November 2010

[NCSNOW]

Lunch break and just checking in for a quick update. Thanks WeatherNc for taking the time to cover all the 0z runs. Great annalysis. Man it's beatiful outside today. bottomed out at 29 last night when leaving the house at 5:00.

[Brick Tamland]

Sure does look interesting after Thanksgiving. And so it begins...

[strongwxnc]

I might be giddy but burned to often to get excited until 24 hrs out.

Great disco on your post btw..

Better off than me... I usually get giddy under 120 if the agreement is strong. n.

[FoothillsNC]

This is new, looks like a little frontal moisture transport off the Gulf maybe?

I noticed the front on or just after Thanksgiving is a slow mover on the GFS with additional s/w shearing out, over the lower level cold banked west of the apps, even into n. Ms, Al./Tn. I'm still not sold on a full frontal quick passage, with that lagging s/w still to be handled right, but I thought earlier the overrunning would be furthern north. The models are having trouble with the changing pattern thats for sure. Does the Greenland ridge retrograde across north Canada or not, still can't really say. If it does, I expect more unexpected , sudden changes to show up run to run...usually some amplification in the mid/eastern US if that happens, even with a eastern Pacific zonal flow with absence of PNA ridge, at the very least probably sustained cold in the northern to Northeast US.

[EmersonGA]

Calc 2 is the hard one, after that it kind of becomes fluent and 3 is a breeze... Partial DiffEQ sucked though and I would not wish that class on anyone. I do not know how I made it through that class. Professor was from Poland, barley spoke english, but did give wicked curves on the exams. I think I only passed one test with a raw score, failed the final outright, and still came out with a A.

My first test in college was a 26 in Calc 1. That was a C with the curve. I made a C in the class with a 55 average. The calc 2 teacher didn't curve near as much. I watched a guy in our final leaf through every page, get up, and turn in a blank test after muttering some profanity. I made a D in the class and the business school thought that was good enough.

[NC_hailstorm]

29.9 this morning.

Looking at that AO forecast reminds me of last year.It fought off a moderate El-Nino last year but can it fight off a moderate La-Nina this year?

[FoothillsNC]

the 12Z Euro is beginning to look a little like the front and timing of the GFS with it slowing in Southwest flow, especially west of the Apps, with enough cold air west of the mountains, around Tenn, northern Mississippi and maybe n. Alabama for a little period of Snow on Thanksgiving night./early Friday, with surface temps there just above freezing to upper 30's. Minnesota surface temps around -10 F.

[strongwxnc]

the 12Z Euro is beginning to look a little like the front and timing of the GFS with it slowing in Southwest flow, especially west of the Apps, with enough cold air west of the mountains, around Tenn, northern Mississippi and maybe n. Alabama for a little period of Snow on Thanksgiving night./early Friday, with surface temps there just above freezing to upper 30's. Minnesota surface temps around -10 F.

Now that would be epic cold. I assume

[WeatherNC]

12z European hanging a lot of energy back in the SW at day 6 and 7, and just a glancing blow after that with a cool-down... 558dm heights barely scrape northern NC at 192 and the pattern goes zonal in the east after that. Hopefully its typical bias in hanging energy back in the 4 corners area and another junk run. .

...yuck...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

Edit: 240 looks like another shot of cold air coming down behind a possible system in the MS Valley

[WeatherNC]

the 12Z Euro is beginning to look a little like the front and timing of the GFS with it slowing in Southwest flow, especially west of the Apps, with enough cold air west of the mountains, around Tenn, northern Mississippi and maybe n. Alabama for a little period of Snow on Thanksgiving night./early Friday, with surface temps there just above freezing to upper 30's. Minnesota surface temps around -10 F.

Little being the operative word, I see what you mean in regards to hanging the front back, but EC really hangs it up, almost into the Baja at 144. Even at 168 you can still see the influence being exerted whereas the GFS has a much more symmetrical trough coming east. Would that 988 around the UP of Michigan on the EC at 144 have anything to do with it (i.e. cause this) as the Global does not show that, rather a weak low (1005) near Erie PA...

[SBUWX23]

12z European hanging a lot of energy back in the SW at day 6 and 7, and just a glancing blow after that with a cool-down... 558dm heights barely scrape northern NC at 192 and the pattern goes zonal in the east after that. Hopefully its typical bias in hanging energy back in the 4 corners area and another junk run. .

...yuck...

http://raleighwx.ame...dels/ecmwf.html

Just posted similar thoughts in the NYC medium range thread. The European has been inconsistent with this for a while now so do not know if we can take much stock in anything just yet. Probably what will happen is we will trend to a relaxed solution somewhere in between the GFS and Euro.

