Weather Czar Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 almost a 1060 mb high in the northern Rockies. . If the models can get the Pacific right, then we'd have a shot at turning much colder, but I wouldn't count on it until its a few days out. The 6z is nice to look at with its building ridges off the west and east coast, with the floodgates in the middle of the continent opening up for a continuous invasion of cold air + storminess. All three major global models have trended colder in the longer range. We will see though, Maybe they just tried to rush the cold pattern in way too fast. I would like to see alot of snowpack in the midwest first. nice to see a ridge offf the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 All three major global models have trended colder in the longer range. We will see though, Maybe they just tried to rush the cold pattern in way too fast. I would like to see alot of snowpack in the midwest first. nice to see a ridge offf the west coast. yeah, I'm still for it turning colder, the models almost always rush it too fast though. If we keep seeing the pattern not changing in the Pacific however, then eventually I'd be skeptical of much change here...so I'd give it another week of watching for signs of change there. By about now, we should be seeing the -NAO building and closing off a ridge over Greenland, pushing west, but thats doubtful anytime soon..even if that happens, at this time of year we still need the PNA ridging out west....not so much in late Dec/Jan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I'm going home today to inform my wife that we are moving to Spokane, Washington. After reading their forcast I'm willing to give up everything and move. Anybody that wants a good daydream go check out their forcast. They are currently -5 degrees rising to a high of 8 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 glad to see someone got something from this front. I wasn't expecting anything, but a few sprinkles. Luckily my expectations weren't dashed. Now the moon has a very Charlie Brown Great Pumpkin look to it tonight, so atleast theres a little something interesting to see tonight. .03 imby I the Great Pumpkin..lol The roller coaster continues! At least they're all agreeing on some good rain next week...the only problem is I'm not trying to mow my lawn at all during the winter. That shouldn't be a problem here...I think the grass has been cut 6 times since spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 yesterday turned out to be a decent day (well to me at least). cloudy, drizzle and rain most of the day and evening. although only managed .23 it was still better than sunny and boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 yesterday turned out to be a decent day (well to me at least). cloudy, drizzle and rain most of the day and evening. although only managed .23 it was still better than sunny and boring I was just looking at the precip amounts this year and some old archived maps. The difference between your area in northeast Ga to my area and n. Spartanburg County has to be the greatest I've ever seen it this year. I think its almost double the amount from this area.Some parts of a few counties just over 60" so far, contrast with my 32" or so, and only 28" around upper Spartanburg. I realize ne Ga to sw NC is normally a very wet place though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The green dot at the southern end of Lexington Co would be mby :gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 The green dot at the southern end of Lexington Co would be mby :gun_bandana: I feel for you. Central SC is even worse than here this year. Welcome to the club! Don't worry though, you'll opt out of the club by late next Summer I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I feel for you. Central SC is even worse than here this year. Welcome to the club! Don't worry though, you'll opt out of the club by late next Summer I think. Thank you for the welcome I think.. ...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 With the blocking setup over the Atlantic I would think something would have to give. It is interesting how the models are bouncing back and forth with the cold. That is nothing new however . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 With the blocking setup over the Atlantic I would think something would have to give. It is interesting how the models are bouncing back and forth with the cold. That is nothing new however . Don't look now...cold returns 12z GFS wayyyy out at 384 Wish there was more exciting things to talk about, tired of looking at the GFS...looking forward to using the NAM for wintry purposes at some point this season, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Moderate drought is once again creeping back in here in west/central NC.The La-Nina is choking off the moisture,getting really dry around here. Only .50'' has fell here in Nov,2.9'' for the last 54 days. Right now I'd take a good soaking rain that'd be plenty exciting for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Seeing all that amazing cold and snow in seattle, the northwest, and rockies has really really made me want some cold. Seeing that type of cold there while we are stuck in this warm pattern is torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Deleted my post. Not worth the time anymore discussing it, instead I'll just say you guys are the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 It is almost cad like here today. Negate the fact that I'm in shorts and it's 59, and there is no wind to speak of; and, what breeze forms is from the nw.... if you add some fantasy to the actual drizzle I do have, it's cad time:) Got to be creative when it is spring again at Thanksgiving, and the cold air stays 10 days away. Still, if the cold air hits thrice this winter, and finds some moisture, I'll be happy to ride the warm spells..maybe T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Seeing all that amazing cold and snow in seattle, the northwest, and rockies has really really made me want some cold. Seeing that type of cold there while we are stuck in this warm pattern is torture. Yea this photo looked like what you would see after an inch in the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 62 here. Just gone donw paint/staining the porch. Major sweat today. It feels like September outside and it is really starting to get to me. However, maybe the models were trying to push the cold to soon. I know this, we are ALL waiting on the hunt. It is almost cad like here today. Negate the fact that I'm in shorts and it's 59, and there is no wind to speak of; and, what breeze forms is from the nw.... if you add some fantasy to the actual drizzle I do have, it's cad time:) Got to be creative when it is spring again at Thanksgiving, and the cold air stays 10 days away. Still, if the cold air hits thrice this winter, and finds some moisture, I'll be happy to ride the warm spells..maybe T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yea this photo looked like what you would see after an inch in