rosie Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Before everyone gets all worked up about the new Euro, *every* ensemble member is less deep with the trough than the Op run in the 228-240 hour time frame. It will get colder here, but probaby not as much as the Euro Op suggests. Fine with me, unless there is a chance of snow cold dry weather does nothing for me except empty my bank account faster. I am with ya on that, no snow and it may as well be warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Like I have said, it is always 10 days out from today , then 10 from tomorrow and so on. Actually by this time next Thurs the front should be pushing thru. Next Friday it will be cold so its only 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 How does it stack up to SV Platinum? I don't know what you get on that site but the accupro is well worth the price. 29.99 a month. I still think they give a one month free trial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Before everyone gets all worked up about the new Euro, *every* ensemble member is less deep with the trough than the Op run in the 228-240 hour time frame. It will get colder here, but probaby not as much as the Euro Op suggests. Fine with me, unless there is a chance of snow cold dry weather does nothing for me except empty my bank account faster. I don't have access to the individual panels, but the 12z ens mean is deeper compared to the 0z. The general flavor for the past week (?) has been a cool down around Thanksgiving weekend Brian, so I am not sure what you mean by the proverbial 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Like today is the 18th, and shows the coldest weather for Atlanta starting on the 28th and so on...Yesterday it was the 27th, before the 26th, you get the idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Like today is the 18th, and shows the coldest weather for Atlanta starting on the 28th and so on...Yesterday it was the 27th, before the 26th, you get the idea... No, The cold air comes in behind the storm on Thanksgiving. The same as it's been modeled for most of the week. Nothing has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Like today is the 18th, and shows the coldest weather for Atlanta starting on the 28th and so on...Yesterday it was the 27th, before the 26th, you get the idea... Actually the GFS has been pretty consistent and now with the Euro it's past couple of runs it's really catching on. It's been getting closer it wasn't like on 7th the cold was showing up on the 17th. I think we started seeing this around the 14th...and since then it keeps getting closer and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Hope you guys are right, thanks for the clarification. I really love cold weather, snow or not. Especially after this endless Summer. Looks like we are headed for 70's again before the cold wave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Actually the GFS has been pretty consistent and now with the Euro it's past couple of runs it's really catching on. It's been getting closer it wasn't like on 7th the cold was showing up on the 17th. I think we started seeing this around the 14th...and since then it keeps getting closer and closer. Correct, and the idea was getting kicked around on Eastern prior to that as the Global was showing epic cold to end Nov on the 360-something plus panels for several days off and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Correct, and the idea was getting kicked around on Eastern prior to that as the Global was showing epic cold to end Nov on the 360-something plus panels for several days off and on. No offense, but epic cold is not highs in the 40's. That is really nothing unusual at all for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 No offense, but epic cold is not highs in the 40's. That is really nothing unusual at all for this time of year. 40's for Atlanta at thanksgiving is pretty dang cold. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KATL/1972/11/25/PlannerHistory.html?dayend=25&monthend=11&yearend=1972&req_city=The+Hartsfield+Atlanta+International&req_state=GA&req_statename=Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 No offense, but epic cold is not highs in the 40's. That is really nothing unusual at all for this time of year. Did you miss the point of what I was saying? I stated the global had the general idea of a cool down from way out in la-la land. I never said the upcoming cold-blast was going to be epic, only what the model was showing off and on almost a week ago (and -15C @ 850 and -35C @ H5 here is epic for Nov, and even Dec, and yes it showed it several times in the 14-16 day range. So, please take a moment to comprehend my post before pulling the reply trigger. Furthermore, none of us know how and if (although confidence is building) this will play out. That is part of the hobby that makes it intriguing as you can look at all available data and form hypotheses, but no one knows completely until game time. High's next weekend in ATL could be in the 60's, who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Did you miss the point of what I was saying? I stated the global had the general idea of a cool down from way out in la-la land. I never said the upcoming cold-blast was going to be epic, only what the model was showing off and on almost a week ago (and -15C @ 850 and -35C @ H5 here is epic for Nov, and even Dec, and yes it showed it several times in the 14-16 day range. So, please take a moment to comprehend my post before pulling the reply trigger. Furthermore, none of us know how and if (although confidence is building) this will play out. That is part of the hobby that makes it intriguing as you can look at all available data and form hypotheses, but no one knows completely until game time. High's next weekend in ATL could be in the 60's, who knows... Sorry, no need to get defensive, I am still learning all of this ...Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 No offense, but epic cold is not highs in the 40's. That is really nothing unusual at all for this time of year. Also I was the one who said 40's and I said I am in no way a met so please don't hedge your bets on my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 40's for Atlanta at thanksgiving is pretty dang cold. http://www.wundergro...atename=Georgia Honestly, those stats just don't seem that accurate.....Charlotte is about the same as Atlanta too, weather wise that is. Thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Honestly, those stats just don't seem that accurate.....Charlotte is about the same as Atlanta too, weather wise that is. Thanks though. Well, Charlotte is about the same as Atlanta, albeit a few degrees colder and the chance at a sub-freezing low is a good deal higher. Point is, 40s this time of year is pretty cool. It may not be epic cold, but nonetheless, it classifies as cold as it is at least 10-15 degrees below average. http://www.wundergro...11&yearend=1972 The Average High Temperature is 59 F with a historical range of 46 F to 78 FThe Average Low Temperature is 40 F with a historical range of 29 F to 60 F There is a 0% chance of a Hot Day (temperature over 90°F / 32°C). (0 days out of 15 in historical record) Most consecutive days found in historic record: 0 There is a 40% chance of a Warm Day (temperature over 60°F / 16°C). (6 days out of 15 in historical record) Most consecutive days found in historic record: 0 There is a 33% chance of a Freezing Day (temperature below 32°F / 0°C). (5 days out of 15 in historical record) Most consecutive days found in historic record: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 <br />Before everyone gets all worked up about the new Euro, *every* ensemble member is less deep with the trough than the Op run in the 228-240 hour time frame. It will get colder here, but probaby not as much as the Euro Op suggests. Fine with me, unless there is a chance of snow cold dry weather does nothing for me except empty my bank account faster.<br /><br /><br />Great point. Just from following the models and what they show out in the future for e past years, whenever it's an extreme or record solution it rarely verifies at that extreme. Otherwise it wouldn't be considered 'record breaking' or 'extreme'.<br />No offense, but<i> <b>epic cold</b></i> is not highs in the 40's. That is really nothing unusual at all for this time of year.<br /> Depends on your perspective. 40s for highs is pretty darn cold for ga In November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Now accuweather has highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. (Atlanta)..big deal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Now accuweather has highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. (Atlanta)..big deal.... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=katl That is practically the same thing as the accuweather forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Great, all we need now is "blue kazoo" to finish this one off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Although Brian isn't happy with below avg. temps in HOTlanta after Turkey day, I'm pretty stoked about it FMY. As most all very knowledgeable METS on this board have pointed out this should/could be the beginning of a colder and stormier than average 30+days. If that doesn't tickle your funny then there's something wrong with ya in my opinion...lol And if all this verifies then note it that the GooFuS picked up on it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Although Brian isn't happy with below avg. temps in HOTlanta after Turkey day, I'm pretty stoked about it FMY. As most all very knowledgeable METS on this board have pointed out this should/could be the beginning of a colder and stormier than average 30+days. If that doesn't tickle your funny then there's something wrong with ya in my opinion...lol And if all this verifies then note it that the GooFuS picked up on it first. I have no problem with cold if there is snow, sleet or anything with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Hey, I'm happy about it! Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Hey, I'm happy about it! Bring it on! I knew most would be, just can't believe there's already a naysayer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 just can't believe there's already a naysayer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Now accuweather has highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. (Atlanta)..big deal.... Whoa lordy I might have to bring my fainting girl back. The thing to remember is don't believe anything at face value...especially temps from a weather site a week away. It could be epic cold, just cold, or even torch...we won't know until that day is actually on us. However most signs point to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Now accuweather has highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. (Atlanta)..big deal.... Long-range Accuweather forecasts = Junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 8 or 10 days back a model was showing 850's at a record breaking level. That usually means one of two things when we finally get there.. 70's, or slightly below normal If we get some below normal it will be a nice surprise. Now if we get an omega with a cross polar jet..I'll be off to a good winter, but I won't be disappointed with slightly below nights for a few days. Turkey is always better with some cold. And some cad wind blowing in some Atlantic drizzle would make me quite happy, if nothing else happens. It was very cloudy here this morning, and some rain was on radar, but it never hit the ground. Turned out to be a sunny mildish day after a cool start. Late in the afternoon, I was in amongst the trees when I thought I was hearing some of the immensely illusive clear air sleet, but closer inspection showed it was birds working on the pine cones, way, way up there. Man, I'm Jonesing for winter weather, after this torturous summer and fall...hearing clear air sleet But that patter in the leaves sent my radar squeeling...I was headed for the sled, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Long-range Accuweather forecasts = Junk. NICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Whoa lordy I might have to bring my fainting girl back. The thing to remember is don't believe anything at face value...especially temps from a weather site a week away. It could be epic cold, just cold, or even torch...we won't know until that day is actually on us. However most signs point to cold. Let me add my opinion here. 40's for highs in Atlanta with sunny skies is cold for this time of year. What I consider epic for November would be -20 degree departures and lower. Normal highs and lows for Charlotte for the last week in November is around 59/39. So, 39/19 would be truly cold for that period. By the way, the record low max and minimum for the 28th are only 39/20 respectively. Of course the famous November 1950 arctic outbreak was around that timeframe and we witnessed sub-freezing high temps but that was short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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