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November 2010

FoothillsNC

By FoothillsNC,
in Southeastern States

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
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Current temp of 74 degrees at the Memphis Intl Airport with a WWA for Thursday night. My what a difference 24 hours makes!

thats the setup. Its pretty easy to get the cold air in there, while theres still moisture. There maybe another shot this time next week again for mem or western Tenn and Ky, depending on how the next storm develops. There's a better than average chance that area will end up with a strong deepening low, and be just in the right spot to really get a snowfall on the left side of the storm, within the next few weeks.

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
Posted

it will never stick..........:axe: kind of stupid, if ya ask me.

MEG

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE WINTRY PRECIP

WILL FALL...BUT IT SHOULD COME DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO CREATE AT LEAST

SOME PROBLEMS ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES AND SECONDARY ROADS. SINCE

THIS IS THE FIRST WINTRY EVENT OF THE YEAR AND IT WILL BE

OCCURRING JUST BEFORE PEOPLE RUSH TO DO HOLIDAY SHOPPING THE

FOLLOWING MORNING... WILL POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE

AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIXTURE.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

This might be a beggar/chooser fall/winter

MEG

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE WINTRY PRECIP

WILL FALL...BUT IT SHOULD COME DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO CREATE AT LEAST

SOME PROBLEMS ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES AND SECONDARY ROADS. SINCE

THIS IS THE FIRST WINTRY EVENT OF THE YEAR AND IT WILL BE

OCCURRING JUST BEFORE PEOPLE RUSH TO DO HOLIDAY SHOPPING THE

FOLLOWING MORNING... WILL POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE

AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIXTURE.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

RAH is hinting at cold air fail

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE QUICKLY

ALONG AND EAST OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT

OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY... THEN APPROACH OUR

REGION MID WEEK. THE EC AND THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN FAVORED

BUT THE LATEST GFS IS NOW IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING POTENTIALLY

SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY... WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN... MUCH

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MON-TUE.

INTERESTINGLY... THE FORECAST ARCTIC AND NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATIONS

ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE LATE NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING

COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NC. MODELS CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING THIS

CHILL DOWN. HOWEVER... MODELS IN THE LA NINA WINTERS OFTEN DRIVE

ARCTIC AIR MASSES TOO DEEP INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. THE COLDEST

REGIONS TYPICALLY ARE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH

TEXAS THE WARMEST. THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN RECENTLY. JUST HOW THE

FORECAST NEGATIVE AO/NAO CAN OFFSET THE CURRENT STRONG LA NINA

DRIVEN CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE PLAY OUT LATE NEXT

WEEK FOR OUR REGION.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

Seeing all that amazing cold and snow in seattle, the northwest, and rockies has really really made me want some cold. Seeing that type of cold there while we are stuck in this warm pattern is torture.

-10 This morning here. I am forecasting -10 tonight as well. Coldest I have ever been in. I am trying to send it SE guys...Im trying

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

-10 This morning here. I am forecasting -10 tonight as well. Coldest I have ever been in. I am trying to send it SE guys...Im trying

As long as the package contains some QPF, we will take it! Below zero F is just brutal, as even with SN on the ground regular warm-ups are needed in order to preserve the extremities, and that wicked burning sensation. I spent a year in Bridgeport CA at the USMC cold weather training center, and that sucked. Sure I like SN, and it was on the ground most of the year, but prolonged exposure to that environment yielded countless very painful "thawing outs" after 5:30am runs in just pt shorts and shirt, will never understand the CO's logic on that one. Coldest I have ever been in was around -45 F, Saranac Lake NY, on my honeymoon circa late Jan 03. Absolute brutal cold, and the weather warrior I am braved it throughout the night with regular trips outside between the hours of 2 and 5 am, just to have a feel. :snowman: Enjoy Delta, sure beats Macon GA in regards to winterwx.

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

RAH is hinting at cold air fail

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE QUICKLY

ALONG AND EAST OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT

OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY... THEN APPROACH OUR

REGION MID WEEK. THE EC AND THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN FAVORED

BUT THE LATEST GFS IS NOW IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING POTENTIALLY

SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY... WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN... MUCH

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MON-TUE.

INTERESTINGLY... THE FORECAST ARCTIC AND NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATIONS

ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE LATE NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING

COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NC. MODELS CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING THIS

CHILL DOWN. HOWEVER... MODELS IN THE LA NINA WINTERS OFTEN DRIVE

ARCTIC AIR MASSES TOO DEEP INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. THE COLDEST

REGIONS TYPICALLY ARE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH

TEXAS THE WARMEST. THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN RECENTLY. JUST HOW THE

FORECAST NEGATIVE AO/NAO CAN OFFSET THE CURRENT STRONG LA NINA

DRIVEN CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE PLAY OUT LATE NEXT

WEEK FOR OUR REGION.

That was a good write-up!

