dsaur Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I think the entire area has suffered enough. Earthquake, tsunami followed by a volcano erupting, that is enough! The one I was interested in this summer was the companion mountain in Iceland. Get enough gas and particulates into the upper reaches that close and it could veil the sun big time. But...it has yet to go off, and the other has calmed down for now. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z euro is ugly. In what way? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The one I was interested in this summer was the companion mountain in Iceland. Get enough gas and particulates into the upper reaches that close and it could veil the sun big time. But...it has yet to go off, and the other has calmed down for now. Tony They really thought that one would blow, guess it still may. I am glad that Merapei (sp) has calmed down, so sad for those people. Hope you see a good sleet storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 In what way? Thanks Run of the mill cold front for this time of year, after that heights crank over the SE, not a torch, but normal temps and dry weather as a cutoff gets going over the center of the country... Has a weak gulf low at 192hrs, with 1 member from the 12z GFS ens showing something similar. Still has a nice block through the extended, but coldest temps are in the Plains. Images can be found here under 12z ECMWF: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I knew it. Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I knew it. What? Still almost a week out and lots of perturbations amongst the guidance. So to say you knew it at this stage is premature, but the middle road, which has been preached by many going forward is the best course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 We usually don't get too many chances, so we need to reel them in when we see 'em Please, sir, don't be nudging that rain shield of yours over this way again, lol. T lol..I would be happy with some rain right now, I didn't get much with that last system. But yeah, I'm itching for something....in particular a good old fashioned wedge and icestorm. Man those are fun to track..when one is on the horizon I disect that sucker for hours lol. And it seems like we haven't had one in a long time (although technically it isn't too far from average if I remember what larry wrote last winter I think). I know a lot of folks don't like ice and prefer snow (and I prefer snow too) but I'm missing the cad right now. We have had so many wedges that were just a degree or two from something special and it seems like it's been really hard to get the classic wedge with low temps/low dewpoints, and plentiful moisture. The fantasy gfs snow shower threat was fun while it lasted...waiting on the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Add me to the list. ..waiting on the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 lol..I would be happy with some rain right now, I didn't get much with that last system. But yeah, I'm itching for something....in particular a good old fashioned wedge and icestorm. Man those are fun to track..when one is on the horizon I disect that sucker for hours lol. And it seems like we haven't had one in a long time (although technically it isn't too far from average if I remember what larry wrote last winter I think). I know a lot of folks don't like ice and prefer snow (and I prefer snow too) but I'm missing the cad right now. We have had so many wedges that were just a degree or two from something special and it seems like it's been really hard to get the classic wedge with low temps/low dewpoints, and plentiful moisture. The fantasy gfs snow shower threat was fun while it lasted...waiting on the next. Like I have stated in other posts, it just seems like the same pattern we had back in the Summer. Only the sun angle is so much lower this time of year, it does not have time to heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 lol..I would be happy with some rain right now, I didn't get much with that last system. But yeah, I'm itching for something....in particular a good old fashioned wedge and icestorm. Man those are fun to track..when one is on the horizon I disect that sucker for hours lol. And it seems like we haven't had one in a long time (although technically it isn't too far from average if I remember what larry wrote last winter I think). I know a lot of folks don't like ice and prefer snow (and I prefer snow too) but I'm missing the cad right now. We have had so many wedges that were just a degree or two from something special and it seems like it's been really hard to get the classic wedge with low temps/low dewpoints, and plentiful moisture. The fantasy gfs snow shower threat was fun while it lasted...waiting on the next. I'm with you that classic CAD has been hard to come by recently. Back in the 2000-2005 period we really got spoiled with at least one decent event that stretched well into Georgia. There were a couple of decently big events last year for NC, but the whole southeast didn't really get to enjoy it. I think one of the main reasons why we didn't see too much in the way of Major CAD last year was just the fact we didn't have a lot of truly arctic air to use up. The -AO was just so powerful that it shut off any chance of cross polar flow, and most of the cold air that invaded the southeast, was just home brew from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z 11/20/10 Euro says, "Not so fast...," in regards to the cold air. However, it really looks like a case of delayed but not denied for a good cold shot IMO. For me, the Euro scenario is how I envision winter being w/ La Nina on the playing field. The cold will look to "lock-in" on the model, but in actuality, the cold will eventually just slide through in a progressive pattern. Last winter, it seemed the models were too warm. This year they appear to be too cold