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November 2010

FoothillsNC

By FoothillsNC,
in Southeastern States

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
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Yes the South Mountain Chain would probably be my number 1 spot to live in..not too far from home, they get everything, and its secluded. The highest elevation is around 3000' , higher than AVL.

post-38-0-76210500-1290221575.jpg

Right on Robert!

People always talk about going 'up to the mountains' to Asheville. Little do many realize Asheville is at a very low elevation.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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Is "south mtns" what the area is actually called? What towns are located there? Jonas Ridge?

Yep...The South Mountains is a small range of hilltops that stretch along the borders of McDowell/Rutherford/Burke/Cleveland Counties. For the most part the area is undeveloped (residental) but South Mountains State Park is located in the range. The closest community is that region would be Casar (Northern Cleveland County)...the biggest "attraction" would be the Tri-County Grill on NC 18. Morganton is the closest town to the South Mountains, about 10-15 miles away.

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

Posted
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Not being smart or anything, but I dont see any snow for GA in the short or medium range on the 0zgfs. Could you link me to what your seeing?

I meant that it doesn't show any. Sorry. Should have phrased that better. The 12z and 18z showed some but it dropped the idea on the 0z. Sorry again. I'll phrase it better next time. :)

However, even if it were to fall as snow (doubtful but possible), I don't think ground temps would support any accumulation.

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
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I meant that it doesn't show any. Sorry. Should have phrased that better. The 12z and 18z showed some but it dropped the idea on the 0z. Sorry again. I'll phrase it better next time. :)

However, even if it were to fall as snow (doubtful but possible), I don't think ground temps would support any accumulation.

Oh, my bad I thought you meant it literally DROPS snow in GA.:P Im affraid the GFS is going to trend from a band of snow behind the front to all rain :frostymelt::underthewx:

But good luck to you GA folk :thumbsup:

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

Posted
Posted

Oh, my bad I thought you meant it literally DROPS snow in GA.:P Im affraid the GFS is going to trend from a band of snow behind the front to all rain :frostymelt::underthewx:

But good luck to you GA folk :thumbsup:

Thats what I figure too. I was surprised to see it show snow at all 7 days out lol. It will be interesting to watch for sure though.

Not getting my hopes up for this winter too much. Looks to be a warm one. Hopefully we get one good snow. Its good for business. Milk bread and eggs lol.

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

Well, well . well it has already started, ain't this going to be fun? Let the late night model run watching begin. Post Thanksgiving snow just to get us in the mood for the holidays.

Something I think we need to watch is the Volcano that has been spewing ash for about a month or more may really play havoc on some winter forecast !

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

Posted
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Something I think we need to watch is the Volcano that has been spewing ash for about a month or more may really play havoc on some winter forecast !

Love those late nights!

And I've thought about that too. Idk what it could do to the winter but if it'll bring me some more snow I'll be happy. I'm not positive if the effects will happen this winter or if it will take until next summer for them to really ramp up. Any historical context we can go by that you know of?

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

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Love those late nights!

And I've thought about that too. Idk what it could do to the winter but if it'll bring me some more snow I'll be happy. I'm not positive if the effects will happen this winter or if it will take until next summer for them to really ramp up. Any historical context we can go by that you know of?

Well, there has been some talk of it possibly making the overall winter colder, but that can only happen if the volcano had shot enough material AND made it reach the stratosphere (if I'm correct) as well.  There could be a bit of a lag effect, but I'm thinking it won't take long considering the location its in (apparently tropical volcanoes have a shorter lag effect than high latitude ones).  I definitely think it will affect next summer and winter.  Didn't hear this from me, though.  I just got this from another forum a while back (either FA or Accuweather).  Sounds reasonable to me.  We'll have to see.  I think Henry Margusity also brought it up at one point in one of his blogs.  

that storm at one point prompted the weather service to up my totals to 8 " to 12" but as soon as that was issued,  the banding moved just immediately north of here, and I was dryslotted the rest of the storm. It actually arrived a few hours earlier than progged, but quickly vanished. I barely managed 2.5 to 3" I think. Nearby towns like Cherryville, NC had 8" ...literally a few miles away, under some good banding. I remember thinking how I would have hated being just a couple more miles south in the Upstate of SC, where it never even arrived at all. The moisture patterns even in Winter play some funny games here.

This reminds me of the Feb. 26-27 snowstorm that hit in our area back in 2004. While I got a little over a foot here, areas E and SE got the jackpot with a whopping 16-20 inches in spots!  Just a drive in either direction led to significantly more snow accumulations out of nowhere.   Here's the link showing that. 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2004/feb/carolinasnow.gif

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Is "south mtns" what the area is actually called? What towns are located there? Jonas Ridge?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Mountains_%28North_Carolina%29

The south mountains are awesome so long as you avoid knobby.

