston]

I'm getting a vibe or hunch that the northern jet stream will be so dominating(when the pacific allows) that areas south and east of the normal hot spots for snow in our region will be the ones who cash in. In going back a couple years ago we had this scenerio play out all winter and places like Houstson and Greenville ended up having above average snowfall, while areas in the northern foothills of NC for example where left cold and dry thanks to the northern jet pressing down so hard. The GFS although in fantasyland 10days, paints this picture. It makes sense when you look at how the table is starting to set up for December. I could be way off, but just a thought and something to keep in mind.

So far the carpet is being laid down for the cold to ride south on.

SO, are you saying that DC and the Triad are going get screwed????

[Carvers Gap]

Here's a little JB tidbit---

In any case much of the nation southeast of a line from Amarillo to Albany NY will have their coldest 30 day period of the winter starting now. I made a statement with the first winter forecast that at the end of December, we may be very close to where we were last year at the same time, but all this will fade the rest of the winter.

But there is some great potential in the upcoming 3-4 for much of the nation north I -40 and the threat of a storm of blockbuster category along the east coast is on the table, especially between the 5th and 15th.

I read JB as well - interesting for sure. But he missed badly on the end of November - very badly. I think he really doesn't want to sound like he's banging the cold drum to loudly. So, he may be pulling for his warm forecast to be substantiated. I don't know how anyone can predict more than ten days out right now. The models have been terrible. I definitely think this will be a good winter for the West. However, after reading on the SE board, I wouldn't be surprised by a strong shot of artic air after December.

[Local Yokel Wx]

if the GFS is modeled right for this front, then the upslope (eastern side) of the Apps are going to get a pounding starting Tuesday. First, the low level winds and 850 jet (50 to 70 kt) is aimed right toward north Georgia and the western Carolinas, so upsloping rains on southeast winds will commence early, thanks to a very deep inflow off the Atlantic and the very slow moving and very deep trough. Usually, this almost always yields about an inch of rain in northeast Ga to just south of Asheville, before the event really gets going. Then through the day, the low level jet, 850 jet and lift from the slow moving , increasingly negative tilt trough will really dump the heavy rains in a wide swath, that whole line moves nice and slowly (we hope) to the east to encompass the whole east coast in a wall of rain. Its really a nice sight, happened a good big last winter when we got into situations like this.

Not to mention the momentum transfer following the front for Ga and the Carolinas, quite a bit of pressure rises rapidly, so any mixing and the time of day (early Wednesday) could be gusty surface winds, also high winds ahead of the front being shown on the GFS. Looks like a very good rain event for almost everyone. The neg. tilt should atleast assure a decent rain in the Carolinas, nixing the convection-in-Ga worries that robs us a lot of times. With such a slow moving trough axis, and considering pretty long duration, I'd expect flash flood watches in northeast Ga to the Mtns and possibly foothills of NC and Oconee SC. The GFS does good with heavy rain events over the last couple of years, I'll overlook the 8 to 9" it (and NCEP_ gave my area a couple months back (received around a quarter inch) Classic southern Apps and east coast big rain maker.

Great write up. Im thinking the southern section of the county (near the escarpment) will see quite a bit of rain; perhaps above 2 - 3". Rainforrest will def need to check in during this event.

[Tyler Penland]

Our high for the day: 48.4º

Much more like nearly-december

[jrips27]

Driving back from my beach vacation Hit 84 degrees on Thursday! It was great but I'm ready for some colder weather. Currently 67 degrees where I am at in Ocala, FL. Looking forward to the cool rain on Tuesday.

[nchighcountrywx]

Very cold Saturday. Afternoon temperatures did not get above 25 on Avery County ridgelines.

[WeatherNC]

Heres a map of average # of days with snow/frozen precip or 1 inch of snow on ground. Sorry can't remember which it is. I'd take 15 days of 1 inch+ snow on ground for MBY it has me painted in. Anyway see how your area stacks up. I'd say in NC the northern mtns have more than 20 days and my county should be in green, not yellow. although it's close.

Not sure I like that as the number of days with frozen qpf on the ground can be misleading, especially in the MA and SE, as it only takes one event with frigid temps on the backside to scew the data and give one a false impression of what to expect year over year. Yearly mean is a much better tool in comparing a particular winter against previous years, i.e. I was over 300% my seasonal avg last year.

[POWERSTROKE]

I read JB as well - interesting for sure. But he missed badly on the end of November - very badly. I think he really doesn't want to sound like he's banging the cold drum to loudly. So, he may be pulling for his warm forecast to be substantiated. I don't know how anyone can predict more than ten days out right now. The models have been terrible. I definitely think this will be a good winter for the West. However, after reading on the SE board, I wouldn't be surprised by a strong shot of artic air after December.

he is pretty good on long range. I think we will have spells of some cold air after December but believe it will be a mild winter. I hope we get like last year as I have truck that need to plow or I will take ice since I just bought a bucket truck

[NC_hailstorm]

Up to 53.2 today.

About 6 degrees below normal.

[NCSNOW]

Who made that map? It looks good if its a middle school project. Some states are seriously messed up. I don't get the units either, pounds/sq ft? of snow?

Eyewall produced it while doing his internship at Raleigh NWS! Just kidding eyewall, actually I had it with tons of other junk in a miscellanous weather folder. I was digging for a seasonal snowfall total map earlier today for 2007 and 2008 when I came across it. I was trying to look back and see how our region fared a couple years ago when the northern stream just supressed the dickens out of everything and the deep south and eatsern Carolinas ended up the big winners in comparison to seasonal averages. My gut is telling me the same may happen again this year. Cold will show up from time to time, but the storm track will get spressed to far south when it does , that in combination with upslope/NW snow events will cause the foothill regions and probably MBY alot of insult to injury this winter.

[FoothillsNC]

Eyewall produced it while doing his internship at Raleigh NWS! Just kidding eyewall, actually I had it with tons of other junk in a miscellanous weather folder. I was digging for a seasonal snowfall total map earlier today for 2007 and 2008 when I came across it. I was trying to look back and see how our region fared a couple years ago when the northern stream just supressed the dickens out of everything and the deep south and eatsern Carolinas ended up the big winners in comparison to seasonal averages. My gut is telling me the same may happen again this year. Cold will show up from time to time, but the storm track will get spressed to far south when it does , that in combination with upslope/NW snow events will cause the foothill regions and probably MBY alot of insult to injury this winter.

so you're saying after all the rain misses, the snow will skip me too? You may be right on the snow chances. Its a crapshoot in the South, one event with the right timing is all it takes to give everyone outside the mountains their normal snow (or more). With the storm amplifying we're seeing, I'd bet there will be one or more storms that bring rain on the eastern side , snow on the west side of the tracks (that could easily happen west of the Apps), or occur in Ga/SC when a system develops right along the southeast coast, missing western sections. The long range still looks good, but the models are so wishy washy they're not to be trusted. Most likely though, we'll finally get the block to truly develop and then have to wait and find out the new biases of the models when that happens....and use our wits as to what happened in the past with blocks like this. No two items are exactly the same but I see some similarities to March 1960 with the 5H and surface portrayed ECMWF, too bad thats likely to change next run.

[downeastnc]

Maybe tonight the skeeters will finally die.....temp already 32 and we should get upper 20's easily making htis the first "real" freeze of the season. Everytime before tonight that we hit 32 it was for a hr at best right at sunup.