for too long. This winter may involve "threading the needle" a bit more" to get a storm. I will be interested to see if the Gulf opens for business this year. If so, maybe we could beat the odds of the pattern. What's crazy is that the NAO on the CPC site is very negative today and the AO is very negative for a time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 lol..I would be happy with some rain right now, I didn't get much with that last system. But yeah, I'm itching for something....in particular a good old fashioned wedge and icestorm. Man those are fun to track..when one is on the horizon I disect that sucker for hours lol. And it seems like we haven't had one in a long time (although technically it isn't too far from average if I remember what larry wrote last winter I think). I know a lot of folks don't like ice and prefer snow (and I prefer snow too) but I'm missing the cad right now. We have had so many wedges that were just a degree or two from something special and it seems like it's been really hard to get the classic wedge with low temps/low dewpoints, and plentiful moisture. The fantasy gfs snow shower threat was fun while it lasted...waiting on the next. i know many people cant stand ice, while i wish for snow, even ice is better than rain and 33. besides, growing up here i remember quite a few ice storms, and they can be good winter storms. the last good one here was dec 05 (unless you count that at the end of last jan but it wasnt that impressive). they are fun to watch develop and discuss....and also because that is one occasion where you 'know' its going to happen when the temps, dewpoints, wind etc are right and there is a big blog of echos on the radar (unlike snow, which can look good for a long time, then at the last min disappear). ps. and did anyone *really* believe the gfs and snow for thanksgiving in the south east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 i know many people cant stand ice, while i wish for snow, even ice is better than rain and 33. besides, growing up here i remember quite a few ice storms, and they can be good winter storms. the last good one here was dec 05 (unless you count that at the end of last jan but it wasnt that impressive). they are fun to watch develop and discuss....and also because that is one occasion where you 'know' its going to happen when the temps, dewpoints, wind etc are right and there is a big blog of echos on the radar (unlike snow, which can look good for a long time, then at the last min disappear). ps. and did anyone *really* believe the gfs and snow for thanksgiving in the south east? Though Thanksgiving snow was not really in my thinking(would be too good to be true), I do think our best storm chances will be early due to the La Nina pattern - opinion only. I just want it to get cold for now. It was so hot this past summer, I'm enjoying going outside w/out being miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Just some stout cold for Thanksgiving weekend would be a blessing for the ski resorts. Those guys have so much invested and have to earn their keep primarily in December thru February. My hunch is the Euro is gonna whip the GFS on more accurately modeling the cold intrusions this year. It will be interesting to see how the upcoming 10 days verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I knew it. Par for the course. Like I have stated in other posts, it just seems like the same pattern we had back in the Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 lol..I would be happy with some rain right now, I didn't get much with that last system. But yeah, I'm itching for something....in particular a good old fashioned wedge and icestorm. Man those are fun to track..when one is on the horizon I disect that sucker for hours lol. And it seems like we haven't had one in a long time (although technically it isn't too far from average if I remember what larry wrote last winter I think). I know a lot of folks don't like ice and prefer snow (and I prefer snow too) but I'm missing the cad right now. We have had so many wedges that were just a degree or two from something special and it seems like it's been really hard to get the classic wedge with low temps/low dewpoints, and plentiful moisture. The fantasy gfs snow shower threat was fun while it lasted...waiting on the next. The wind down here with that cad we just had was the best I've had in years. It was howling. If it had been 35 with drizzle, it would have been like the old days..before cad went somewhere else I bet with this last one screaming in on me, the folks in favored spots in Ala. were getting that wind too. They really thought that one would blow, guess it still may. I am glad that Merapei (sp) has calmed down, so sad for those people. Hope you see a good sleet storm! Thanks, Rosie I'm sure the one way out at the end of the Goofy will verify...I'm off to get my sled ready. I always have to remind myself when I get too dismissive about it, that the blizzard was once a fantasy storm...and it verified, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 i know many people cant stand ice, while i wish for snow, even ice is better than rain and 33. besides, growing up here i remember quite a few ice storms, and they can be good winter storms. the last good one here was dec 05 (unless you count that at the end of last jan but it wasnt that impressive). they are fun to watch develop and discuss....and also because that is one occasion where you 'know' its going to happen when the temps, dewpoints, wind etc are right and there is a big blog of echos on the radar (unlike snow, which can look good for a long time, then at the last min disappear). ps. and did anyone *really* believe the gfs and snow for thanksgiving in the south east? I'm with ya on the ice, granted not as great as snow, it comes in a close second place for me. You really have to thread the needle to get significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 