:guitar:

Well, the cold is certainly coming to us here in the intermtn west. My forecasted (my forecast for my viewers) is -8F for wed am and -1 for thur. Going to be the coldest air I have personally been in.

How much snow are you expecting? Tuesday/Wed looks good for the white stuff there.

the 00Z GFS and ECM look very different after Thanksgiving for the East. THe GFS keeps the cold nw flow going a long time, even with undercutting systems later on with snow chance for NC and points north, probably a bias though.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
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http://www.ncparks.gov/Visit/parks/somo/main.php

Yep...The South Mountains is a small range of hilltops that stretch along the borders of McDowell/Rutherford/Burke/Cleveland Counties. For the most part the area is undeveloped (residental) but South Mountains State Park is located in the range. The closest community is that region would be Casar (Northern Cleveland County)...the biggest "attraction" would be the Tri-County Grill on NC 18. Morganton is the closest town to the South Mountains, about 10-15 miles away.

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

Love those late nights!

And I've thought about that too. Idk what it could do to the winter but if it'll bring me some more snow I'll be happy. I'm not positive if the effects will happen this winter or if it will take until next summer for them to really ramp up. Any historical context we can go by that you know of?

I followed the thread on Mt. Merapi back on Eastern and the consensus seemed to be that the eruption was levels of magnitude lower than what we need for perceptible global cooling. Plus I'm not sure we should be rooting for a volcano to continue causing havoc in an already decimated area...

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

Posted
Posted

I followed the thread on Mt. Merapi back on Eastern and the consensus seemed to be that the eruption was levels of magnitude lower than what we need for perceptible global cooling. Plus I'm not sure we should be rooting for a volcano to continue causing havoc in an already decimated area...

I'm not rooting for it, I just don't know what the effects of what its already done will do. I would love for it to stop right now.

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rosie

rosie

Posted
Posted

I followed the thread on Mt. Merapi back on Eastern and the consensus seemed to be that the eruption was levels of magnitude lower than what we need for perceptible global cooling. Plus I'm not sure we should be rooting for a volcano to continue causing havoc in an already decimated area...

I think the entire area has suffered enough. Earthquake, tsunami followed by a volcano erupting, that is enough!

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Lee

Lee

Posted
Posted

http://en.wikipedia....rth_Carolina%29

:guitar:

How much snow are you expecting? Tuesday/Wed looks good for the white stuff there.

the 00Z GFS and ECM look very different after Thanksgiving for the East. THe GFS keeps the cold nw flow going a long time, even with undercutting systems later on with snow chance for NC and points north, probably a bias though.

Thought that bias was fixed. Have even heard a little too much.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

I agree . We had the temps to support snow aloft for most if not all the storm, the moisture bands just didn't work out for us. Contrast that with the Dec 18 storm, where we need a half a degree for an historic snow dumping, had all the moisture in the world for about 18 hours. It was definitely an Asheville to DC Winter. I think we'll do ok this Winter with atleast one storm where we shine.

December 18th was the most painful for me too despite chasing to the Triad for some of it. The 19th was my bday and we were oh so close to the best gift I could hope for IMBY. It was heartbreaking driving through the transition zone as I headed home.

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

http://en.wikipedia....rth_Carolina%29

:guitar:

How much snow are you expecting? Tuesday/Wed looks good for the white stuff there.

the 00Z GFS and ECM look very different after Thanksgiving for the East. The GFS keeps the cold nw flow going a long time, even with undercutting systems later on with snow chance for NC and points north, probably a bias though.

12z GFS's now showing a similar solution from the 0z's previous run, but much colder air is available and a 991mb coastal low instead of a 994. Same date, of course (Dec. 5).

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

This is an interesting airmass the gfs showing. A lot of times you see the surface cold hang back a good bit but the gfs is showing really cold air all the way to the surface or near surface behind the front. GFS soundings look cold enough for snow over the northwestern/northern half of georgia (especially northwest/mountains) .

Too far out though and it doesn't mean much at this point but it's interesting to see the gfs showing such a cold and deep airmass behind the front the last two runs. At least we have our first gfs fantasy snow though lol

We usually don't get too many chances, so we need to reel them in when we see 'em :) Please, sir, don't be nudging that rain shield of yours over this way again, lol. T

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I am definitly not bitting on any individual GFS run (> 10 days). The latest 12z would be a dream (> 8" snow) for my area at day 15. But I do think we have a good chance of the overall pattern locking in. We just have to hope any storms don't cut of through the lakes, or west of the mountains. I think I speak for all in saying it is hard not to get a little bit excited.

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