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November 2010

FoothillsNC

By FoothillsNC,
in Southeastern States

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Psalm 148:8

Psalm 148:8

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Posting from the road...man I love 3G and being able to tether your phone to your laptop. I'm in La Grange heading south on 85. There was some heavy fog and clouds back up home with some drizzle....here the sun is breaking out and roads are dry. Happy Turkey Day everyone!

Did you wave at me when you went by? Have a safe travel day!

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NEGa

NEGa

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<br />Posting from the road...man I love 3G and being able to tether your phone to your laptop. I'm in La Grange heading south on 85. There was some heavy fog and clouds back up home with some drizzle....here the sun is breaking out and roads are dry. Happy Turkey Day everyone!<br />

I recently discovered tethering as well. It's awesome :)

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oconeexman

oconeexman

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52° and gloomy here, perfect weather for Turkey Day! Could stand it a little colder though, I'm about as ready for a pattern change as I am this 20lb bird with gravy!! Here's to some major blocking, PNA, -NAO and all that good stuff we need for winter wx in the south.

Ya'll have a good Thanksgiving!!:thumbsup:

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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12Z gfs unloads on us. First we get a good rain next week, then severe blocking and the motherlode pours south. It's overdone I'm sure. Which may be a good thing, and allow shortwaves to be further north than shown, near the Gulf coast with overunning in the Southeast. But first thing lets get a real rain event in here next week.

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

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I recently discovered tethering as well. It's awesome :)

Check with your phone carrier before you go down this road. Some carriers do not allow tethering without an additional charge. I'm certainly not an expert, but I did have this conversation with the folks at Sprint last year and they said my data plan is not substanitial enough to cover tethering and the high volumes of data you get through your PC vs. a normal phone.

58 and pouring up here in Cincinnati for Turkey Day. Waiting on some flakes and ice tonight. You guys keep working over Goofy and get us a storm in the SE for early December please! So far so good! :thumbsup:

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november rain

november rain

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12Z gfs unloads on us. First we get a good rain next week, then severe blocking and the motherlode pours south. It's overdone I'm sure. Which may be a good thing, and allow shortwaves to be further north than shown, near the Gulf coast with overunning in the Southeast. But first thing lets get a real rain event in here next week.

I  am with you 100% on getting a good rain event in here next week.  

Bring it on, and hoping for the mother lode to appear for Christmas week too. :thumbsup:  

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phil882

phil882

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12Z gfs unloads on us. First we get a good rain next week, then severe blocking and the motherlode pours south. It's overdone I'm sure. Which may be a good thing, and allow shortwaves to be further north than shown, near the Gulf coast with overunning in the Southeast. But first thing lets get a real rain event in here next week.

Yea the event next week is looking nice, and as long as we can get that upper lobe of vorticity to swing down and turn the trough negatively tilted, we should have no problem getting plenty of gulf moisture. The system that will move through tonight and tomorrow won't be as fortunate since the upper level impulse is stuck way up in Canada, and the positively tilted trough will simply dampen out as it loses its vorticity, and the convection will fall apart as it approaches the NC mountains and upstate SC.

I'm not as optimistic as you on the cold chances in the long range, since we have already seen a couple of times gfs advertising quite a cold snap, only to become much more progressive as we get closer to the event. Thats sort of the theme for La Nina, since the polar jet is so strong, its like a fire-hose that keeps any deep trough or ridge from being in place for too long. The -NAO and -AO might help to slow this progression down, but in the face of a strong La Nina, I think its going to be a losing battle more times than not. It doesn't mean we are doomed to a warm pattern... but it will be hard to get any long term cold like we saw for the majority of last winter.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Yea the event next week is looking nice, and as long as we can get that upper lobe of vorticity to swing down and turn the trough negatively tilted, we should have no problem getting plenty of gulf moisture. The system that will move through tonight and tomorrow won't be as fortunate since the upper level impulse is stuck way up in Canada, and the positively tilted trough will simply dampen out as it loses its vorticity, and the convection will fall apart as it approaches the NC mountains and upstate SC.

I'm not as optimistic as you on the cold chances in the long range, since we have already seen a couple of times gfs advertising quite a cold snap, only to become much more progressive as we get closer to the event. Thats sort of the theme for La Nina, since the polar jet is so strong, its like a fire-hose that keeps any deep trough or ridge from being in place for too long. The -NAO and -AO might help to slow this progression down, but in the face of a strong La Nina, I think its going to be a losing battle more times than not. It doesn't mean we are doomed to a warm pattern... but it will be hard to get any long term cold like we saw for the majority of last winter.

yeah I don't think we'll have anything long term as far as cold this winter, like last Winter. If the PNA ridge can ever really show up out west, thats when we'll go cold. The models both, keep having problems with developing one. Just the NAO alone probably won't cut it, atleast not early on in the Winter, it may help in the Jan/Feb time frame, if its still there. Good analogy on the firehose. Thats a good analogy for the Pacific now.

