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November 2010

FoothillsNC

By FoothillsNC,
in Southeastern States

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

Hard to see that storm cutting towards the lakes with such strong blocking. I could be wrong though. The AO and NAO are forecast to really tank, I would not be surprised if the storm track was farther south and east. I'm not calling for any snow, just that the blocking pattern of last winter is starting to show itself again. At least for the first half of Dec.

Looks like the euro is falling more with the gfs. The gfs has been taking the euro to the woodshed this month

I like the way you talk!!

Tell the news CZAR

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

http://www.twisterda...WIN_SURFACE.png

Here is your fantasy storm!

I'm, of course, not taking this way out in fantasytime storm even close to seriously. However, for pure fun and fwiw, note that this 6Z GFS Miller A being modeled for 12/6/2010 is virtually a carbon copy of the Miller A that produced a historic Dec. S/IP (7", which is alltime record high for Dec.) in Atlanta 12/3-6/1886. Also, that happened to be during a moderate La Nina, which is similar to what we have now. Atlanta is sooo ovedue for a major (3.5"+) S/IP in Dec. The last one was way back in 1917!! Fwiw, if the models are to be believed, the upcoming -NAO/-AO blocking is about to become uncommonly strong. Actually, the NAO has a shot at plunging to sub -3 levels on the dailies. Going back to when records started in 1950, I could find only two periods with sub -3 daily NAO's: 7/13-14/1962 and 10/20-22/2002. Lowest on record is the -3.254 of 10/21/02.

The following link is to daily NAO's going back to 1950:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.n...1.current.ascii

Here is the NAO fcast from the 11/21/10 0Z GFS ensemble. Note how the mean forecast is for it to plunge to near -3 on 11/28/10 as per the 7 day forecast:

post-882-0-19540300-1290354347.gif

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
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I'm, of course, not taking this way out in fantasytime storm even close to seriously. However, for pure fun and fwiw, note that this 6Z GFS Miller A being modeled for 12/6/2010 is virtually a carbon copy of the Miller A that produced a historic Dec. S/IP (7", which is alltime record high for Dec.) in Atlanta 12/3-6/1886. Also, that happened to be during a moderate La Nina, which is similar to what we have now. Atlanta is sooo ovedue for a major (3.5"+) S/IP in Dec. The last one was way back in 1917!! Fwiw, if the models are to be believed, the upcoming -NAO/-AO blocking is about to become uncommonly strong. Actually, the NAO has a shot at plunging to sub -3 levels on the dailies. Going back to when records started in 1950, I could find only two periods with sub -3 daily NAO's: 7/13-14/1962 and 10/20-22/2002. Lowest on record is the -3.254 of 10/21/02.

Very interesting and thanks :scooter:

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NCBlizzard

NCBlizzard

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Posted

I'm, of course, not taking this way out in fantasytime storm even close to seriously. However, for pure fun and fwiw, note that this 6Z GFS Miller A being modeled for 12/6/2010 is virtually a carbon copy of the Miller A that produced a historic Dec. S/IP (7", which is alltime record high for Dec.) in Atlanta 12/3-6/1886. Also, that happened to be during a moderate La Nina, which is similar to what we have now. Atlanta is sooo ovedue for a major (3.5"+) S/IP in Dec. The last one was way back in 1917!! Fwiw, if the models are to be believed, the upcoming -NAO/-AO blocking is about to become uncommonly strong. Actually, the NAO has a shot at plunging to sub -3 levels on the dailies. Going back to when records started in 1950, I could find only two periods with sub -3 daily NAO's: 7/13-14/1962 and 10/20-22/2002. Lowest on record is the -3.254 of 10/21/02.

That would be awesome if the -3 daily NAO values actually happened :arrowhead:

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Fwiw and mainly for entertainment, the 12Z GFS gives KATL and nearby areas ~0.30" of qpf with 850's near -2 C, implying some snow 12/3-4. Normally, I wouldn't pay much of any attention to the GFS this far out in time. However, because this is the third run to give KATL and other portions of the interior SE accumulating snow in early Dec. and because of the upcoming near historic NAO as well as very strong AO blocks, I've decided to start paying a bit more attention than normal to the model trends that far out in time since unusual SE snows have some tendency to accompany or immediately follow strong NAO/AO blocks.

