burgertime Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Lolz this why I love you guys! Actually I was saying the euro was coming in with the NO! Like usual. Don't worry though I'll be all over the euro qpf this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Lets see if the 0z GFS even shows a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Looks like it pushed the storm back a couple days to 12/7 but at least it's still showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Looks like it pushed the storm back a couple days to 12/7 but at least it's still showing it. Where are you seeing that? Its only out to 42 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Where are you seeing that? Its only out to 42 hours? Sorry, I was talking about the GFS models shown above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Sorry, I was talking about the GFS models shown above. Oh ok gotcha. BTW the full moon tonight is beautiful for all who care! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Burgers girlfriend is a porn-star so I want videos, or at-least the link to them... Is she? I didn't think she was. It's just that he's in the porn industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Lets see if the 0z GFS even shows a storm 0z says cold air FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 0z says cold air FAIL Yeah really. Overall, the shi**iest run of any the last several days all way around! Hope it's not onto something and the 50-50 and retro block becomes realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Maybe 12/3 -12/4 will be an oppurtunity. 6z stays in lock step with the 0z. The SE Ridge is gonna be a beast this year I'm afraid, so hopefully we can make hay while the getting is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I can handle 276 out better than 384. Lets hope to cash in this December. Maybe 12/3 -12/4 will be an oppurtunity. 6z stays in lock step with the 0z. The SE Ridge is gonna be a beast this year I'm afraid, so hopefully we can make hay while the getting is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Is she? I didn't think she was. It's just that he's in the porn industry. lol...correct. She is most def, not a porn star. FTR I am out of the industry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow I would pay anything for the 6z at 264 to verify...we would probably have a foot of snow. But just to tell you how wonky that far out gets. The GFS shows all that moisture coming with very low sfc temps for this region...then with the moisture still there the sfc temps skyrocket, then they swing back down just to sky rocket again. So you know, if it can't get the temps right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow I would pay anything for the 6z at 264 to verify...we would probably have a foot of snow. But just to tell you how wonky that far out gets. The GFS shows all that moisture coming with very low sfc temps for this region...then with the moisture still there the sfc temps skyrocket, then they swing back down just to sky rocket again. So you know, if it can't get the temps right.... I was noticing that too..... the models are really struggling going out just a couple of days. It's going to be one of those winters where you cannot trust any model even in the medium range. Just take the end of this week as an example, the models had been swinging back and forth from epic cold to run of the mill cold for the past several days. My motto for this winter is not to trust anything out past 2-3 days, that goes for warm weather, cold, or snow. Hopefully we can get a pattern to lock in to help with the model madness so some degree but it looks like that wont happen anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I was noticing that too..... the models are really struggling going out just a couple of days. It's going to be one of those winters where you cannot trust any model even in the medium range. Just take the end of this week as an example, the models had been swinging back and forth from epic cold to run of the mill cold for the past several days. My motto for this winter is not to trust anything out past 2-3 days, that goes for warm weather, cold, or snow. Hopefully we can get a pattern to lock in to help with the model madness so some degree but it looks like that wont happen anytime soon. Yea this will be the year of the surprise snow...which can be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 These models are a mess....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yea this will be the year of the surprise snow...which can be a good thing. Agreed.... it probably will be one of those years where a storm fires up from nowhere. I love those because a lot of the time they are the best producing storms for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I like the 06Z run Puts me in the sweetspot..like the old days...once again a long way off but has been showing this potential for days now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yea this will be the year of the surprise snow...which can be a good thing. I must say I have seen a few metaphysical accumulations in my time...... Dang, if that 6z verified I'd be havin some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 You got that right! Maybe it is the overall setup and not so much individual storms this year? Either way, us SE folks should know better than to call anything a lock outside of a few days or 24 hrs. However, with that said, the 276 GFS storm looks killer Agreed.... it probably will be one of those years where a storm fires up from nowhere. I love those because a lot of the time they are the best producing storms for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I like the 06Z run Puts me in the sweetspot..like the old days...once again a long way off but has been showing this potential for days now! It is a thing of beauty! One can dream I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 You got that right! Maybe it is the overall setup and not so much individual storms this year? Either way, us SE folks should know better than to call anything a lock outside of a few days or 24 hrs. However, with that said, the 276 GFS storm looks killer It's like the long hot summers bake our southern brains and we forget where we live. We should never take an epic cold wave or snowstorm being shown on the models as truth outside of 24 hours. We would save ourselves a lot of heartache if we would just learn our lesson but that would be tooooo easy. Oh well, bring on the hour 246 fantasy storm! I've got my snow shover sharpened and ready..