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November 2010

FoothillsNC

By FoothillsNC,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

:( well its just a 40% chance snow showers after midnight (with rain showers before). we know all too well how that usually works out (cold air coming in with moisture left) lol. at a week away and this being ga and nov. i would bet that its certainly not going to happen. although i sure wouldnt complain if it did :snowman: although it is nice at least seeing flakes in the forecast - that means we are just about getting to the time of year where it can theoretically snow (whether it actually does or not)

EDITED TO ADD:

for any staff peeps - WOW i just changed from mobile skin to the default skin. it looks great!!! nice update

This is an interesting airmass the gfs showing. A lot of times you see the surface cold hang back a good bit but the gfs is showing really cold air all the way to the surface or near surface behind the front. GFS soundings look cold enough for snow over the northwestern/northern half of georgia (especially northwest/mountains) .

Too far out though and it doesn't mean much at this point but it's interesting to see the gfs showing such a cold and deep airmass behind the front the last two runs. At least we have our first gfs fantasy snow though lol

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

This is an interesting airmass the gfs showing. A lot of times you see the surface cold hang back a good bit but the gfs is showing really cold air all the way to the surface or near surface behind the front. GFS soundings look cold enough for snow over the northwestern/northern half of georgia (especially northwest/mountains) .

Too far out though and it doesn't mean much at this point but it's interesting to see the gfs showing such a cold and deep airmass behind the front the last two runs. At least we have our first gfs fantasy snow though lol

You are correct. Hope to cash in on a few this season..

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Last winter was the worst, with all the cold air for so long and little snow to show for it. I'd rather it stay mild if it isn't going to snow.

Ended up with 50" on the stick from two chases (avg 20" a pop) and 10" imby (although 2-3" of that was from one EPIC IP storm) :snowing:

Think this was the one, started as SN before I went to bed, but transitioned to IP and was poring shards all night and well into the late morning...

accum.20100129.gif

Also had a trace glaze of ZR, but areas to the south and east of me faired much better in that department... :arrowhead:

accum.fzra.20100129.gif

Sure most of u remember this, MHX specifically was like this does not happen here, as were most of the other WFO's pulling the WTF card! :guitar:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/

MODELS COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT-SAT

NIGHT WITH WINTER WX EVENT LOOKING MORE PROBABLE FOR INLAND

SECTIONS. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN

AND SLEET INLAND OF HWY 17 AND PSBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG

AND N OF HWY 64. CLIMO SUGGESTS RARE EVENT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET E OF I-95...THUS SKEPTICAL OF MODEL FCSTS OF SIGNIFICANT

SUBFREEZING LAYER AROUND 925 MB LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY

GIVEN E-NE FLOW THAT LAYER. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS LAYER WILL BE

MODIFIED BY MARINE LAYER. CONTINUED MENTION OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING

RAIN/SLEET FOR COASTAL PLAINS FRI NIGHT AND EXTENDED THROUGH DAY ON

SAT...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION DID NOT

POST WINTER STORM WATCH THIS PACKAGE. PCPN LIKELY ENDING AS LIGHT

SNOW OVER NRN SECTIONS SAT EVE AND INCREASED POPS THAT AREA BUT

STILL KEPT IN CHC RANGE. DID INDICATE 1/2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION

PSBL FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF GREENVILLE-WASHINGTON-COLUMBIA LINE.

ALSO EXTENDED LOW CHC POPS FOR PCPN ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW OVER ERN

2/3 OF AREA 06Z-12Z SAT NIGHT BUT NO ACCUM.

:facepalm:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/221227-jan-29-30-se-winter-storm-discoobs/

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

This is an interesting airmass the gfs showing. A lot of times you see the surface cold hang back a good bit but the gfs is showing really cold air all the way to the surface or near surface behind the front. GFS soundings look cold enough for snow over the northwestern/northern half of georgia (especially northwest/mountains) .