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

RAH is hinting at cold air fail

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE QUICKLY

ALONG AND EAST OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT

OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY... THEN APPROACH OUR

REGION MID WEEK. THE EC AND THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN FAVORED

BUT THE LATEST GFS IS NOW IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING POTENTIALLY

SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY... WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN... MUCH

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED MON-TUE.

INTERESTINGLY... THE FORECAST ARCTIC AND NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATIONS

ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE LATE NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING

COLD TEMPERATURES FOR NC. MODELS CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING THIS

CHILL DOWN. HOWEVER... MODELS IN THE LA NINA WINTERS OFTEN DRIVE

ARCTIC AIR MASSES TOO DEEP INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. THE COLDEST

REGIONS TYPICALLY ARE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH

TEXAS THE WARMEST. THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN RECENTLY. JUST HOW THE

FORECAST NEGATIVE AO/NAO CAN OFFSET THE CURRENT STRONG LA NINA

DRIVEN CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE PLAY OUT LATE NEXT

WEEK FOR OUR REGION.

Sounds like there is still a chance to me.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Was looking back at last year's climo for KTRI, and the winter pattern did not set in until late November and early December. The winter of 09-10 definitely did not remember what happened in November, +2.3 . Who knows, the pattern now may not be the winter pattern as evidenced by last year. That said, last year's winter wasn't even rolling at this time last year. Though the writing appears to be on the wall, we are due to break the snow drought and may be due for an anomaly. La Nina should trump this winter, but we can't know that for sure. This is a new winter. It also has a -PDO which I think is going to cause issues w/ predictability. While the SE ridge certainly means business, the weather map looks to be one of very wild swings. The more that folks keep banging the drum for a warm January, the more that the less scientific side of me is pulling for an anomaly. When we saw the SE ridge in the '90s, we pretty much knew that winter was going to be warm, but that was w/ a +PDO.

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Bozart

Bozart

Posted
Posted

The LP tank out in my yard cost me $700 to fill this fall. I haven't had to tap it yet, and that's just fine with me.

Cold is expensive, and dry cold is useless and tiresome. A warm winter with one big snowstorm would be a lot better than the kind of long, brutish, thuggish, endlessly cold and muddy winter with multiple teaser snows we had last go-'round. If I want to live in Nome, I'll move there. This season is proceeding swimmingly so far. No complaints.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

I'm definitely not scrutinizing the mountainous terrain of western NC using the precip. estimates maps, its much safer to use the ground reports. The topography there and into extreme NE Georgia is too rough for the radars to get a real accurate estimation over the topography, mtns, valleys, shadows, etc. But having seen some ground reports in ne Ga and sw NC, there's definitely some truth to the high rain amounts there already this year. By the same token, once you get down the mountain and into the Upstate and right to where I am, I'm in perfect position and no topography issues at all ..the estitmates are dead on, within an inch or two. You just have to realize the resolution on these maps is crappy, but still even so, you can get some pretty good town by town estimates, and I can't tell you how many times I've travelled just a few miles to a known guage from my house , a friends, or what ever, and came back to corroborate the ground report to the estimate and be pretty much amazed at the accuracy. It's really a very useful technology, still room for improvement in the mountains for sure, and the resolution, but I'm sure it's heading that way. Trust me when I say that a stretch of land from northern Spartanburg county to southern Cleveland County has nowhere near the deficits , cumulatively, as any other spot in the Southeast, over the last 12 years. Its extreme here now. Very small, but extreme, something like 130" or more cumulatively missing, compared to the 2000 annual 30 year precip maps. I did a special study on why and exactly where this is happening, its still at Eastern US Wx I suppose. The reason, in brief, is our proximity to the mtn. chain in the now-prevalent northwest flow during Summer, which nixes convection over a small region.Just so happens, the aforementioned counties are located at just the perfect distance and angle relative to the chain to experience the maximized results of this new flow. And it sucks.

I feel your pain man. Topographical issues here in Asheville really cap our precipitation since we are pretty much surrounded by mountains at all sides.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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I feel your pain man. Topographical issues here in Asheville really cap our precipitation since we are pretty much surrounded by mountains at all sides.

I understand about Asheville, its rough there as well I know esp. in Winter some years. I was there in the late 80s to early 90s for 4 years and never really experienced a major snow, got a couple of 4" amounts. Atleast there was some decent Summer convection :lol:.

Speaking of convection the trough coming in next week is slow and goes neg. tilt , or thats what the GFS says, meaning a big rain event Finally in the Carolinas, esp those of us east of the mountains. We need one. Following it, cold air and the real beginnings of change , but after being burned by the GFS its better to go slow with this. The op. is gung ho on some blocking in Canada but the Euro is not. This next storm may be the impetus needed to change our flow in the East , or it couild still be premature. I'd be happy to first have a good rain event.

post-38-0-94576400-1290679169.gif

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