[FoothillsNC]

Now that would be epic cold. I assume

below normal for sure, but not sure if its not unheard of this time of year. It shouldn't stay around, the Euro has this cold in and out in a hurry for us. The next storm is showing up for the areas west of the Apps by day 10, with a deepening trough in west Tn, probably a snowstorm on the west side of it.

Here's some rain for our area. Pretty depressing for me, with barely a quarter inch this month, after not much last month or the month before as well. I'm around 31" for the year, and this map verfies that, but its way worse areas around Columbia and just west, pretty much all of central to western SC are having a terrible drought year, GSP proper has actually lucked out though. Northern Spartanburg and Greenville Counties are pushing 20" below on the year. I know some mountain folks hate using this, since the topography there makes it harder to really get agood feel on exact areas of where the rain was/wasn't but for the lower elevations here and into SC its dead on accurate, with only a few tenths or up to an inch off, which is extremely close to reality. This 12" to 16" and even 20" wouldn't be so hard to take here, and I'm not alone in the South for sure this year, but it never leaves here. Unless things get mysteriously wet for SC up to here, then this year will make 10 out the last 12 years below normal, most are way below normal, and I'm speaking of south central Cleveland County to north Spa/Gnv/Chero Counties SC. Looks like many in the southeast are heading for a drier year, but everyone else's drought comes and goes. Mine just comes.

month to date:

year to date:

year to date departure:

[FoothillsNC]

that energy hanging back in the Southwest is just a shearing shortwave, which I've like that idea now for a long time, whether the models show it or not, its pretty common. A storm wraps up in the Lakes, weakens, the fronts maximium thrust gets stalled around the Apps, which allows a little time for some development or overrunning like an Anafront, but probably no big deal, unless the shortwve doesn't dampen, but most likely it will. Then the cold air slides east without too much thrust deep in the Southeast, so there will be a pretty tight gradient on the cold say from northern NC to central GA.

The blockiness in Canada builds west late in the run, and probably going to be another strong amplification somewhere again around day 10 or 11, but I'm sure the Euro is probably wrong as to where just yet, but with the ridging working west in northern Canada, I'd say its likely to feature a deepening good storm in the Tenn Valley, nations Midsection or Ohio Valley, which would be followed by colder air for most of th SE, but thats getting out there.

[Weather Czar]

The Euro has been all over the place from run to run.

[HKY_WX]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS_loop.html

The problem with the pattern in the immediate future is the cold air will be entering the CONUS over the pacific northwest, which will generally setup a pattern for plains/midwest lows. Not conducive for us at all. With the -PDO, that's going to be a problem all winter long. It would be good for winter if we see that PDO number rise.

Without the ridge out there to direct cold into the plains/great lakes, we have to rely on the NAO, which will likely redirect the cold air east with time. But there will be a lag time from when it sets up to when the pattern really changes for us. Not sure it matters at this point, as it's Nov.

[Tyler Penland]

12z GFS run is interesting. 162-168 hours show the 0 850MB line moving in. Twisterdata.com puts an inch over parts of northern AL,MS, and a good chunk of TN. With NW GA involved too.

Doubtful for anything in NE GA but something to watch for sure.

[Brian]

Just going to have to wait and see. Too much speculation.

[NEGa]

below normal for sure, but not sure if its not unheard of this time of year. It shouldn't stay around, the Euro has this cold in and out in a hurry for us. The next storm is showing up for the areas west of the Apps by day 10, with a deepening trough in west Tn, probably a snowstorm on the west side of it.

Here's some rain for our area. Pretty depressing for me, with barely a quarter inch this month, after not much last month or the month before as well. I'm around 31" for the year, and this map verfies that, but its way worse areas around Columbia and just west, pretty much all of central to western SC are having a terrible drought year, GSP proper has actually lucked out though. Northern Spartanburg and Greenville Counties are pushing 20" below on the year.

this is sort of one of my fears this year. last year we had pretty much sustained cold for long periods of time, so when precip headed this way the chance of something frozen was definitely there. i just hope this year we dont get the really fast cold shots that roll through, give us really cold temps in the teens, only to be in the upper 30s or 40s two days later with just plain rain

[Brick Tamland]

Last winter was the worst, with all the cold air for so long and little snow to show for it. I'd rather it stay mild if it isn't going to snow.

[Jon]

I was thinking the same thing... She looks like the chick from that 70's show.

Thanks for noticing, guys...haha. Actually that's her favorite character, so I'll tell her! She looks kinda like this: http://www.ecoautoninja.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/penelope-cruz.jpg

I'll be sure to let her know, maybe she'll like these forums now.

[Itunis]

Last winter was the worst, with all the cold air for so long and little snow to show for it. I'd rather it stay mild if it isn't going to snow.