Too far out though and it doesn't mean much at this point but it's interesting to see the gfs showing such a cold and deep airmass behind the front the last two runs. At least we have our first gfs fantasy snow though lol

Nice to see you chime in...can't remember a fantasy storm this early so maybe the models will really have a hard time picking up on all the details and under-do it....wishful thinking but you never know

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

Found the thread leading up to that event, good times for sure... :drunk:

http://www.easternus...i/page__st__700

DT, LOL

WWCINC -- Weather Weenie Commander in Chief -- has UPGRADED the CONDITION BARVO #2 to CONDITION ALPHA …effective for the approximate time from 0100 EST 1/29/2010 to 2000 EST 1/30/2010 for the LIKELY occurrence of a H.E.C.S. (Historic East Coast Snowstorm) for the Following areas of concern:

… northern NC North of I-40 (except for Albermarle sound region) …

… All of VA south of a line from CHO to EZF…

… Southern county of DE…

… Lower MD eastern shore counties of Dorchester Wicomico Somerset and Worcester…

When was this released ?

AT THIS TIME this does NOT include Washington DC or Baltimore Metro areas but this region will see SIGNIFICANT snow (reaching S.E.C.S. criteria ).

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Ended up with 50" on the stick from two chases (avg 20" a pop) and 10" imby (although 2-3" of that was from one EPIC IP storm) :snowing:

Think this was the one, started as SN before I went to bed, but transitioned to IP and was poring shards all night and well into the late morning...

accum.20100129.gif

Also had a trace glaze of ZR, but areas to the south and east of me faired much better in that department... :arrowhead:

accum.fzra.20100129.gif

Sure most of u remember this, MHX specifically was like this does not happen here, as were most of the other WFO's pulling the WTF card! :guitar:

http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20100129/

that Jan 30 storm was painful here. Just missed out on a seasonal dumping in one storm, as was the Dec 18....missed again by a sliver. I can't wait to get my ducks in a row and move up to upper Rutherford or upper Cleveland where snow AND rain falls. I really miss precipitation.

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
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that Jan 30 storm was painful here. Just missed out on a seasonal dumping in one storm, as was the Dec 18....missed again by a sliver. I can't wait to get my ducks in a row and move up to upper Rutherford or upper Cleveland where snow AND rain falls. I really miss precipitation.

come on near me, you can drive a truck and plow some scooter.gif

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Havent gone through the thread but I am sure Brick was there complaining the snow hasnt started yet and that he didnt get enough snow before the change to sleet. :thumbsdown:

Just updated the post with the actual storm thread (but 50 page SE discos were flying off the handle at 2 per day leading up to, and right after the event), as well as the MHX disco that basically told big brother (RAH) to you know what...

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NEGa

NEGa

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Posted

This is an interesting airmass the gfs showing. A lot of times you see the surface cold hang back a good bit but the gfs is showing really cold air all the way to the surface or near surface behind the front. GFS soundings look cold enough for snow over the northwestern/northern half of georgia (especially northwest/mountains) .

Too far out though and it doesn't mean much at this point but it's interesting to see the gfs showing such a cold and deep airmass behind the front the last two runs. At least we have our first gfs fantasy snow though lol

it certainly is, although i have been burned enough i am still not biting yet :grinch: at least the cold hasnt been pushed farther and farther back and is still on for late next week.

:facepalm:

lol - last winter was far from the worst, even though many storms didnt pan out, quite a few did, we had a lot to watch, and it was cold for a very long time (esp. by se standards)

that Jan 30 storm was painful here. Just missed out on a seasonal dumping in one storm, as was the Dec 18....missed again by a sliver. I can't wait to get my ducks in a row and move up to upper Rutherford or upper Cleveland where snow AND rain falls. I really miss precipitation.

sigh, it was sort of mixed here. the forecast was for a lot of snow then a lot of ice. as most of us recall, the moisture stayed south and no snow. ended up with about .3" ice, which is the most in the last several years. normally i would have been happy with that for a winter storm, but was still irritated when i realized looking at the radar the snow wasnt going to happen (even though the forecasts still said snow, offering that faint glimmer of hope)

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

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that Jan 30 storm was painful here. Just missed out on a seasonal dumping in one storm, as was the Dec 18....missed again by a sliver. I can't wait to get my ducks in a row and move up to upper Rutherford or upper Cleveland where snow AND rain falls. I really miss precipitation.