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rosie

rosie

Posted
Posted

I'm, of course, not taking this way out in fantasytime storm even close to seriously. However, for pure fun and fwiw, note that this 6Z GFS Miller A being modeled for 12/6/2010 is virtually a carbon copy of the Miller A that produced a historic Dec. S/IP (7", which is alltime record high for Dec.) in Atlanta 12/3-6/1886. Also, that happened to be during a moderate La Nina, which is similar to what we have now. Atlanta is sooo ovedue for a major (3.5"+) S/IP in Dec. The last one was way back in 1917!! Fwiw, if the models are to be believed, the upcoming -NAO/-AO blocking is about to become uncommonly strong. Actually, the NAO has a shot at plunging to sub -3 levels on the dailies. Going back to when records started in 1950, I could find only two periods with sub -3 daily NAO's: 7/13-14/1962 and 10/20-22/2002. Lowest on record is the -3.254 of 10/21/02.

The following link is to daily NAO's going back to 1950:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.n...1.current.ascii

Here is the NAO fcast from the 11/21/10 0Z GFS ensemble. Note how the mean forecast is for it to plunge to near -3 on 11/28/10 as per the 7 day forecast:

post-882-0-19540300-1290354347.gif

Your knowledge and research abilities always amaze me. Thanks for the great info and i like all the rest would love to see it verify!

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Your knowledge and research abilities always amaze me. Thanks for the great info and i like all the rest would love to see it verify!

Thanks and you're welcome rosie and cyclonejunkie. I've been mostly downplaying the chance of sig. snow in N GA and nearby areas this winter due to moderate to strong La Nina climo going back to the early 1900's since only one of the last 15 mod. to strong La Nina winters have given Atlanta above average S/IP. However, I've also noted that the prior three (in the 1880's-1890's) produced big S/IP and that it only takes one to make a big winter for us. With the upcoming AO/NAO plunge, I've suddenly become much more interested in the early Dec. wx.

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

Thanks and you're welcome rosie and cyclonejunkie. I've been mostly downplaying the chance of sig. snow in N GA and nearby areas this winter due to moderate to strong La Nina climo going back to the early 1900's since only one of the last 15 mod. to strong La Nina winters have given Atlanta above average S/IP. However, I've also noted that the prior three (in the 1880's-1890's) produced big S/IP and that it only takes one to make a big winter for us. With the upcoming AO/NAO plunge, I've suddenly become much more interested in the early Dec. wx.

Thx for the info and input,:popcorn: glad to see our fantasy is there another day just shifted south a bit. Will probably disappear later this wekk and hopefully come back a week from now.:thumbsup:

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Yall remeber the Grizwalls in that Christmas movie going out to get the family tree in knee deep snow. We head up to the mtns every Black Friday and I thought it would be awesome to take the ole sled one time and pull that tree back through the snow to the truck. We'll black Friday has my attention and per Rays Weather Station, this year theres hope.

Forecast Discussion

High pressure continues to be the primary weather force in the area which will lead to another generally pleasant day. The next approaching storm system will help get south winds gradually increasing through Monday and pick up a slightly more westward component by Tuesday. Clouds will also increase with shower chances entering the picture by late Tuesday. The cold front responsible for sparking these showers will slowly push in from the Tennessee Valley and stall giving us scattered shower chances again on Wednesday.

The major weather story of the week then comes to the plate for Thursday as a powerful storm system sends a strong cold front our direction. It will spark another round of rain and likely start moving through in the afternoon and evening Thursday, there are still some questions on the exact timing but the end result remains a high confidence forecast, much colder temperatures.

Those temperatures will begin to set in by Friday and likely dip even further by Saturday. There is a reasonably good chance for at least some snowfall behind the front Thursday overnight into Friday. It is difficult to pin down accumulations or even chances of accumulations at this point, but some accumulating snowfall can't be ruled out on Black Friday. Stay tuned! :snowman:

WESTF11444.jpg

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Once again with the 384 hours out eye candy...welcome to winter! Good for your back yard, TN/GA...no good for mine...central/eastern NC...:gun_bandana:

I can't wait until the season gets on a roll and we can see something good inside 100 hours...

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