i know many people cant stand ice, while i wish for snow, even ice is better than rain and 33. besides, growing up here i remember quite a few ice storms, and they can be good winter storms. I love snow and sleet but i'm one of those people who would rather have it be 33 and rain than 32 and ZR. Once your power goes out for a week twice in two years, you never want to hear the words "freezing rain" ever again. The economic damage it does to an area can be severe also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I love snow and sleet but i'm one of those people who would rather have it be 33 and rain than 32 and ZR. Once your power goes out for a week twice in two years, you never want to hear the words "freezing rain" ever again. The economic damage it does to an area can be severe also. lilj, I thought we got rid of that avatar last year. I'm just ready to track something. This boring weather is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 i know many people cant stand ice, while i wish for snow, even ice is better than rain and 33. besides, growing up here i remember quite a few ice storms, and they can be good winter storms. the last good one here was dec 05 (unless you count that at the end of last jan but it wasnt that impressive). they are fun to watch develop and discuss....and also because that is one occasion where you 'know' its going to happen when the temps, dewpoints, wind etc are right and there is a big blog of echos on the radar (unlike snow, which can look good for a long time, then at the last min disappear). ps. and did anyone *really* believe the gfs and snow for thanksgiving in the south east? Naaaa....but sure sounded good! I'm looking at the first week of December...GFS showing some eye candy in fantasy land....Interesting thing is, it keeps showing up! Not the one blip and it's gone again.....For your viewing pleasure.....(No, several runs have indicated this type of scenario...I'm just using this as one example.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Naaaa....but sure sounded good! I'm looking at the first week of December...GFS showing some eye candy in fantasy land....Interesting thing is, it keeps showing up! Not the one blip and it's gone again.....For your viewing pleasure.....(No, several runs have indicated this type of scenario...I'm just using this as one example.) Been watchin this one real close as well. I think the 18z (my memory sucks) yesterday was the only one thats not had this system in it entirely and it still showed something. Been watching it since it first showed up. I think this time frame could bring us a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmH56ypfFeA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I wish the GFS would verify at 50% this tear,,,give us something to believe in. Time for a change in our favor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmH56ypfFeA but it does has some useful information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 One run of the heavily trusted, always accurate euro disagrees with the hardly truested, why-do-we-even-look-at-this-model GFS! Oh no! All hope is lost, guys. Might as well call this winter a bust. Also someone was mentioning that we were expecting a thanksgiving storm? I thought we were expecting an after thanksgiving storm, the weekend after, up to Dec 05 and it's been this way for days? I'm confused...who thought it would snow on thanksgiving, and why? also, by expecting I mean hoping for...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Been watchin this one real close as well. I think the 18z (my memory sucks) yesterday was the only one thats not had this system in it entirely and it still showed something. Been watching it since it first showed up. I think this time frame could bring us a big storm. I know i've been watching as well but not saying a word, you'll get hammered by the GFS haters and the "always 14 days away" crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I dont hate the gfs, its very good for getting an idea of storm potential up to about 192 hours. After 192 its verify rate is HORRIBLE. After 300 it's no better than a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 One run of the heavily trusted, always accurate euro disagrees with the hardly truested, why-do-we-even-look-at-this-model GFS! Oh no! All hope is lost, guys. Might as well call this winter a bust. Also someone was mentioning that we were expecting a thanksgiving storm? I thought we were expecting an after thanksgiving storm, the weekend after, up to Dec 05 and it's been this way for days? I'm confused...who thought it would snow on thanksgiving, and why? also, by expecting I mean hoping for...haha Well said JON!! Cold front after TGiving, that's all that is expected then possible...a say possible winter wx early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I dont hate the gfs, its very good for getting an idea of storm potential up to about 192 hours. After 192 its verify rate is HORRIBLE. After 300 it's no better than a guess I agree with u, i'm looking for potential and setups after 10 days only. No matter what model it is. Several times last year storm potential showed up in days 14 down to 10 then disappeared only to pop back up 3-5 days out. Too many variables to write anything off outside of 5 days. Robert, aka FOOTHILLS does a masterful job as well as a few others (Matt) on here of telling you to keep an eye on this or that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I know i've been watching as well but not saying a word, you'll get hammered by the GFS haters and the "always 14 days away" crowd. I'm not taking it at face by any means. And I'm okay with getting hammered lol. I think there's pretty good storm potential by this point. I know the AO and NAO are forecast to be favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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