jshetley Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Your dead on about models getting warmer. I think this will be the rule rather than the exception this winter as models seem to be too quick in breaking down the se ridge, especially in a la nina patterns. I know you probably don't want to think about this yet but the dry weather we have been having and the fact that we are entering a strong la nina winter could have bad implications on next summer. It is quite possible for much of us in the Carolinas and the Southeast will be entering spring and summer in a moderate to severe drought. The last time that happened was in 2007 and we all know what happened that summer. I agree about next summer. I'm thinking it could be really bad around here unless something changes. It could easily be as bad as 1999 and 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Cloudy skies 47 F Light SW wind Light drizzle on way to work over Balsam. BORING!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Quite frankly, I'd say 6z has at least a 75% chance of verifying given our pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It is too damn warm here! Need the pattern change ASAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Woke up to 58 degrees this morning This kinda weather in Nov sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Alot of weenies on suicide watch. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Fun times back then. I was only 13 when that happened. I remember never wanting to come inside after receiving such a large amount of accumulation. That was the night that I went out to town, got a cup of coffee, and walked around for a bit before heading back home to rest. This is probably my best memory of a snow day I have at this time. Speaking of that, Fantasy Land of the 0z GFS snowfall totals amount to this: Wow! That looks even better than yesterday, but I noticed it has pushed the storm back a couple of days from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Wow! That looks even better than yesterday, but I noticed it has pushed the storm back a couple of days from yesterday. Such is the rule with the GFS. Its fantasy storms keep on moving further and further away, always staying 250+ hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This looks good for folks west of I-77 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_192m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Just for you Brick: http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_348.shtml Grab the umbrella. Seeing how it shows rain instead of snow, it will of course verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Such is the rule with the GFS. Its fantasy storms keep on moving further and further away, always staying 250+ hours out... So is there any reason why it does this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This looks good for folks west of I-77 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_192m.gif That's a 12 hour plot. All that is prefrontal rain. You have to remember that in many cases the temperature profile is for that specific hour while the precipitation it shows falls in the hours preceding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You know it is bad when Jeremy makes this statements. However, it would be awesome!! 06Z says, up yours QC..... I'm wondering why in the world is everyone discussing 300 hour gfs plots. Talk about a waste of time and bytes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Late fall and nothing else to talk about. I'm wondering why in the world is everyone discussing 300 hour gfs plots. Talk about a waste of time and bytes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Late fall and nothing else to talk about. I think people are bored with the weather and just looking for anything exciting to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm wondering why in the world is everyone discussing 300 hour gfs plots. Talk about a waste of time and bytes. Totally agree................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It will be interesting to look back on about Dec. 10 to see how this potential, long awaited colder pattern turns out. It could give us a really good idea of what we do or don't have to look forward to this winter season. I think many took the bait that the GFS (and Euro) has been advertising about a strong early season cold spell, at that the atlantic could trump the pacific even in a strong La Nina period. It does appear though that the SE ridge is proving to be more powerful than anticipated. Maybe (hopefully), the cold will be delayed, but not denied and Dec. will start cold and stormy, but the way this pattern has materialized does not have me encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Concerned here also. Oh winter cold, where art thou? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Just had to hook up my backup Monitor after seeing the 12z GFS. If this is any indication of the Winter, at least for this area; throw away the snow shovels and build an Ark!! That strong Nina combined with an impressive -PDO is killing anything the -NAO tries to do! Just imagine how "super" warm it would be without the NAO's negating affect. That along with a boatload of rain is the only thing it's doing for here now. As HM has been warning, when that thing weakens or dies out, talk about warmth! The only thing in my mind that may alter that fact is if the PNA were to go positive during that time. As of right now, timing with the negative and positive periods of the PNA and NAO are definitely not working in our favor. Let's hope that scenario won't play out through the balance of the Winter. I can recall winters in which that was unfortunately the case. The likliehood of a +PNA/-NAO combo is not great anyway with the -PNA favored pacific pattern, as we all know. The scenario I'm hoping for would be one akin to what happened the Winter of 78-79. That year featured a -PDO/-NAO combo and no snow until January. Then from then through mid March snow fell abundantly. That year featured a mild November, cool and wet December. I remember December having several cold rain events(temp. around 40). The only drawback to a possible similar outcome this year is the enso difference; weakly neg. to neutral that year as opposed to what we have now. dec. thru Feb. '79 temp: http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/tmp/StMap-Nov2313:28:071106872558.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Light - moderate rain moving through the county. Winds are picking up; 10 -15mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Concerned here also. Oh winter cold, where art thou? Well into the future. It isn't even Thanksgiving yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I wore shorts to school today. Its mid sixties with light rain and the sun peeking out from time to time. Nice weather but I'm ready for cold. Not too hopeful for the early December time frame anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This winter is going to be known as the winter that wasn't ! JB this morning .............. A positive AO is on the way, and the excitement of blocking the next three weeks should fade, if not by Christmas then on or after the new year. So we have blocking now and temps in the 60's What will temps be when the blocking is gone 70's for Jan-Feb ? Looks like DT was right about no cold for the east coast, When the models was painting very cold after Thanksgiving !!! This is going to be a boring winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This winter is going to be known as the winter that wasn't ! JB this morning .............. A positive AO is on the way, and the excitement of blocking the next three weeks should fade, if not by Christmas then on or after the new year. So we have blocking now and temps in the 60's What will temps be when the blocking is gone 70's for Jan-Feb ? Looks like DT was right about no cold for the east coast, When the models was painting very cold after Thanksgiving !!! This is going to be a boring winter Well, if it's not going to snow, I'd rather have the warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 new Euro looks terrible in the Pacific. Of course this model has been very flimsy past a couple days as well as the GFS, especially the longer ranges where the differences get ridiculous. As expected, the "cold" front slated to cross into the Southeast late Friday is anemic...even warmer air now for NC...very little temp difference, just a windshift really. Temps really soar Sunday through next week in the Southeast. I guess the bright side is the savings on the power bill, but ski season for the Apps is going to be rough to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well, last winter we had great patterns for snow and didn't really get to cash in on it. Maybe this winter we can have a couple of good surprise storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well, last winter we had great patterns for snow and didn't really get to cash in on it. Maybe this winter we can have a couple of good surprise storms. Wrong! We did cash in on it, well most of us. I think even you finished with above average snowfall? I know you think your area should receive 100 inches a year but in reality you get like 5 or 6. Its still two days till Thanksgiving and its a step down process. Give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Wrong! We did cash in on it, well most of us. I think even you finished with above average snowfall? I know you think your area should receive 100 inches a year but in reality you get like 5 or 6. Its still two days till Thanksgiving and its a step down process. Give it some time. We had a couple nice snows. But there was so much more potential that was wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 We had a couple nice snows. But there was so much more potential that was wasted. I guess you could say the same about this year. I already have about three feet of potential. A couple nice snows, did you finish above average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Storms moving toward Atlanta, where did these come from?? ATL RADAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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