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It's like the long hot summers bake our southern brains and we forget where we live. We should never take an epic cold wave or snowstorm being shown on the models as truth outside of 24 hours. We would save ourselves a lot of heartache if we would just learn our lesson but that would be tooooo easy. Oh well, bring on the hour 246 fantasy storm! I've got my snow shover sharpened and ready..... Forget the snow shovel! haha. I'm good with being snowed in for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Forget the snow shovel! haha. I'm good with being snowed in for a week. Nah you have to have a shovel to pile up the snow to make a GIANT snowman..... that way a week after the snow and it is 70 degrees my tall pile of snow is still around to remind of the good times. Man, T-giving week and I have NO motivation to work today. Wish there was something in the near future to track to rationalize my lack of work productivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 We all need to move here>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 321 am CST Monday Nov 22 2010 Statement as of 7:23 AM CST on November 22, 2010 ... Winter Storm Warning in effect until 9 PM CST this evening... ... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon... The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect until 9 PM CST this evening. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. * A band of snow will continue to move slowly north across the area today. Snow will gradually become lighter this afternoon and then taper off during the evening. * A band of heavy snow from Lisbon to Fargo to Mahnomen will bring 6 to 8 inches of accumulation to that narrow area. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches will be possible outside of this band. * Winds will become north at 10 to 20 mph Monday afternoon and evening with some blowing and drifting snow. * Another storm system moving in for Wednesday and Thursday will bring and additional 4 to 6 inches of snow. Winds will blow at 25 mph at times and will create travel problems with reduced visibilities from blowing and drifting snow. Discussion... With a pretty active pattern winter weather concerns will be the main forecast headache for this morning. WV loop and upper air observation have a fairly strong shortwave trough currently in Wyoming...and models are all in pretty good agreement on bringing this feature into the County Warning Area today. The surface low will be well to our southeast...but there will be plenty of lift as the upper system moves across the region. The NAM and GFS are also in pretty good agreement on putting some decent 700mb frontogenesis over our southern counties today. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in pretty good agreement on dropping 3-5 inches of snow across a Valley City to Fargo to Bemidji line...and the NAM even puts in some 6 inch amounts. Not seeing too much potential for csi and the system will be fairly fast moving. However...will have to watch closely in case some banding sets up and it looks like we'll get over 6 inches. For now will keep advisory going as it is. Fortunately winds will remain in the 10 to 15 miles per hour range and blowing snow will not be too much of a problem. Snow will taper off tonight as the upper system moves off into the Great Lakes and surface high pressure arrives in the County Warning Area. There will be some brief shortwave ridging between systems on Tuesday...and the northern plains should see a dry day. However...temperatures will remain cold with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits to below zero. The next upper trough will begin to approach on Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is a lot of variation between the models as to the exact timing of the system. The GFS has been the most progressive...moving the upper low into South Dakota on Wednesday and through the County Warning Area Wednesday night. The NAM on the other hand...is much slower...keeping the upper low over South Dakota through Thursday. The European model (ecmwf) is a bit slower than the GFS...but much more progressive than the NAM...while the Gem is in between. Given the NAM is often unreliable this far out in time...and that the GFS is often a bit too progressive...will lean towards the European model (ecmwf). What this means for US is that snow will start moving into our northwestern County Warning Area late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Unlike previous systems...the surface low will deepen quite nicely near the County Warning Area and there will be some strong winds with this round of snow. At least 4 inches and blowing snow at 25 miles per hour or more look probable across the County Warning Area...with some higher amounts definitely not out of the question. There are still some differences in timing and it is still 48 hours plus out...but it looks likely for some ugly weather somewhere in the northern plains on the busiest travel day of the year. Thus...will go ahead and put out a watch for the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. && Aviation... Conditions will deteriorate this morning as bands of snow begin to move into the forecast area. Ceilings will go down to MVFR across kfar first and then spread north and eastward. Some locations could see -sn limiting visible down to a mile or two at times. Visible and ceilings will begin to recover after 06z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 LOL.... Surprised no one posted the CMC and it's weenie solution. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 54 IMBY this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 54 IMBY this morning. That's cause none of us know Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Nah you have to have a shovel to pile up the snow to make a GIANT snowman..... that way a week after the snow and it is 70 degrees my tall pile of snow is still around to remind of the good times. Man, T-giving week and I have NO motivation to work today. Wish there was something in the near future to track to rationalize my lack of work productivity. My tallest to date is just over six feet. Actually tiny but ever since I got old enough to build one that big we haven't had enough snow to go bigger lol. One problem is I'm not exactly a big guy and snow gets heavy haha. But I'm lucky. Last year when we got our 4-6" snow it stuck around about 3" deep for a week in our front yard. It never gets sun during the winter (not good for the grass). I was literally outside a week later in 3 (even four in some spots) inch deep snow in 70 degrees wearing shorts and a hawaiian shirt, having a snowball fight. Good times..... New goal for the winter: build a 7 foot tall snowman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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