November 2010

[Brick Tamland]

I like the 06Z run

Puts me in the sweetspot..like the old days...once again a long way off but has been showing this potential for days now!

Wow! Looks like it has it coming in a little earlier now and that shows me getting 5 inches of snow! That would be a great way to start winter.

[Amos83]

My tallest to date is just over six feet. Actually tiny but ever since I got old enough to build one that big we haven't had enough snow to go bigger lol. One problem is I'm not exactly a big guy and snow gets heavy haha. But I'm lucky. Last year when we got our 4-6" snow it stuck around about 3" deep for a week in our front yard. It never gets sun during the winter (not good for the grass). I was literally outside a week later in 3 (even four in some spots) inch deep snow in 70 degrees wearing shorts and a hawaiian shirt, having a snowball fight. Good times.....

New goal for the winter: build a 7 foot tall snowman.

Hey we should have a competition divided up by region in the SE to see who can build the largest snowman this year...... think I will make a thread for it!

[jrips27]

wow 6z clobbers the western carolinas! Not a whole lot for my area but it is 276 hours out... The low needs to be further south

[Jon]

The overall pattern of something hitting the southeast early December is a good thing...Once again inside 100hrs I'll be happy, every day it seems it's weenie paradise here!

I'm looking forward to seeing and making some calls on qpf totals next month, that's where the fun starts!

Out of all the runs, I too like the 06z!

[Brick Tamland]

I'm surprised there's not more talk about the 06z. Maybe folks just don't want to get their hopes up.

[HurricaneTracker]

I'm surprised there's not more talk about the 06z. Maybe folks just don't want to get their hopes up.

It's 276 hours away. Hardly worth even giving a glancing look, let alone an in-depth discussion.

[Jon]

It's 276 hours away. Hardly worth even giving a glancing look, let alone an in-depth discussion.

True, it will definitely be a "post which model 200+ hrs out shows snow IYBY" kinda disco until after thanksgiving! But hey, it's still fun...what else are we supposed to talk about in the SE section? How pretty the leaves are?

[FallsLake]

Let’s pretend this setup actually brings the SE a winter storm. Can you imagine how much sleepless nights we’ll have watching new model runs, the agony of individual model changes (i.e. lake cutter, then back off SE coast), heartaches for people who miss out, and happiness for those who get what they want. The real intense model watching usually starts about 7 days out. That would be this weekend/early next week. You guys ready??? If it happens….

[Jon]

Also Allan updated his blog today, won't quote a large chunk because you should go there to read more...VERY good read, and yes Allan is discussing what the GFS has been showing for the SE.

"The pattern for the period 12/3-12/8 or so looks like it could offer up a wintry threat. Various runs of the GFS have shown this, and the Ensembles are all showing a disturbance in the 12/4-12/6 time frame. I am not saying it will happen, but with the strong westward based –NAO and an active Pacific jet stream ushering in disturbances, it is always possible the timing works out for one of these to stay suppressed and bring a threat of wintry precip."

~ Allan Huffman

Click here for his blog for those of you who don't have it bookmarked already!

[burgertime]

It's 276 hours away. Hardly worth even giving a glancing look, let alone an in-depth discussion.

let alone the fact that it's the 6z.

[EmersonGA]

My tallest to date is just over six feet. Actually tiny but ever since I got old enough to build one that big we haven't had enough snow to go bigger lol. One problem is I'm not exactly a big guy and snow gets heavy haha. But I'm lucky. Last year when we got our 4-6" snow it stuck around about 3" deep for a week in our front yard. It never gets sun during the winter (not good for the grass). I was literally outside a week later in 3 (even four in some spots) inch deep snow in 70 degrees wearing shorts and a hawaiian shirt, having a snowball fight. Good times.....

New goal for the winter: build a 7 foot tall snowman.

We built a good one back in 1991 or 1992. I don't remember the year but it was a very wet snow with huge flakes. It was great because most of it fell at night for maximum accumulation but enough fell during the day so we could watch it. We built one 6 or 7 feet and then yelled at the plow truck as he went by. No one wanted the roads cleared so they would have to go to work. We built another good one about a week after the blizzard of 93. We were all in shorts but there was still plenty of snow in the shady areas. We built another 6 or 7 footer but he was real muddy. Since those two we haven't had enough to do much with until this past year and I had walking pneumonia for that one.

[rduwx]

Let’s pretend this setup actually brings the SE a winter storm. Can you imagine how much sleepless nights we’ll have watching new model runs, the agony of individual model changes (i.e. lake cutter, then back off SE coast), heartaches for people who miss out, and happiness for those who get what they want. The real intense model watching usually starts about 7 days out. That would be this weekend/early next week. You guys ready??? If it happens….