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

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KCHS and areas in the Lowcountry are above normal for 2010, however, November has had a staggering 0.04" of rain, which wouldn't even be the driest November of record here. (Trace is the driest in which KCHL downtown Charleston got 0.00" a couple of years ago)

Put things in prospective on the dramatic flip since virtually Mid August.

After the daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm regime shut down after August 22rd in KCHS - since then - From 8/23 to 11/25 or a total of 95 calendar days, only 12 days of measurable rain 0.01" or over and the story across the Southeast and basically Since October 1st, 3 days of 55 days with measurable rain over a trace.

Breakdown -

9 Days in September and there was a 6 day straight of very heavy rains which turned what looked like a record dry September into a wet one, including the same 1-2 punch that deluged KILM with over 2 feet of rain. KCHS ended with 8.12", almost all of it falling at the end of the month 7.89" from the 24th-30th, with the 25th being the only dry day in that 7 day period.

2 Days in October (storm system dumped over 3" of rain here but only .83" at the airport KCHS - only measurable rain for the entire month on the 24th-25th)

1 Day in November (on the 4th of this month) amounting to an amazing downpour of 0.04".

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Itunis

Itunis

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Check with your phone carrier before you go down this road. Some carriers do not allow tethering without an additional charge. I'm certainly not an expert, but I did have this conversation with the folks at Sprint last year and they said my data plan is not substanitial enough to cover tethering and the high volumes of data you get through your PC vs. a normal phone.

58 and pouring up here in Cincinnati for Turkey Day. Waiting on some flakes and ice tonight. You guys keep working over Goofy and get us a storm in the SE for early December please! So far so good! :thumbsup:

A lot of carriers have bandwidth caps you need to stay under, but there's no way for them to know you're tethering-I do it via a free program. I have T-Mobile and a 5GB cap so it works great for occasional tethering.

GFS is laughably cold...-15 to -18C 850s over much of the SE would imply high temps staying in the 30s for most of us with lows well into the teens. I'm liking how the raleighwx euro NAO graph is off the negative end of the chart through the end of the period though. Meanwhile, it's 80 degrees here in Gulf Shores and I'm getting ready to swim in the oceansun.gif

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John1122

John1122

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I don't trust the GFS "cold" it's still wobbling all over the place in the long range. A few days ago it was showing temps in the 30s and 40s on the first weekend in December, now it's showing temps in the 50s and 60s for that time frame with the cold a few days down the road from there.

Last year several of those cold snaps and snow storms actually verified for me. The previous two years it was constantly like this, cold/stormy extended that stayed 10-15 days out.

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NEGa

NEGa

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<br />Check with your phone carrier before you go down this road.  Some carriers do not allow tethering without an additional charge.  I'm certainly not an expert, but I did have this conversation with the folks at Sprint last year and they said my data plan is not substanitial enough to cover tethering and the high volumes of data you get through your PC vs. a normal phone.<br /><br />58 and pouring up here in Cincinnati for Turkey Day.  Waiting on some flakes and ice tonight.  You guys keep working over Goofy and get us a storm in the SE for early December please!  So far so good!  <img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/thumbsupsmileyanim.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':thumbsup:' /><br />

As long as you have a decent data plan you should be ok. Tethering isn't really something to be used all the time for internet access (i would easily download way too much in bandwidth each month lol)

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Snow haven

Snow haven

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I just dont see any cold air on the forecast all of the forecast i have looked at say highs in the upper 5's to lower 60's during the first part of December. maybe some rain but i dont see how there could be any snow/sleet or frzn rain. even at night temps are in the low to mid 40's. someone help me out to see where ya'll r gettin this info on the coldness coming please and poss. of snow. im in central NC right on SC border.

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Jon

Jon

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I just dont see any cold air on the forecast all of the forecast i have looked at say highs in the upper 5's to lower 60's during the first part of December. maybe some rain but i dont see how there could be any snow/sleet or frzn rain. even at night temps are in the low to mid 40's. someone help me out to see where ya'll r gettin this info on the coldness coming please and poss. of snow. im in central NC right on SC border.

The easiest way to answer you is to tell you we're looking at computer generated weather models, not 7-15 day forecasts on news/weather sites such as your local news station or accuweather.com/weather.com...these are not reliable forecasts of what the weather will actually be, but more of a "guesstimate", if that. By looking at and analyzing the data/images these models put out at several times during the day, we can follow long-range weather more accurately (such as cold fronts) and try to determine if and when it will happen.

http://en.wikipedia....i/Weather_model

I suggest just read the forum, observe, and you'll learn a lot about how this is done!

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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A band of extremely heavy rain just developed right overhead, and lasted about 3 minutes. It was loud enough to wake me up (tin roof). Thats only happened a handful of times since I moved to this house 7 years ago, so enjoyed that. And the main band had yet to move through. A mild 62 deg.

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