rduwx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I dont hate the gfs, its very good for getting an idea of storm potential up to about 192 hours. After 192 its verify rate is HORRIBLE. After 300 it's no better than a guess I agree...I've been watching the gfs for a lot of years and I don't ever remember seeing one of the fantasy storms after 300 hrs coming true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Back to the game..let's hope for more good model runs tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well, that can of worms went sour! Oh well....There is always a 1st time...and I'll be waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well, that can of worms went sour! Oh well....There is always a 1st time...and I'll be waiting... You're right, one of these days it might happen. Winter is just starting so we have to keep positive. It helps going into this winter not expecting a lot. So whatever I get this year I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It doesnt matter what the GFS shows until the pattern pops a consistent +PNA and -NAO...another thing to remember is the CPC numbers that people show are GFS based, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It doesnt matter what the GFS shows until the pattern pops a consistent +PNA and -NAO...another thing to remember is the CPC numbers that people show are GFS based, I think. Agree here but looking at the Euro 8-10 day mean also shows a raging -NAO and -AO with both not really showing a +PNA. Also when the CPC ensemble forecast show little spread then I think its a safe bet the signal is going to occur but obviously they dont necessarily mean brutal cold and stormy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Temp - 41* ( how do you make that degree sign thingy again ?) Wind - Calm Skies - Clear The one's that are still up, go outside for just a moment and look at the Moon. Incredible on this crisp night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 jburns, you're old. What are you doing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The weathers been a broken record down here. Since March 2nd I have had no real weather to speak of other than the deluge we got back in september. I'm really wanting to see some interesting weather over the next couple of months to try and salvage whats been a terrible year for interesting weather here in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 jburns, you're old. What are you doing up? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Agree here but looking at the Euro 8-10 day mean also shows a raging -NAO and -AO with both not really showing a +PNA. Also when the CPC ensemble forecast show little spread then I think its a safe bet the signal is going to occur but obviously they dont necessarily mean brutal cold and stormy/ Yeah, that Euro ensemble doesnt look too bad, I'm just expecting to be delayed as it seems the models always do these things too soon. Another unrelated note: Ok, I might be wrong here but..I swear I remember one of our pro mets(I'm thinking either Allan or Robert) mentioning something about the PNA being as or even more important for our area than the NAO. Does anyone else remember this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yeah, that Euro ensemble doesnt look too bad, I'm just expecting to be delayed as it seems the models always do these things too soon. Another unrelated note: Ok, I might be wrong here but..I swear I remember one of our pro mets(I'm thinking either Allan or Robert) mentioning something about the PNA being as or even more important for our area than the NAO. Does anyone else remember this?? Sounds familiar. I am no expert on teleconnections so I am no help here. I think a +PNA and -NAO together is a good combo over them both negative though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The wind down here with that cad we just had was the best I've had in years. It was howling. If it had been 35 with drizzle, it would have been like the old days..before cad went somewhere else I bet with this last one screaming in on me, the folks in favored spots in Ala. were getting that wind too. Thanks, Rosie I'm sure the one way out at the end of the Goofy will verify...I'm off to get my sled ready. I always have to remind myself when I get too dismissive about it, that the blizzard was once a fantasy storm...and it verified, lol. T http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2010/11/21/06/GFS_3_2010112106_F384_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Here is your fantasy storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well said JON!! Cold front after TGiving, that's all that is expected then possible...a say possible winter wx early December. The last little snow we got in March the gfs showed it 300 hours out and it verified the storm. I don't follow it either but it did show the possibility 300 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Snow for Atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 And here it puts us all right on the edge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 And here it puts us all right on the edge: Taken literally that would be drizzle/showers for our area with surface temps well above freezing and 850s really not getting below 0C until after the precip is done Not that there was any real shot for non-mountainous areas anyway. 00Z and 06Z GFS both show a strong lakes cutter that delivers some pretty cold air down here after it passes. No frozen but at least we're seeing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Sorry guys I just got a dog so I've been out of the loop...but that damn Euro got us again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Taken literally that would be drizzle/showers for our area with surface temps well above freezing and 850s really not getting below 0C until after the precip is done Not that there was any real shot for non-mountainous areas anyway. 00Z and 06Z GFS both show a strong lakes cutter that delivers some pretty cold air down here after it passes. No frozen but at least we're seeing cold. 00z GFS was close with sfc temps...but you're right it looks like it's another run of cold air chasing out the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The last little snow we got in March the gfs showed it 300 hours out and it verified the storm. I don't follow it either but it did show the possibility 300 hours That's what i was thinking that it did show it early then took it away until we got to the 72hr mark. So I wouldn't trash it completely, that's why it does interest me when it shows a storm way down the road for several runs in a row and not jump the cliff if it disappears for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 press and hold down the Alt key then in order numbers 0 1 7 6 and release Alt key Temp - 41* ( how do you make that degree sign thingy again ?) Wind - Calm Skies - Clear The one's that are still up, go outside for just a moment and look at the Moon. Incredible on this crisp night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Doesn't look like anything but rain here for Thanksgiving weekend. It would be nice if that GFS verified for 12/5, though. One can always hope, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Thats a lock!!! (trying to be utterly stupid this year). Can not wait for this one to come true. Man, Im freaking pumped now!!!! http://www.twisterda...WIN_SURFACE.png Here is your fantasy storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Severe and wintry weather in one AFD From Memphis THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH THE MIDDLEMISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH SHOULD BECOME POSITIONED WITHIN A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL HELP TO ADVANCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS BY EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH ON THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS MAY POTENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY WINTER WEATHER THREAT WOULD COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS UNDERCUTS MOIST AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE OVERALL EVENT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR PATTERN INCREASES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Web Cam from Grand Forks, ND. My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Looks like after the 1st of December the snow threat starts to go up. GFS starting to get consistent with a few storms in the long range. Not saying we will get anything but the idea of a storm is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Taken literally that would be drizzle/showers for our area with surface temps well above freezing and 850s really not getting below 0C until after the precip is done Not that there was any real shot for non-mountainous areas anyway. 00Z and 06Z GFS both show a strong lakes cutter that delivers some pretty cold air down here after it passes. No frozen but at least we're seeing cold. Hard to see that storm cutting towards the lakes with such strong blocking. I could be wrong though. The AO and NAO are forecast to really tank, I would not be surprised if the storm track was farther south and east. I'm not calling for any snow, just that the blocking pattern of last winter is starting to show itself again. At least for the first half of Dec. Looks like the euro is falling more with the gfs. The gfs has been taking the euro to the woodshed this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Looks like after the 1st of December the snow threat starts to go up. GFS starting to get consistent with a few storms in the long range. Not saying we will get anything but the idea of a storm is there. Yeah, the GFS was showing snow 300+ hours out for the weekend after thanksgiving (27th-28th) run after run, then the EURO killed it and the GFS is agreeing...Now the GFS showed a fantasy storm on the 5th, and now with today's 06z it shows one on the 7th, both were @ 380hrs. I don't care what it shows at this point...what had me excited was the cold shot we were getting...I still believe we'll get one, I just hope it comes in front of the moisture and not behind...I have a feeling like a few on this board that the setup will show it's face again a few days out, and then we'll be staying up late and refreshing the models, hoping it stays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Very deary and gloomy in Atlanta this morning...Forecast is for mostly sunny and 70????? See, they can even get one day right, but we are talking FFC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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