the south... I'm pretty sure they only got a couple of inches. I don't think the Seattle area is any better than the south when it comes to driving in snow. I think they had a traffic nightmare a few years back after an NFL game as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Deleted my post. Not worth the time anymore discussing it, instead I'll just say you guys are the best. :wub: :wub: Yes....the SE CREW is the best :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 I wonder what the correlation could be between Seattle snow winters and say Atlanta's? I think they're may be one, just from my own rough memory. Be interesting to see if anyone does a rough idea of SEA years with above avg. snow and some Southern/Southeast site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I was just looking at the precip amounts this year and some old archived maps. The difference between your area in northeast Ga to my area and n. Spartanburg County has to be the greatest I've ever seen it this year. I think its almost double the amount from this area.Some parts of a few counties just over 60" so far, contrast with my 32" or so, and only 28" around upper Spartanburg. I realize ne Ga to sw NC is normally a very wet place though. Some of those percentage discrepancies might have a lot to do with topography influencing average precipitation totals. I see a nice percentage minimum located over Buncombe county, and that lines up really well with the annual averages for precipitation in this region. Basically we might all be suffering from the same precipitation deficit from normal, but for the areas that don't get much precipitation (like Asheville, NC) the percentages seem much lower than areas that normally do receive a lot of precipitation (like Transylvania co.) Seeing all that amazing cold and snow in seattle, the northwest, and rockies has really really made me want some cold. Seeing that type of cold there while we are stuck in this warm pattern is torture. Yea, and unfortunately this is par for the course for La Nina. In my synoptic meteorology class yesterday, we were discussing errors in the GFS 120 hr 500mb forecast from last week, and it severely underestimated the strength of the upper level trough that has dug into the northwest coast over the last 72 hours. I get the feeling this might be the model error for this winter... we won't have any shortage of fantasy cold episodes in the east, but as the models gain spacial and temporal resolution, the general trend will be towards a stronger upper level trough in the west, with a weaker upper level trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Some of those percentage discrepancies might have a lot to do with topography influencing average precipitation totals. I see a nice percentage minimum located over Buncombe county, and that lines up really well with the annual averages for precipitation in this region. Basically we might all be suffering from the same precipitation deficit from normal, but for the areas that don't get much precipitation (like Asheville, NC) the percentages seem much lower than areas that normally do receive a lot of precipitation (like Transylvania co.) I'm definitely not scrutinizing the mountainous terrain of western NC using the precip. estimates maps, its much safer to use the ground reports. The topography there and into extreme NE Georgia is too rough for the radars to get a real accurate estimation over the topography, mtns, valleys, shadows, etc. But having seen some ground reports in ne Ga and sw NC, there's definitely some truth to the high rain amounts there already this year. By the same token, once you get down the mountain and into the Upstate and right to where I am, I'm in perfect position and no topography issues at all ..the estitmates are dead on, within an inch or two. You just have to realize the resolution on these maps is crappy, but still even so, you can get some pretty good town by town estimates, and I can't tell you how many times I've travelled just a few miles to a known guage from my house , a friends, or what ever, and came back to corroborate the ground report to the estimate and be pretty much amazed at the accuracy. It's really a very useful technology, still room for improvement in the mountains for sure, and the resolution, but I'm sure it's heading that way. Trust me when I say that a stretch of land from northern Spartanburg county to southern Cleveland County has nowhere near the deficits , cumulatively, as any other spot in the Southeast, over the last 12 years. Its extreme here now. Very small, but extreme, something like 130" or more cumulatively missing, compared to the 2000 annual 30 year precip maps. I did a special study on why and exactly where this is happening, its still at Eastern US Wx I suppose. The reason, in brief, is our proximity to the mtn. chain in the now-prevalent northwest flow during Summer, which nixes convection over a small region.Just so happens, the aforementioned counties are located at just the perfect distance and angle relative to the chain to experience the maximized results of this new flow. And it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMzeiMJQrvk PAC NW driving fail from a couple of years ago since we were talking about that area of the country and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMzeiMJQrvk PAC NW driving fail from a couple of years ago since we were talking about that area of the country and snow. the people filming that caught the jackpot for sure. I wonder what went on with the fire engine after they stopped video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 the people filming that caught the jackpot for sure. I wonder what went on with the fire engine after they stopped video. My guess is they shut the street down for a time after all that to sort it all out and try to treat the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Just a classic video man... PAC NW driving fail from a couple of years ago since we were talking about that area of the country and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 My guess is they shut the street down for a time after all that to sort it all out and try to treat the road. my guess would be why break precedent. It probably slid down the hill as well. Toward the end looks like it began sliding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Looks like a WWA is out for West TN, including the Memphis area. They could have a narrow band of snow on the backside of the rain. It doesn't look like it will make it very far east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I need SNOW !!!!!!!! Just checking in to see if I could still post, It's been so boring lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 <br />Looks like a WWA is out for West TN, including the Memphis area. They could have a narrow band of snow on the backside of the rain. It doesn't look like it will make it very far east though.<br /><br /><br /><br />Isn't that kind of early to issue a wwa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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