How much snow did you get? If you got near to slightly above average I can kind of understand your frustration. Eyewall IIRC has sort of the same opinion on last winter as you.

[BIG FROSTY]

lol..........

NWS---- .THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A

CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN

THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

MORNING. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

Looks like a white day after Thanksgiving

[BullCityWx]

The Euro tries really hard to give most of the foothills and piedmont in NC some flurries on Black Friday but it may be a little too warm at the sfc.

[NEGa]

appears that the magical 4 letter word is starting to pop up in the forecasts for n ga thur night lol. obviously chances are pretty low...but what i really want is the cold air to come in to see if we are in one of those '10 day out' patterns that never materialize

[jrips27]

If it snows here while I'm down in Florida... Im gonna be ticked.

[ams30721us]

[/url]NWS HUNTSVILLE:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

1256 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS FG REDVLPMT TNGT. DEW POINTS

HAVE RISEN INTO L-M40S...RADIATION FG APPEARS TO BE A HIGH

LIKELIHOOD...SPCLY VALLEY AREAS AND OVER BODIES OF WATER. WL FCST

AREAS OF DENSE FG...AND ALERT THE NEXT SHIFT FOR THE PSBLTY OF

ISSUING A DENSE FG ADVISORY THIS EVENING. THIS MORNING...MANY AREAS

THAT HAD FG REPORTED VSBYS <1/4 TO NEAR ZERO. SOME AREAS COULD GET

CLOSE TO FREEZING AGAIN IN OUR ERN VALLEYS...SO SOME FROSTY ROADS

COULD ALSO DVLP.

A BEAUTIFUL SET OF DAYS IS AHEAD FOR THE TN VALLEY WITH UNSEASONABLE

WARMTH ENVELOPING THE REGION. THE WEAK SHORT IN THE FLOW IN WRN TX

TRACKS ACROSS ON SAT WITH NO FANFARE...OR CLDS FOR THAT MATTER. TEMPS

SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF

NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 80F TEMPS TUE OR WED WITH +12-13C 8H

TEMPS...BUT HAVE HELD A BIT SHORT OF THAT FOR NOW. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED

THINKING TOO MUCH BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS FOR A POTENTIAL STORMY

PD WED-THU. TIMING STILL IS IN QUESTION...BUT MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT

EXISTS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF. A QLCS APPEARS LIKELY...DESPITE LIMITED

TO NO SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...MODERATE-HIGH LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR.

SEVERITY IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION. AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT

WL SET UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AFT FROPA ON THANKSGIVING...WITH

STRONG PARALLEL FLOW AT MID-UPR LEVELS. THUS...PERSISTENT STRATIFORM

PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO THU NGT-FRI. FOR NOW...WL NOT BITE INTO

THIS 12Z SOLN JUST YET...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH THERMAL PROFILES

CLOSELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A PSBL WINTRY MIX IN

NWRN AL THU NGT. WINTER FORECAST SEASON HAS ARRIVED.

[rosie]

appears that the magical 4 letter word is starting to pop up in the forecasts for n ga thur night lol. obviously chances are pretty low...but what i really want is the cold air to come in to see if we are in one of those '10 day out' patterns that never materialize

Not for this area! BOO

[NEGa]

Not for this area! BOO

well its just a 40% chance snow showers after midnight (with rain showers before). we know all too well how that usually works out (cold air coming in with moisture left) lol. at a week away and this being ga and nov. i would bet that its certainly not going to happen. although i sure wouldnt complain if it did although it is nice at least seeing flakes in the forecast - that means we are just about getting to the time of year where it can theoretically snow (whether it actually does or not)

EDITED TO ADD:

for any staff peeps - WOW i just changed from mobile skin to the default skin. it looks great!!! nice update

[rosie]

well its just a 40% chance snow showers after midnight (with rain showers before). we know all too well how that usually works out (cold air coming in with moisture left) lol. at a week away and this being ga and nov. i would bet that its certainly not going to happen. although i sure wouldnt complain if it did although it is nice at least seeing flakes in the forecast - that means we are just about getting to the time of year where it can theoretically snow (whether it actually does or not)

EDITED TO ADD:

for any staff peeps - WOW i just changed from mobile skin to the default skin. it looks great!!! nice update

I should not complain, had a tiny bit if snow on my deck with the last event. Hope you get to see a few flakes!

[eyewall]

How much snow did you get? If you got near to slightly above average I can kind of understand your frustration. Eyewall IIRC has sort of the same opinion on last winter as you.

I actually do for IMBY. Thankfully I chased some events to make it somewhat of a good winter, especially the meso band in Sanford in early March.