Typical for this time of year. Last year it seemed like we were tracking something all winter long. Not much sleep last winter.

[NEGa]

It's 276 hours away. Hardly worth even giving a glancing look, let alone an in-depth discussion.

very very true, and it hasnt even gotten a glance from me. i have learned all too well - the models gifteth then ZAP and take it away. at least on the plus side we are now into the time of year where frozen precip can theoretically happen

[FoothillsNC]

We have 2 cold fronts passing through the Southeast this week, and if you're on the east side of the Apps, neither looks impressive in terms of precip or cold air. The runs keep getting warmer on the Fri/Sat cold front, to the point where parts of NC now don't get to 0 at 850. Pretty pathetic, for what once was shown -12 to -16. I really hate the nil prospects of rain with these fronts here. Guess we'll have to wait until the westerlies get more south and hopefully a real overrunning occurs in early December.

[Weather Czar]

We have 2 cold fronts passing through the Southeast this week, and if you're on the east side of the Apps, neither looks impressive in terms of precip or cold air. The runs keep getting warmer on the Fri/Sat cold front, to the point where parts of NC now don't get to 0 at 850. Pretty pathetic, for what once was shown -12 to -16. I really hate the nil prospects of rain with these fronts here. Guess we'll have to wait until the westerlies get more south and hopefully a real overrunning occurs in early December.

This cold front will just get us to normal or just below. Gonna take a little longer until we will feel the full effects of the -AO. Really need the heights to rise out west.

[jrips27]

The rest of the leaves are coming off the trees... Quite breezy today

[burgertime]

12z GFS was yawn worthy.

[Lee]

12z GFS looking good in long range again after last nights horrible looking run. Brings back continuous high lat. Blocking and a cold almost entire con. us with a big storm December 6.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_336s.gif

[Weather Czar]

I really hope this lakes cutter coming up next Tues would just bomb out after it passes the lakes! That would get the cold air down here.

[superjames1992]

12z GFS says "NO SNOW FOR YOU"!!! *in Soup Nazi voice*

It does act cruel, however, advertising a snow threat at 330+ hours. Unfortunately, it looks like cold chasing the moisture, not that it really matters anyways. This will probably verify as 75 degrees with a chance of showers.

[Brian]

You want to see winter look at this web cam from Grand Forks ,ND

My link

[Gastonwxman]

For those of you wanting quick access to the GFS/NAM runs, you can Google "Weather Model Viewer." Very easy program to use. It even comes with current condition readings (Wunderground) and an alert of anything affecting your area assuming it's running. I've used it several times (and still do).

[deltadog03]

The cold is coming to her for sure. This will prolly be the coldest air that I have seen. (-4F in CO was lowest in 06).

[Amos83]

The cold is coming to her for sure. This will prolly be the coldest air that I have seen. (-4F in CO was lowest in 06).

What is your temps looking like Delta?

The coldest I have experience was -12F a couple of winters ago in Indianapolis

[WxKnurd]

I've skied in -4F a couple years ago in VT and skied during blizzard-like conditions at Snowshoe. Coldest I have been in was the -15F we hit in Central Wisconsin last mid-December on our cross-country road trip to the App-Montana playoff game.

[Brian]

This weather is so boring, it is really unbelievable. The forecast just gets warmer and warmer...:gun_bandana::gun_bandana:

[Gastonwxman]

18z GFS says heavy rain storm for Dec. 4 and then what looks like a heavy rain to light snow event from late Monday to Tuesday of the next week.

http://oi56.tinypic.com/1zwjmkz.jpg

http://oi53.tinypic.com/289hfgy.jpg

http://oi54.tinypic.com/30k6elu.jpg

[lilj4425]

This weather is so boring, it is really unbelievable. The forecast just gets warmer and warmer...:gun_bandana::gun_bandana:

Are you suprised by this? Perfect golfing and biking weather.

[superjames1992]

The coldest weather I've ever experienced was -2F back when I lived in Hurricane, WV.

[HKY18]

18z GFS says heavy rain storm for Dec. 4 and then what looks like a heavy rain to light snow event from late Monday to Tuesday of the next week.

http://oi56.tinypic.com/1zwjmkz.jpg

http://oi53.tinypic.com/289hfgy.jpg

http://oi54.tinypic.com/30k6elu.jpg

well yes on this run its shows that. but right now we just want the storm to continue to show up. just way too early for specifics. but right now you gotta like the chances, for a possible major storm sometime near the beginning of december. with the possibility of a very -NAO and -AO if we could get -NAO west based it would help our chances for wintry precip. but any precip whether its rain or snow would be great.