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November 2010

FoothillsNC

By FoothillsNC,
in Southeastern States

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

You rang? :D The good luck charm is here. :devilsmiley:

Was wondering when you would show?

Brian, if you've followed this stuff over the last 5 years you should be conditioned to the fact that the GFS and Euro typically give us hope in the long range then dash it a couple days later, but every now and then around 5 days it comes back. Just don't want to start the ledge jumping this early. Anything in Nov/December out of the norm would be a bonus in the SE IMHO. Whether it be colder than avg days and nights or some frozen precip. We like good MOJO on this board, I get enough negativity at work.

So here's to some good WX in the future.

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

Euro and GFS are again in fairly good agreement regarding the intensity of the cold shot-the Euro backed off a bit on the extreme cold it was showing, with 850s generally just below freezing north of I-20, with a bit cooler temps dipping down into N TN. Right now it looks like a run of the mill cold shot rather than historic cold, but with the Euro still showing a strongly negative NAO through the end of the forecast period it will be fun.

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EmersonGA

EmersonGA

Posted
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I just started college this year and can't even tell you how many times I pull up weather stuff in class lol. I spend more time looking at it than paying attention to teachers. Luckily in a couple years I'll be down at GA Tech taking classes that require me to look at the weather. :) And as for the popularity department..... I have a facebook group with 160+ members called the Tyler Penland Weather Service lol. Most people call me "the weatherman." lol And I won a talent show and had lead in senior play so that helped. Some. lol Oh crap. Must stop bragging and being an #%@. Back to weather.

Had a benefit concert at the school tonight. Cold as crap after standing there for a couple hours. Get home and the temp is a whopping 49.7. Standing on that field felt like it was freezing.

Great to see a future Yellow Jacket. Let me know when you get down there. I can give you a lot of pointers as a semi-recent alum. I still do a lot of work around there with my job as well.

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

Posted
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Great to see a future Yellow Jacket. Let me know when you get down there. I can give you a lot of pointers as a semi-recent alum. I still do a lot of work around there with my job as well.

Thanks! I'm currently at North Georgia College and State getting my core out of the way. Was accepted to tech but couldn't afford it this year. :/ And I'll definately let you know. Should be year after next. :)

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
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Thanks! I'm currently at North Georgia College and State getting my core out of the way. Was accepted to tech but couldn't afford it this year. :/ And I'll definately let you know. Should be year after next. :)

Didn't know Tech had an undergrad Met. degree. When I went for my degree in the early 90's they did not have an undergrad Met. degree. Ended up at UNC-Asheville which isn't too far away plus the mountains are awesome.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Love the 384 snow depth. Give me that for tomorrow, and we can talk.

My rules from last year. Under 24 hrs I will get excited..

Better off than me... I usually get giddy under 120 if the agreement is strong. :snowman: Any-who, still a good deal of disagreement in the handling of the upcoming cool-down, which is to be expected during a pattern change (developing strong -NAO/-AO, and rebounding PNA possibly becoming + by the end of the month). Models will continue to struggle resolving the differences until at-least the middle of next week, and even look for perturbations then. I am however seeing some rumblings of a potential interesting setup lake next weekend and the early part of the following week (28th-30th) as the PNA may go positive (which the Canadian seems to really like), and the high latitude blocking tandem either is close to peaking, or just peaked.

Nothing can really be drawn from the MOJO as it just went into the circle of death and is forecasted (by the GFS ens mean) to stay there for at-least the next week, subject to change of course. Based off of Allan's MOJO page, Phase 1 & 2, and to a lesser extent 8 in December are cold phases for the EC historically speaking.

ensplume_full.gif

The 0z Op Canadian is very deep with the trough, taking sub 540dm thickness into most of NC and really cranking the PNA ridge. It's ens mean is much more subdued, even more-so than the ECMWF op and ens mean's. The op does however show a very strong low near Newfoundland (50-50 position), and the mean does to but NE of the classic postion. And what is that off the mid-Atlantic?

0z op ECMWF only shows a glancing blow from the cold air, despite continuing with a very strong -NAO through the extended. Pacific looks to break the pattern down in the East and keep the cold air moving along. However, its ens mean has higher heights working into the Pacific NW and Inter-mountain west, so a majority of members are at-least more favorable in holding on to the +PNA. The possible 50-50 low is sig further west than what the Canadian shows and subsequently has the low off the EC well OTS. However, the mean is pretty close to where we want a 50-50 and in agreement with the CMC.

0z op GFS similar to the EC in a glancing blow, but sig colder. Pattern looks to break down in the Pac as the ridge between HI and BC is disrupted by a low pressure area (only model to show this). Ens mean shows the 50-50 low in a similar position to the CMC mean.

In summary, still a long way to go, but something to keep an eye on over the next week. From past experiences on this board, models tend to break a pattern down too quickly, generally speaking. I am not sold that this will be a glancing blow, like the operational euro shows, nor am I buying into ad extreme like the canadian, or even 6z GFS. Best course going foreword is the middle road like always from this range. >10F negative temp departures, starting next weekend and lasting for 2-3 days. As is almost always the case, the further north you are, the higher likelihood of actually realizing sig-cold. Regarding a possible storm around the end of the month (28-30th), the pattern has the potential with the major indices going into favorable states for cold and troughiness along the EC, as well as a strong lp center forecasted to be near the 50-50 position. :popcorn:

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EmersonGA

EmersonGA

Posted
Posted

Didn't know Tech had an undergrad Met. degree. When I went for my degree in the early 90's they did not have an undergrad Met. degree. Ended up at UNC-Asheville which isn't too far away plus the mountains are awesome.

They have an Earth and Atmospheric Sciences degree. I don't know when it started but it was there when I was in the early 2000s. I took their introductory class and it was kind of boring. I wanted to transfer into that major when I failed Calc 2 but they required that I retake it. I ended up finding another major that hated Calculus as much as me.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

They have an Earth and Atmospheric Sciences degree. I don't know when it started but it was there when I was in the early 2000s. I took their introductory class and it was kind of boring. I wanted to transfer into that major when I failed Calc 2 but they required that I retake it. I ended up finding another major that hated Calculus as much as me.

Calc 2 is the hard one, after that it kind of becomes fluent and 3 is a breeze... Partial DiffEQ sucked though and I would not wish that class on anyone. I do not know how I made it through that class. Professor was from Poland, barley spoke english, but did give wicked curves on the exams. I think I only passed one test with a raw score, failed the final outright, and still came out with a A. :thumbsup:

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

Posted
Posted

Didn't know Tech had an undergrad Met. degree. When I went for my degree in the early 90's they did not have an undergrad Met. degree. Ended up at UNC-Asheville which isn't too far away plus the mountains are awesome.

They do (as said above). From what I understand its come a long ways too. They have the only one in the state I believe. I would love to go out of state but the costs are too high. Thats what I get for being poor I guess though. I thought Armstrong University in Savannah had one but apparantly not.

I'm not horrible at math although it sucks because I took AP Calc (only AP class offered at my high school), but had a sucky, first year teacher (they ran the good one off in hopes of getting rid of the AP classes completely) and pretty much taught myself all I know. I hate differential equations and really don't understand them yet. We didn't really get much into them either though. Having to take pre-calc here next semester. Good refresher course I guess.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Looks great. Just can't get too excited yet. I have to remind myself that is a long ways off.

Come on Brick, you can do better than that! GET PUMPED!!

Love the 384 snow depth. Give me that for tomorrow, and we can talk.

My rules from last year. Under 24 hrs I will get excited..

My rules from last year: When the snow is falling, get excited. haha...

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