Weather Czar Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I love winter, and I love the GFS. It's hilarious..Cold looks EAST to me... ...By the way, does anyone have that JB link about the east coast getting something? Was he discussing this in his paid subscriber blog or is it something else? Just wondering... Here is a little about what he talked about yesterday. But here I am, on Nov. 16, making this statement... We have the setup for a lot of lake effect around the corner, the middle of next week through the weekend, and one of the few setups for a major blockbuster nor'easter of the winter should set itself up early or mid-December. I like the looks of this whole thing, from where I sit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Here is a little about what he talked about yesterday. But here I am, on Nov. 16, making this statement... We have the setup for a lot of lake effect around the corner, the middle of next week through the weekend, and one of the few setups for a major blockbuster nor'easter of the winter should set itself up early or mid-December. I like the looks of this whole thing, from where I sit now. Mid-December...I like it...Thanks, I keep telling myself I'll subscribe but never get around to it, might just do it this season. I can't wait to see more quality posters dissect some of this stuff in the next 10 days, lets get this Southeast forum movin' like a big dog is headed our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Mid-December...I like it...Thanks, I keep telling myself I'll subscribe but never get around to it, might just do it this season. I can't wait to see more quality posters dissect some of this stuff in the next 10 days, lets get this Southeast forum movin' like a big dog is headed our way! It is worth it with all the models you get. They have upgraded the Euro so now you can get 925mb temps, QPF amounts skew-t plots. Really cool! I even think they have a 1 month free trial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Big Frosty, subscribes, so maybe he can give some JB info. As for the gfs 18z run. Cold gets in here day 8 and until day 15, in fact it keeps NC below normal the entire period, then shows a lake cutter towards the end going by and probably reinforcing cold air towards SE. Have no access to euro day 10, so need someone who's seen it today to provide details in regards to LR in order to compare apples to oranges in the model world. Have to say gFS has been consistent in showing what I described above w/ regards to LR. It's getting under 10 days and still singing the same tune. Should be interesting if it holds serve and the cold deleivers around turkey day. Hopefully the pattern in the pacific evolves and locks in like the gfs advertises. As Robert alluded to a few days ago, this is how events (pattern) got underway last year. Sure it want lock in for 90 days like 09-10, but maybe everyone is missing some LR signal and we get lucky. I subscribe to him as well, he mentioned something about wave of energy here for Thanksgiving. He said didn't know if it would go west of us or along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Big Frosty, subscribes, so maybe he can give some JB info. As for the gfs 18z run. Cold gets in here day 8 and until day 15, in fact it keeps NC below normal the entire period, then shows a lake cutter towards the end going by and probably reinforcing cold air towards SE. Have no access to euro day 10, so need someone who's seen it today to provide details in regards to LR in order to compare apples to oranges in the model world. Have to say gFS has been consistent in showing what I described above w/ regards to LR. It's getting under 10 days and still singing the same tune. Should be interesting if it holds serve and the cold deleivers around turkey day. Hopefully the pattern in the pacific evolves and locks in like the gfs advertises. As Robert alluded to a few days ago, this is how events (pattern) got underway last year. Sure it want lock in for 90 days like 09-10, but maybe everyone is missing some LR signal and we get lucky. he said we should have a real cold December and that would be our best chance for any wintry weather and then its mild after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Here's a little JB tidbit............ In the meantime, the Big Dog keeps delivering the Thanksgiving goodies with the threat of snow and ice on the pressing Arctic air mass that is coming in. The last five days of November are liable to be the coldest east of the Mississippi since at least 2002, perhaps since 1996 and in the extreme case, 1989. He says SNOW possible in nc mountains around Thanksgiving depends on how far the front has pressed as to where the snow/ice sets up He also says the east better get what you can in December cause after that it's OVER ............ The period starting the middle of next week through around Christmas is liable to be the highlight of the winter for much of the eastern part of the United States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Figures the coldest air comes in while I'm down in Orlando... Down there until the 28-29! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Figures the coldest air comes in while I'm down in Orlando... Down there until the 28-29! You and me both. I'm heading to the AL Gulf Coast. It'll be brisk by their standards, nothing special though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Here's a little JB tidbit............ In the meantime, the Big Dog keeps delivering the Thanksgiving goodies with the threat of snow and ice on the pressing Arctic air mass that is coming in. The last five days of November are liable to be the coldest east of the Mississippi since at least 2002, perhaps since 1996 and in the extreme case, 1989. He says SNOW possible in nc mountains around Thanksgiving depends on how far the front has pressed as to where the snow/ice sets up He also says the east better get what you can in December cause after that it's OVER ............ The period starting the middle of next week through around Christmas is liable to be the highlight of the winter for much of the eastern part of the United States Thanks guys, I know he'll ride the Jan-Feb winters over train till the end, because thats his forecast, But for Dec to be good and the other 2 months to be awash, then 1or 2 things will have to change, Meaning the Nao goes and stays positive and/or he's banking on the pacific becoming our worst enemy thanks to la-Nina. I don;t see how we make it through Dec with the pacific on our side, then all of a sudden it becomes more unfavorable when La-Nina has probablly already peaked as I type, Also others have debated we are or have been averaging negatve NAO consistently for several months now. There is debate that we may be in some sort of long term cycle featuring the nao staying negative, but only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm gonna miss the snow. Just want to at least get some cold nights to use my fireplace here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Thanks guys, I know he'll ride the Jan-Feb winters over train till the end, because thats his forecast, But for Dec to be good and the other 2 months to be awash, then 1or 2 things will have to change, Meaning the Nao goes and stays positive and/or he's banking on the pacific becoming our worst enemy thanks to la-Nina. I don;t see how we make it through Dec with the pacific on our side, then all of a sudden it becomes more unfavorable when La-Nina has probablly already peaked as I type, Also others have debated we are or have been averaging negatve NAO consistently for several months now. There is debate that we may be in some sort of long term cycle featuring the nao staying negative, but only time will tell. He is not saying winter will be over completely, Just that the best of winter in the east will be from the Thanksgiving to Christmas period. I hope he is wrong and busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The 0Z Euro sped up the cold shot considerably and is in fair agreement with the GFS on at least the initial cold shot's timing and intensity looking at the free data. 36 here this morning, nice and brisk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Bottomed out at 32.0 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 29 here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 35.9 here and that was at 3:19 am, then started getting warmer. The last two temp anomaly plots are starting to agree with each other and show a -5 temp difference for our area and western NC on Sunday (28th) with a low parked over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Seems the ideas I put forth in the post yesterday morning about the Euro bias of holding energy in the southwest erroneously long on yesterday's 0z run is likely correct. The 0z run today has corrected, and its ensemble is in lock step agreement. Going to get pretty chilly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Made it down to 32 here this am with a heavy frost, which I was not expecting. Models are continuing to struggle with the handling of the upcoming cool-down, tentatively slated for Thanksgiving weekend. The 0z big three have no continuity amongst one another which makes impossible at this range to ascertain even remote details, except for general timing. What happened to the block on the GFS? At-least the CMC and EC have that in common generally speaking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Seems the ideas I put forth in the post yesterday morning about the Euro bias of holding energy in the southwest erroneously long on yesterday's 0z run is likely correct. The 0z run today has corrected, and its ensemble is in lock step agreement. Going to get pretty chilly... Matt, Great blog as usual today! Looking forward to the pending cold wave late next week..... Keep up the good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Thanks! Looking forward to the cold as well. Last year it was quite cold and exceptionally windy when we went up to the mountains to pick the Christmas tree....look to be at least cold this time. Matt, Great blog as usual today! Looking forward to the pending cold wave late next week..... Keep up the good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Seems the ideas I put forth in the post yesterday morning about the Euro bias of holding energy in the southwest erroneously long on yesterday's 0z run is likely correct. The 0z run today has corrected, and its ensemble is in lock step agreement. Going to get pretty chilly... I wonder why it does that... It seems like every winter we here about that, Euro holding energy back over the sw, our placing to much interaction with diving short-waves and whatever energy is around the 4-corners. EC seems to be the quickest in this package with getting the cold in here, and out. GFS a little slower, but still a glancing blow for round one before an even more sig cool down comes (but that is way out there). The GGEM has the block displaced between Greenland and the Hudson Bay, and has the motherload (for late Nov terms) coming down at 240. It also cranks the Ridge over the inter-mountain west, which the GFS does a couple days later. That is really what need in this pattern to set-up troughiness along the EC and take advantage of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Rain not far from Atlanta, very light , but has become very cloudy and sitting at 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 down to 36.1 IMBY. Scattered frost on the rooftops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Seems the ideas I put forth in the post yesterday morning about the Euro bias of holding energy in the southwest erroneously long on yesterday's 0z run is likely correct. The 0z run today has corrected, and its ensemble is in lock step agreement. Going to get pretty chilly... Yep, you were indeed correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Blind squirrel finds the nut sometimes... Yep, you were indeed correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Down to 33 this morning with heavy frost. Looking forward to next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Can someone elaborate on how cold it might get?? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Blind squirrel finds the nut sometimes... If you're a blind squirrel then I'm an earthworm regurgitated to feed a bird's chicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Can someone elaborate on how cold it might get?? Thanks. From the GFS and Euro looks like temps in the low 40's for highs. It would probably be more like the upper 40's to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 From the GFS and Euro looks like temps in the low 40's for highs. It would probably be more like the upper 40's to begin with. Honestly, that is not really cold......:gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Hahaha....that's excellent. Well crafted... If you're a blind squirrel then I'm an earthworm regurgitated to feed a bird's chicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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