That storm is probably one of the most disappointing storms I can ever remember. We were looking at a storm like 1988 24 hours out an ended up with 3 or 4 inches of packed down concrete.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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that storm at one point prompted the weather service to up my totals to 8 " to 12" but as soon as that was issued, the banding moved just immediately north of here, and I was dryslotted the rest of the storm. It actually arrived a few hours earlier than progged, but quickly vanished. I barely managed 2.5 to 3" I think. Nearby towns like Cherryville, NC had 8" ...literally a few miles away, under some good banding. I remember thinking how I would have hated being just a couple more miles south in the Upstate of SC, where it never even arrived at all. The moisture patterns even in Winter play some funny games here.

it certainly is, although i have been burned enough i am still not biting yet :grinch: at least the cold hasnt been pushed farther and farther back and is still on for late next week.

lol - last winter was far from the worst, even though many storms didnt pan out, quite a few did, we had a lot to watch, and it was cold for a very long time (esp. by se standards)

sigh, it was sort of mixed here. the forecast was for a lot of snow then a lot of ice. as most of us recall, the moisture stayed south and no snow. ended up with about .3" ice, which is the most in the last several years. normally i would have been happy with that for a winter storm, but was still irritated when i realized looking at the radar the snow wasnt going to happen (even though the forecasts still said snow, offering that faint glimmer of hope)

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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That storm is probably one of the most disappointing storms I can ever remember. We were looking at a storm like 1988 24 hours out an ended up with 3 or 4 inches of packed down concrete.

I agree . We had the temps to support snow aloft for most if not all the storm, the moisture bands just didn't work out for us. Contrast that with the Dec 18 storm, where we need a half a degree for an historic snow dumping, had all the moisture in the world for about 18 hours. It was definitely an Asheville to DC Winter. I think we'll do ok this Winter with atleast one storm where we shine.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

lol..........

NWS---- .THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A

CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN

THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

MORNING. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

Looks like a white day after Thanksgiving :snowman:

I couldn't be so lucky. We'll be cutting down the ole tree Friday-week. Be a great way to kick-off the season. Great Disco today on 12 z suite by everyone.

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Tarheel67

Tarheel67

Posted
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The near misses last year here in CLT were really frustrating. I think the Dec. 18th was the worst, since it turned out to be merely an epic 33 degree rainy day rather than the epic snow it could've been. With the cold temps that followed and Christmas only a week away, a White Christmas was missed by that much.

All wasn't lost, as I spent Christmas eve at my cousin's near Lincolnton. I couldn't figure out what was on some of the banks beside the road on the way up there until it dawned on me that it was snow from the previous week. They got around 4 inches up their way, and still had some sizable patches on the ground on the 24th. Being able to see any snow, enough to make a few snowballs even, on Christmas eve was certainly better than nothing.

It was hard to believe we didn't get something sizable out of that insane amount of cold air we had, since that is usually our missing ingredient rather than the lack of moisture.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

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Posted

I recall tight gradient in depth from my 6" to upwards on 10" just 10+ miles N of MBY. This area got lucky with the redevelopment that night. So ready for some long nights..

that storm at one point prompted the weather service to up my totals to 8 " to 12" but as soon as that was issued, the banding moved just immediately north of here, and I was dryslotted the rest of the storm. It actually arrived a few hours earlier than progged, but quickly vanished. I barely managed 2.5 to 3" I think. Nearby towns like Cherryville, NC had 8" ...literally a few miles away, under some good banding. I remember thinking how I would have hated being just a couple more miles south in the Upstate of SC, where it never even arrived at all. The moisture patterns even in Winter play some funny games here.

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UpStateCAD

UpStateCAD

Posted
Posted

If I had my choices I'd probably move between Yadkinville, Boone, Morganton triangle, but at this point in my life I can't venture far as I'm my parents caretaker....one day though.

Foothills at one time I thought you kinda liked the southern mountains as well. For good winter weather, you like the area above better?

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Foothills at one time I thought you kinda liked the southern mountains as well. For good winter weather, you like the area above better?

Yes the South Mountain Chain would probably be my number 1 spot to live in..not too far from home, they get everything, and its secluded. The highest elevation is around 3000' , higher than AVL.

post-38-0-76210500-1290221575.jpg

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UpStateCAD

UpStateCAD

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Posted

Yes the South Mountain Chain would probably be my number 1 spot to live in..not too far from home, they get everything, and its secluded. The highest elevation is around 3000' , higher than AVL.

post-38-0-76210500-1290221575.jpg

I thought you were refering to the Highland/Cashiers area. Are you actually talking about the area that is circled on the map?

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